Thread by @BonicMichael

"Did Putin’s 2007 Munich Speech Predict the Ukraine Crisis?
Putin’s Munich speech was an important diplomatic warning to the United States and its allies that Russia’s patience with NATO’s encroachment was at an end
cato.org/commentary/did… via @CatoInstitute

2/Putin lays out in completely rational terms Russia's views & concerns about NATO expansion: "An especially pointed warning came when Putin addressed the annual Munich Security Conference on March 10, 2007. He took direct aim at the notion so popular in the United States during

3/"the 1990s and early 2000s that the international system was unipolar and that Washington’s power was unchallengeable…
“NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders,” although as yet, we “do not react to these actions at all.” NATO expansion, he stated, “represents a

4/"serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?”"

5/Putin says in his Munich Speech: "“However one might embellish this term, at the end of the day it refers to one type of situation, namely one centre of authority, one centre of force, one centre of decision‐ making. It is a world in which there is one master, one sovereign.”

6/"Putin emphatically rejected that model. Implicitly referring to the U.S.-led military interventions in the Balkans and Iraq, he stated: “Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force — military force — in international relations, force that is plunging the

7/"world into an abyss of permanent conflicts.” “And of course,” Putin continued, “this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasize this — no one feels safe!”"
One word describes Putin's perceptions & concerns

8/The failure of NATO & the US to heed Russia's protestations over NATO expansion & legitimate security concerns OVER THE DECADES ultimately wore Russia's patience out. Ignoring or arrogantly dismissing Russia's contention that "one centre of authority, one centre of force, one

9/"centre of decision‐making [where] there is one master, one sovereign" (NATO), whose #1 stated adversary is Russia was an egregious dereliction in diplomatic relations. It became untenable to the Russian Federation and finally Putin acted. There is no escaping this truth.

10/The capitulation to the fallacy that: "Putin is a madman. He has always wanted to restore Russia to it's former imperial borders. He won't stop at Ukraine. The Baltics, Romania & Poland are next..." is a psychologic retreat into rationalization decoupled from reason employed

11/as a buffer against reality. The views, then, of Kasparov and Lindsey Graham are heavily subjective, based upon belief, wrong perceptions, misunderstanding, emotion & failure to use critical thinking or logical analysis.

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1503029605220773894?s=20&t=cm8cPQr_d_OLqFGeFNUwMw

12/Russia warned the West that the buck of NATO stops at Ukraine. The West dismissed Russia's warnings. Russia's perceptions, fears & mistrust of NATO & the US led it to taking action to ensure Ukraine never joins NATO one way or another. And the world is now paying the price.

@threadreaderapp compile