Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 14, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This is the single most important logistical map for this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If other Ukraine military situation maps do not include rail lines like this.

They are misinforming you.
When the Ukrainians announced the destruction of a Russian force of 200 vehicles and he destruction of a headquarters in Melitopol.

It means the rail head at Melitopol and those Russian advanced lines going north & east from there are in grave peril
2/
...because a Ukrainian Army unit of at least Brigade size is sitting on their lines of communications.

Kyiv _IS NOT_ cut off from rail resupply from NATO.

The Ukrainian forces at the Donbas _ARE NOT_ cut off from major resupply.
3/
This 'minimalist' Putin Regime strategic territorial objective in Ukraine is nowhere near reality.

4/
Returning to the Ukrainian raid at Melitopol, It isn't a true surprise.

Nor are any of the others including the Kherson rocket artillery kill of 30 Russian helicopters

It is Gen Zobrodskyi's 2014 Donbas raiding doctrine executed Ukrainian Army wide
5/
Gen Zobrodskyi's raids in 2014 saved the Ukrainian Army, twice.

Phil Karber walks you through them a this link.

6/
It is the Zobrodskyi Raiding doctrine that Ukraine is repeatedly using to cut off the tentacles of Russian advance by shattering Russian Army logistics over and over again.

Give that Karber link a listen and you will understand the patterns of The Ukraine War.

7/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 17
I've been involved with three US Army FMTV reset programs.

So this newest report from Ukraine's Defense Express on the the repairability problems with Russian AFV's out of their reserves is so much fun to share with you all.

1/ Image
Defense Express pulled an article from the No. 10 issue of the Russian magazine "Material and Technical Support" on how horrid the vehicles coming out of reserve are plus problems with battle damaged reserve vehicles.

2/
en.defence-ua.com/analysis/repai…
The 2nd paragraph starts with this:

"The central takeaway from this publication is that the actual repairability of Russian tanks is 3-5 times lower than what is claimed in official manuals. This discrepancy has extended repair times for equipment by at least 15-20%."

3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 16
Ukraine’s claims to have produced 100 Peklo (Hell) cruise missiles over the past three months.

This works out to about 1.1 Peklo a day, but manufacturing production lines don't work like that.

Peklo Manufacturing 🧵

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
The infographic figure below is a typical commercial production line curve.

Ukraine's stated production and use of the Peklo (Hell) cruise missile marks it as being on the 'start of production to market entry' ramp up part of the curve below.

2/ Image
Over two dozen Peklo were shown in this public unveiling by Ukraine, which is over 1/4 of the stated production to date.

How many were pre-production prototypes or low rate initial pilot production models isn't knowable.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 15
This is Russian exceptionalism in action again.

The Putin Regime took old riverine tankers - Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft-239 - to sea:

1/
unian.ua/world/richkovi…
"According to Andriy Klymenko , head of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies , both vessels are very old and have a "river" class, which implies certain limitations.

2/
He published and commented on the relevant map, which indicates the approximate location of the tanker disaster.

"It is about 8 miles from the seaport of Taman (a transshipment port south of the Kerch Strait).

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15
This was a very interesting operation by Ukraine to destroy a 'partisan immobilized' fuel train with Switchblade 600's, to burn the fuel.

The burning fuel will require that the annealed rails under the cars to be replaced to prevent derailments.

RuAF rail vulnerability🧵
1/
This will require a Russian military railway service train to be deployed to this spot for possible future Ukrainian Switchblade 600 follow up strikes.

2/
I've mentioned the vulnerability of Russian trains to Switchblade 600 back in April 2022.

A Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead is powerful enough to destroy the control section of a rail engine...
3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 8
I've been thinking on what is going on to reduce Russia VKS glide bomb attacks as shown

There are many possible reasons.

Fewer Russian glide bomb drops 🧵
1/
My first thought was to wonder if:

"Are we seeing Russian supply chain problems across its PGM production base due to foreign exchange shortages?"

Russia's Shaheed clones have new and inferior Chinese servo motors.⬇️
2/
I asked around and I was pointed to Ukrainian GNSS (AKA global positioning satellite signals) Spoofing as a more likely cause of the Shaheed-136 clone failures.

Also, that would have nothing with reduced glide bomb drops.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 7
In another round of very useful translation, @sambendett points out the Russians have learned that drones are how combat power is measured in the 21st century.

The Russians didn't share drone tech with the SAA at scale.

Ukraine did with the HTS starting in June 2024.
1/
So the Assad regime fell.

Had Russia sent it's 'troublesome' drone units to Syria, rather than in meat grinder infantry assaults. Things might have turned out differently.

Dmitry "Goodwin" Lysakovsky was a legendary Russian extremist who became a drone
2/
...operator in the DPR army and stayed when it became Russian. 

"Goodwin" ran cross ways of his regimental commander for calling him out for dealing drugs to his own troops on social media.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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