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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Mar 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is the single most important logistical map for this latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If other Ukraine military situation maps do not include rail lines like this.

They are misinforming you.
When the Ukrainians announced the destruction of a Russian force of 200 vehicles and he destruction of a headquarters in Melitopol.

It means the rail head at Melitopol and those Russian advanced lines going north & east from there are in grave peril
2/
...because a Ukrainian Army unit of at least Brigade size is sitting on their lines of communications.

Kyiv _IS NOT_ cut off from rail resupply from NATO.

The Ukrainian forces at the Donbas _ARE NOT_ cut off from major resupply.
3/
This 'minimalist' Putin Regime strategic territorial objective in Ukraine is nowhere near reality.

4/
Returning to the Ukrainian raid at Melitopol, It isn't a true surprise.

Nor are any of the others including the Kherson rocket artillery kill of 30 Russian helicopters

It is Gen Zobrodskyi's 2014 Donbas raiding doctrine executed Ukrainian Army wide
5/
Gen Zobrodskyi's raids in 2014 saved the Ukrainian Army, twice.

Phil Karber walks you through them a this link.

6/
It is the Zobrodskyi Raiding doctrine that Ukraine is repeatedly using to cut off the tentacles of Russian advance by shattering Russian Army logistics over and over again.

Give that Karber link a listen and you will understand the patterns of The Ukraine War.

7/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 11
The idea of Russia substituting artillery tubes with 122mm rockets fails on a couple of counts - accuracy and propellent mass.

These two things are related.

1/
The inaccuracy of the 122mm Grad rocket system is proverbial.

A full salvo of 40 rockets landing at 20 km range spreads over an area of up to 600 m x 600 m.

It is a wasteful weapon for tube artillery missions and is highly locatable when firing.

2/
 characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/studies/annex-…Image
The Ukrainian SSU has made that vulnerability abundantly clear recently in showing 16 Grad launcher truck kill videos.

3/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/ssu-ne…
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
Ukraine's SSU used long range FPV drones with radio repeater drone to do counter battery for killing sixteen GRAD 122mm multiple rocket launchers.

21st century artillery counter battery🧵
1/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/ssu-ne…
This YouTube video shows all the "greatest hits" with the SSU first person view (FPV) drones.

Ukrainian drone operators were able to steer the FPV's into the loaded rocket launcher where "cope cages" could not cover.


2/
This is a Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Matrice 300 RTK drone with relay antennas for extended range FPV drone counter battery strikes. ⬇️

Photo credits: Charitable Foundation “SOS palīdzība Ukrainas armijai”

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 9
I did an interview yesterday (Friday 8 Nov 2024) with @esherifftv on the lawfare going on between the Biden Administration and @elonmusk SpaceX over the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).

1/
Being a old DoD Quality staffer, I brought powerpoint slides.🤣

This 1st slide shows how the ITAR law defines what a "US person" is, versus the Dept. of Justice discrimination lawsuit claims under the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

2/ Image
The second slide shows how "illegal exports" under ITAR includes 'foreign persons' - everyone not a 'US person' - seeing a ITAr controlled technical data package inside the USA counts as a 'export' to the nation an asylee or a refugee comes from.

3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 5
Western media & political commentary are dominated by "doomers" predicting short & long term outcomes on the 'inexhaustibility' of Russia's personnel & equipment pools, despite overwhelming evidence that Russia is struggling badly.

Reality:
Russia is in a crisis of loss. 🧵
1/ See: https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/confirmed-russian-battlefield-equipment-losses-1730799222.html
The following are the things I've been tracking for some time:

1. The Russians are losing an infantry division every week to 10 days in terms of soldiers at a rate of between with a 1,100 to 1,700 and associated equipment.

2/ Image
2. The Russian artillery is getting shorter ranged over time from losing the ability to make barrels and liners for 152mm guns. We are seeing literal WW2 122mm artillery pieces, presumably from North Korean stocks, in the Donbas.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 3
This Warzone article is an example of one of the things that has been driving me bug house nuts watching the US Military deal with drones.

Recognizing the utter collapse of analytical rigor compared to the "Big Five"
1/
...procurement programs and the MLRS artillery rocket system in the late 1970's-to-early 1980's.

The post 1973 Arab Israeli War US Army understood the idea of "the logistical costs of a stowed kill."
2/ Image
The US Army kept the 105mm on the M1 in production so long because the depleted uranium (DU) 105mm "Long Rod" APFSDS could kill a early T-72 and you could carry 55 rounds versus 40 rounds for a 120mm gun firing a tungsten APDS or early DU APFSDS round.

3/ Image
Image
Image
Read 47 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 4
Thermite drones inside a bunker are all sorts of evil beyond burns.

My WW2 flame weapon research found that CO, carbon monoxide, fills the chemical bonds that O2 does in the lungs of air breathing fauna.

That means once CO hits those bonds in your lungs, you suffocate.

1/
What killed Imperial Japanese soldiers in WW2 "without a mark" inside bunkers was carbon monoxide poisoning, not a lack of O2.

Once you get enough CO in the lungs on the O2 chemical bonds.

No further O2 can get into the bloodstream and you suffocate.

2/ Image
I ran across that fact in a trip report of a US Army Chemical Warfare Service (CWS) medical doctor sent to Leyte to take blood samples from IJA corpses that died from flame weapons.

It didn't work out and the CWS used goats in bunkers hit with flamethrower weapons to get the CO poisoning medical data.

3/3Image
Read 4 tweets

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