Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID update: Based on European case increases, the US could see a new rise in COVID cases over the Spring.

The wave is likely to look different in several ways. 1/

In the UK and Germany, BA2, a variant of omicron we first saw in Denmark, is driving new case growth. BA2 is over 50% of cases. And cases are on the rise in the U.K. 2/

In the US, cases are still down. But 2 things are worth watching.
-Only 10% of cases are BA2 and since BA2 spreads approx 30% faster than omicron, expect it to follow Europe
-About 1/3 of our early warning wastewater sites are showing increases 3/

As we have seen throughout the pandemic, the US haas followed Europe by several weeks in our waves of cases. That may happen again here.

But what happens next is going to be different in every country based on what happened this last year. 4/

The factors that will influence how a rise in cases might look in the US are:
-the proportion of the country with prior omicron infection
-the percentage of non-omicron infected who are vaccinated, or if higher risk, boosted
-the state of US hospitals 5/

-An estimated 45% of the US has had omicron recently. That should be highly protective
-Those fully vaccinated but who haven’t had omicron should be vulnerable to infection from BA2, but largely won’t be hospitalized or worse
6/

Those without prior infection would be at most risk of infection.

Those who haven’t been infected but also aren’t vaccinated or boosted will be at highest risk of hospitalization.

So we could see lots of cases, but an even lower portion of ppl hospitalized than last wave.7/

Some implications

1- People who avoided omicron & haven’t been boosted should.

2- Kids who haven’t been vaccinated & are eligible should, particularly now that schools don’t require masking. 8/

3- Mask mandates may have come down but high quality masks are highly individually protective. For those at risk & those who want to avoid infection, if cases rise near you, pull them out. 9/

4- Congress failed to provide funding in the omnibus to maintain & build our arsenal. Applaud the focus on Ukraine but expect Congress to do more than one thing at a time. 10/

The public & state governors have moved past large scale restrictions, not just in the US but abroad.

But don’t let public attitudes betray 2 realities we need to keep in mind. 11/

First is the virus will continue to mutate with unknown outcomes. This is predictable. This is not endemic behavior.

Second is that the majority moving on doesn’t mean everyone is moving on or can move on. 12/

For vulnerable populations— from kids under 5 to those who are medically fragile to those who have chosen not to get vaccinated— things haven’t changed. Only the people around them have. /end