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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Mar 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is the single most important logistical map for this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If other Ukraine military situation maps do not include rail lines like this.

They are misinforming you.
When the Ukrainians announced the destruction of a Russian force of 200 vehicles and he destruction of a headquarters in Melitopol.

It means the rail head at Melitopol and those Russian advanced lines going north & east from there are in grave peril
2/
...because a Ukrainian Army unit of at least Brigade size is sitting on their lines of communications.

Kyiv _IS NOT_ cut off from rail resupply from NATO.

The Ukrainian forces at the Donbas _ARE NOT_ cut off from major resupply.
3/
This 'minimalist' Putin Regime strategic territorial objective in Ukraine is nowhere near reality.

4/
Returning to the Ukrainian raid at Melitopol, It isn't a true surprise.

Nor are any of the others including the Kherson rocket artillery kill of 30 Russian helicopters

It is Gen Zobrodskyi's 2014 Donbas raiding doctrine executed Ukrainian Army wide
5/
Gen Zobrodskyi's raids in 2014 saved the Ukrainian Army, twice.

Phil Karber walks you through them a this link.

6/
It is the Zobrodskyi Raiding doctrine that Ukraine is repeatedly using to cut off the tentacles of Russian advance by shattering Russian Army logistics over and over again.

Give that Karber link a listen and you will understand the patterns of The Ukraine War.

7/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 16
This is a useful survey as far as it goes...but it is missing the key factor in the Iranian Revolution.

That is, _Food_Insecurity_.

Food insecurity is as much a cause of the Iranian Revolution as Regime hatred.

Iranian Revolution Food Insecurity🧵
1/
The predominant effect of a 1.4 million rial to the dollar hyperinflation combined with Regime Security Force public lockdown is the Iranian lower class has been set up to starve.

The lower class cannot go to work to get money to buy food.


2/
Nor can Iran's lower class budget the money it has to plan what food it can buy week to week because of inflation.

Iran's hyperinflation has gone on long enough that the Iranian lower class has traded everything it can barter, already, for food.



3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 14
We really need to talk about the huge opportunity that Mullah financial corruption has given the Trump Administration to crash Iran's financial system with E-bombs, AKA non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse.

Wiping the financial records of failing Mullah banks in a revolution...

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...makes them very difficult to restore.

And surfacing those back up records makes them vulnerable to follow up E-bomb strikes.

Plus, how are the IRGC & Basij going to get paid?

2/
No one in their right mind thinks the IRGC & Basij will work for free, fighting a revolution without pay.

Mullah controlled bank electronics are needed to meet payroll.

The old USAF ALCM cruise missile was outfitted with the "CHAMP" E-Bomb for zorching enemy electronics.

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Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 12
If you haven't read the substack article linked below, do so immediately and consider this:

When you stack secure & uninterrupted digital text communications to Mullah Regime corruption and currency hyperinflation...

...the Mullah Regime is doomed. It's a matter of when, not if.

1/
What jumped out for me about @shanaka86 substack article was the implications of secure digital text communications for the Maoist model of Revolutionary warfare.

See the @grok summary of Mao's 4-level revolutionary model below. ⬇️

2/ Image
Maoist Level 1 & 2 warfare has never had the secure digital text communications Starlink provides.

This means a whole heck of a lot and shoots decades of counter-insurgency doctrine about controlling/blocking guerilla communications in the head.

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Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 10
Okay folks, we have to say at this point what is driving the uprising in Iran isn't the strength of the protests.

It is the WEAKNESS OF THE IRANIAN STATE. Basij commander Shoushtari's killing is the neon sign of Mullah-ocracy weakness. It had to be an inside job, reasons.

This means we need to talk about Russia's LAST PLANE OUT OF TEHRAN. 🧵
1/Image
Just as US military evacuations of Saigon and Kabul required securing the embassy & airport for evacuation.

Perhaps as soon as 48 hours from now, the Russian VDV will have to secure the Tehran airport to evacuate not only Iranian Mullah gold, but lots of Russian intel & technical experts.
2/Image
The Fall of Kabul made clear you not only need marines for ground security.

You also needed a USAF operation/maintenance squadron (-) for loading, refueling and operating air traffic control as you can't count on the locals to run the airport as the security situation collapses.
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Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 10
This:

>>Casualties are high on both sides

...argues that we are looking at a Regime Security Forces corruption-based THUG SHORTAGE.

In 2022 the IRGC & Basij had fire superiority & numbers to control situations when lethal force was used.

Now they are taking significant casualties.

1/
Where are the IRGC heavy weapons?

Where are the IRGC technicals with heavy machine guns to mow down crowds of protestors?

We should be seeing thousands of protestors shot, given the mobs seen on Tehran streets.

We are hearing numbers like ~217 in six Tehran hospitals.

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Just look how dense that protestor crowd is.

Just imagine the horror that one 12.7mm or 14.5 mm heavy machine gun technical could do to this crowd, given a willing IRGC crew.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 8
A lot of people have been spouting off that the failure of Air Defense in Venezuela means Chinese air defense is 💩.

Just...no. S-300's arrived in the Fall of 2025.

That isn't enough time to train competent operators, be they Cuban, Venezuelan, Russian or Chinese.
1/
Job training for a PATRIOT fire control enhanced operator requires 10 weeks of Basic Combat Training and 20 weeks of Advanced Individual Training with on-the-job instruction.

Russian S-300 are far worse than Patriot in terms of human interface & "plug and play" maintenance.
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They were literally designed to be operated by drafted Ukrainian university educated STEM students.

The Maduro regime didn't trust anyone from the Venezuelan middle class to operate the oil industry, let alone Russian and Chinese air defense equipment.

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Read 7 tweets

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