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Mar 14 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Slowly dawning on even the most recalitrant minds that the weak and malleable Russia of the 1990s was a very strange exception & instead the Russian threat & resulting security problems will be one that our ancestors would have recognised .... but with the #DragonBear twist Image
I wrote this Australian #Realpolitik perspective (28 Feb 2022) on the West's Russia problem, both in terms of Russia's historic drivers & the West's mishandling of its Russian relationship for 30 years, esp as the #DragonBear pact now looms over Eurasia & the Indo-Pacific. Image
I wrote this last week on how we should approach "The Russian Problem", which applies similarly to China and Iran. All comments and criticisms are welcome. #Realpolitik #DragonBear

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2022/03/the-ru… Image
The NYT is reading my #DragonBear thread

nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opi… Image

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More from @GrayConnolly

Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 29
Good morning all on #VietnamVeteransDay From 1962-1975, approx 61,000 Australians served in the Vietnam War (521 killed in action and over 3000 wounded in action). Image
The Royal Australian Navy served in Vietnam from start to end. HMAS Brisbane (DDG41)("The Steel Cat") provided naval gunfire support to allied troops off the coast of Vietnam in 1971. Also the RAN Helicopter Flight Vietnam won a Unit Citation for Gallantry #vietnamveteransday ImageImageImageImage
Australian Centurion tanks patrolling in Vietnam.
Australian APCs harbouring up during a patrol against the Viet Cong. #vietnamveteransday ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 28
Reason that the Florida bill attracts such attention is it shines a light on the liberal pipeline of “but no one is talking to children about sex” which runs to “but if we are it is a good thing” … parallels past dealing esp in 1970s with pedophilia & CSA as not quite crimes
I did a thread here on this - the sexualisation of children has a long and sordid history in liberal politics … curiously the solid Old Left were morally normal on these issues ⬇️
It is not just the woke Left - the libertarians also do not see the sexualisation of children as a big deal. Whether you see children as to be protected by law or left to be preyed upon will become the next fault line of decadent societies
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 28
When man A insults, especially publicly, man B’s wife/girlfriend, then man A takes his own life into his hands. If man A then escapes with what looks like a mild slap from man B (unless a precursor to a duel?) then man A should count himself most fortunate. Every man knows this.
Otis Redding’s “When a man loves a woman” is one of the most insightful accounts of men and their strengths and weaknesses, virtues and vices, in respect of women since David and Bathsheba. Instead you have a generation raised on weird gender stuff written by miserable people
Ukraine is done now as an issue. The Will Smith / Chris Rock exchange now blots out whatever public memory there was of Ukraine. Media only mere hours away from saying the Smith v Rock incident was a diversionary plot paid for by the Russians
Read 4 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 23
As noted there are 3 different views of the RUS-UKR War:
- French @Armees_Gouv : RUS are making advances reflective of a campaign plan of annihilation
- UK MOD @DefenceHQ : RUS making advances against stubborn UKR resistance:
- US ISW @TheStudyofWar : RUS advance stalled
The British & French maps and assessments would be, I assume - I think correctly - put together by military/ministry staffs & these maps would be public versions of what goes up the chain of command.

What, by contrast, is the non-governmental US ISW analysis & map based on?
I did some digging and asked around, what is the basis for the more rosy & optimistic American view of the RUS-UKR war? Do the ISW get these anonymous "off the record" Pentagon briefings that one reads about here? And which are so at odds with the British and the French?
Read 12 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 20
Nutmeg is lazy and phoning it in.

Paprika is under appreciated beyond the Magyars.
Good morning to new Hungarian followers …
You can understand something of the Magyar identity when you are sensing that Hussar-like admixture of beef and paprika....ready to meet the advancing Ottomans
Read 6 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 19
I have tried to avoid the "Mean Girls" saga but it is difficult to overstate how much our unbiased etc Media - esp the ABC - have promoted Penny Wong & Kristina Keneally (no idea who Gallagher is...the wannabe group follower?) and denied the obvious about their conduct.
No serious person thinks, if this saga were occurring on the Coalition side, the ABC would be other than in a form of (further) meltdown, while the Guardian would have Murpharoo & Amy Remikis liveblogging Melbourne slam poets reacting to 'the revenge of the not quite patriarchy'
The tragedy of it all, amid many, is we actually need - esp on national security issues - to have a 'vital centre' where, whatever else we disagree on, we agree on A, B, C, to do with the defence and security of Australia. Kimberley Kitching, like Danby, was that vital centrist.
Read 7 tweets

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