Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Mar 14, 2022 25 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Day 19 of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. Today I examine the implications of Russian personnel commitments and losses, and what this now means for their campaign. 1/25 (Image - @IAPonomarenko) Image
2/25 As always, a shout out to those reporting on the Russian invasion. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @IanPannell @ChristopherJM @KyivPost among others. Please follow them.
3/25 Almost a week ago, I explored the Russian campaign, and how it had already absorbed 100% of allocated forces. It is worth revisiting this issue, as we have seen the Russian forces adapt to this reality over the past week.
4/25 Russia committed around 55% of their total regular ground forces to their invasion of Ukraine. It was tactical risk. While there are forces still in Russia for reinforcements, they are either on other missions, in training, or of a lower quality (esp their reserves). Image
5/25 It is also a strategic risk. Russia has deployed a large proportion of its ground combat power on a single mission that it hoped would be over quickly. This was not a calculated risk by the Russians; it was a gamble. There is a big difference between the two in military ops.
6/25 Plan A was the ‘fast, cheap and easy’ campaign plan. Use light and airborne forces to seize Kyiv and other key points, capture government leaders and force a political accommodation from Ukraine. Within 48 hours, combat losses indicated to Russian commanders this had failed.
7/25 Therefore they needed a Plan B without a massive additional injection of forces. If the Russians had been clever as many thought, they would have wargamed worst case scenarios during the build-up phase of this invasion. Image - @doctrinatrix_C2 Image
8/25 They clearly did not wargame – or not rigorously enough if they did. But then again, these are the same folks who have talked up concepts like ‘strategies of limited action’. Image
9/25 So, the Russian campaign Plan B after day 2 of the war has been ‘creeping, multi-axis attrition’. It features lots more firepower, as well as destruction of smaller cities to set an example for Kyiv. Plan B also appeared to hope the Russian Air Force eventually turns up.
10/25 The latest Pentagon background brief notes Russian forces are now at about 90% strength of the original forces that invaded the country. This is optimistic. Even in most benign circumstances, losses to minor medical conditions, psych issues, etc eats away at forces. Image
11/25 Plan B has not worked out either. They have slowly gained ground, but at massive cost in personnel & equipment. At the same time, rear area security has suffered. This is obviously a trade off by the Russians so they can push forward as much combat power as possible.
12/25 But rear area security is a significant mission, and normally absorbs thousands of troops (infantry, air defence, cavalry, engineers, etc). Because the Russians have incompetently executed this mission, there have been constant ambushes against logistics convoys. Image
13/25 These ambushes on logistics convoys are another source of attrition in personnel, supplies and equipment to add to combat losses, and (if it is to be believed) combat refusals and desertions from Russian troops.
14/25 As open source, as well as UK and US military briefs, note, the Russian advances in the north, east and south are grinding to a standstill. They have been out fought by the Ukrainians and have not been able to logistically sustain advances on multiple fronts.
15/25 Summing up, Russia has not achieved its key military objectives in the north, east of south. It is conducting concurrent offensives in different, disconnected parts of Ukraine. It has committed all the military forces it had for Ukraine on these missions.
16/25 The Russian campaign, if it has not already, is about to culminate. US doctrine defines this as (for offense) “the point at which continuing the attack is no longer possible and the force must consider reverting to a defensive posture or attempting an operational pause.”
17/25 So, the Russian high command has had to go back to drawing board (again) with their campaign design. As I noted in an earlier thread, it is through campaign design that commanders and their staffs’ sequence and orchestrate tactical goals and actions.
18/25 Now we see the beginnings of Russia’s ‘Plan C’ campaign in Ukraine. It is an even more ad hoc & brutal plan that their two previous attempts. This demonstrates Putin's frustration, the desperation of Russian military leaders & weakness in the Russian military position. Image
19/25 Plan C might be described as: hold current gains, long range firepower on cities, foreign fighters as cannon fodder, destroy as much infrastructure and manufacturing capacity as possible, expand the war to the west to deter foreign volunteers & aid providers. Image
20/25 This will permit the Russians to economise in personnel, trickle in replacements (and foreign mercenaries), while expending large amounts of cheap artillery and rockets in the hope they can terrorise Ukrainian civilians to force a political accommodation.
