1. Russia has likely depleted its supplies of Iskander and other high-end munitions. I would imagine that some of the guidance and other high-tech parts of the missiles require parts that Russians don't have and can't buy.
2. If China were to help Russia, our sanctions could destroy the Chinese economy. China plays the long game. Destruction of Russia's military will make China the only superpower on the Asian continent. I think the deal that Xi negotiated for oil and gas is still in effect
3. and Russia is likely getting well-below market for the energy they supply China. I expect Putin will lash out at the Chinese when they turn a deaf ear to Putin's desperate cries to save him from his Ukrainian Waterloo that I predicted before the shooting started.
4. Were you ever a lifeguard? Drowning people are dangerous.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Mar 14
1. After today's announcement that the International Criminal Court (ICC) was soon to issue a ruling on the March 1st referrals, I took a look at the ICC website. I had noted that Russia was not a Rome Convention signatory and neither is Ukraine. But with a caveat that I don't
2. know much about the ICC, it appears that Ukraine's earlier 2013 and continuing submission to ICC jurisdiction gives the court sufficient jurisdiction. What I don't know is whether it can issue a ruling that will find Russia, and Putin in particular, have engaged in
3. agressive war and war crimes. I think the reason that the Kremlin produced the bioweapon fabrication is to be able to pose a defense. I presume it won't work but if I'm right that it was what prompted the bioweapon farce, it may mean the Kremlin expects to be charged or at
Read 8 tweets
Mar 10
1. The Russian's have been engaging in bombing hospitals in Syria for about six or seven years. What they do in Ukraine is shocking because they are doing to white Europeans. But that's the Slavic Nazi's entire point.

#Slovyansk. I covered that bizarre part of the
2. first Russo-Ukrainian war. Putin had the same Schick but was more open about it being a Slavs vs Rus battle. I recall Slovyansk was a site of some ancient ethnic slaughter and Putin tried his own Eastern European #Charlottesville with guns but the game didn't really catch on
3. and his army receded into Donbass, an assortment of criminals and misfits. Finally, Russia intervened and still holds the ground. This time Putin didn't try his Savs vs Rus. He just said it was Nazis and thought that would be enough when, even last time, with a much more
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
1. Russia is engaged in using human shields in Mariupol and other places. They know that once the civilians are gone the artillery can pound them into oblivion. So like ISIS Russians hold hostages. We need to treat Russian soldiers like ISIS. This time hold the war crimes trials
2. not just keep them in camps forever like the international coalition forces in Syria. Russians who are less-culpable should serve time and be released. Officers who ordered war crimes should be tried and if convicted face the appropriate sentences for capital crimes.
3. Russian diplomats and other officials who were party to these crimes should be charged and face the same fate as they faced at Nuremberg. No immunity for crimes against humanity. We need to make clear that there is never return to normal unless Russia withdraws immediately.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
1. I don't know if they ever prosecute people for it, but I think US law forbids joining a foreign military. See 18 U.S. Code § 959 - Enlistment in foreign service. law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18…
From what I'm seeing a lot of Americans may be headed to Ukraine to defend it.
2. The reason for this post has to do with the ability of US prosecutors to charge Russian government officials and Russian military service members with war crimes under US law because under US law, the maximum penalty for war crimes involving death is death.
3. So as the EU and the ICC are looking at Russian war crimes, I don't think they have the authority to impose a death penalty, but we do. But it has to be a US National. Basically that's any US citizen or green card holder. Others possibly but those two groups for sure.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
1. Banning the import of a fungible commodity like oil is difficult and not likely to have any appreciable impact on Russian output. If we are going to destroy Russia's oil production the way is to strictly ban energy equipment or technology going to Russia via export controls.
2. But NB lowering global supply will increase prices. It's simple economics. Our focus for short-term relief in oil prices should be directed to the conduct of the OPEC cartel. Make the members pay a price that could include US. ban on their elites.
3. Focus on Russia may be politically satisfying but is not likely to stop Russia from profiting and will give us a false sense of having addressed the issue. If we're going to destroy the Russian economy, impairing its oil and gas output is the way. But we will also harm
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
1. Looking at Putin's apparent declining physical appearance made me think of the film "Apocalypse Now" and how to end Putin's reign of terror. The film was reported at the time to have been loosely based on "Heart of Darkness," a 1899 novella by Joseph Conrad,
2. about a ferry captain in the Congo. It was based on Conrad's life. He had become the master of a Congo ferry when the captain became ill. His novella was centered around the character of Kurtz, who was caught up in the world of what was described as
3. savagery in the heart of Africa. But in the film, the character of Colonel Kurtz took savagery to a new level. In the book, Kurtz dies of natural causes. In the film Coppola chose to delve into another obscure 19the century literary work, the Golden Bough.
Read 7 tweets

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