21/25 Two final issues. First, the number of personnel committed demonstrates that the Russians miscalculated & under resourced the war. Best case planning rarely works. Russia is also now probably suffering from the ‘sunk cost’ fallacy over its Ukraine operations.
22/25 As we have seen in other wars however, countries adapt to wartime crises & survive longer than logic dictates. Under Putin’s leadership, the Russian’s are likely to do this. And the Ukrainians will keep fighting conventionally or in an insurgency. It will be a long war.
23/25 This in turn, leads to the second issue. There may be a requirement for a military intervention if the west doesn’t want a forever war on the doorstep of Europe. The US and NATO may have to start making some hard military choices that they have been delaying.
24/25 Provision of lethal aid is low cost in money and personnel. But to end this war, something more may be needed. Estimates (not fear) of Russian escalation should inform decisions, but not defer them. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
25/25 Russian operations have been compromised by the size of their forces committed, and force attrition. This now has strategic consequences as their campaign culminates, and adapts to be firepower-centric, resulting in mass destruction and deaths of Ukrainian civilians. End.

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More from @WarintheFuture

Jun 2
The spectacular Ukrainian attack on multiple airbases today highlights the progress that #Ukraine has made building an effective long-range strike capability since 2022. There are many lessons that western military organisations might take from this. But there are also some insights on this war, and the future of war, as well. 1/5 🇺🇦 🧵Image
2/ The attacks, part of a longer campaign to place cumulative pressure on Russia’s economy, political leaders and war-making capacity, will probably not be a decisive turning point in the war. They will however have a military impact.
3/ Military impacts include a reduction in Russian missile carrying / launching aircraft, a reassessment of the locations of these aircraft, possible changes in the air and drone defences at Russian bases, as well as a nice morale bump for the Ukrainians.
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May 29
In the coming months, Russia will execute a series of campaigns in #Ukraine to exploit western political discord and achieve a decisive outcome before the end of 2025. What might this look like and what are Putin's goals? 1/5 (Image: @DefenceU) Image
2/ What is Putin trying to do? Putin has, so far, successfully strung the American president along without any negative impacts. He will try to continue this while watching with glee the corrosive relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy.
3/ Putin will have a series of objectives to achieve by the end of this year including: Image
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May 25
I have just published my weekly update on war and global conflict. This week, a focus on Russia unleashing larger aerial assaults on Ukraine's cities and the prospects for a stepped-up Russian offensive in Kharkiv. 1/5 (Image: @maria_avdv) Image
2/ This weekend, we see Putin conform to his worst instincts & unleash large-scale missile & drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Dozens of Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. His massive attacks on Ukraine over the weekend are indicative of Putin’s mindset now: “Trump has walked away so anything goes.”
3/ Putin hardly possesses a strong set of cards however. Even if he was to agree to some form of ceasefire now, Putin has very little to show from his three-plus years of war. This is why the ground offensive, which will increase in tempo, is so important to Putin. He really needs a decisive outcome from the 2025 offensive.
Read 5 tweets
May 20
The U.S. President, Donald Trump, had another conversation with Russia’s president today. The two-hour conversation focused primarily on Ukraine peace negotiations but also covered other topics related to the America-Russia relationship. 1/5 Image
2/ The discussion between Trump and Putin indicates that we are at the start of a new phase in the Ukraine War, and in negotiations over war termination. America has cast off any pretentions of being a central player in peace negotiations moving forward. In essence, Trump has done what many feared in the lead up to the November 2024 presidential elections. He has thrown Ukraine under the bus in the hope that he can make money in Russia.
3/ Putin has been encouraged and enabled to continue his brutal war against Ukraine by Trump stepping back from any important role in influencing Russia’s aggressive behaviour or negotiating peace. The people of Ukraine will suffer most because of this.
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May 14
Western governments and military institutions face an array of contemporary warfighting challenges which require rapid solutions. It comprises an intellectual deficit in our military institutions. What are they, and how might they be addressed? 1/7 (Image: @DefenceU) Image
2/ The ground war remains largely static. Where advances have been made, they are achieved at very large costs. The drone & missile war has more dynamism. However, it is still yet to prove politically or strategically decisive.
3/ Western military institutions face 5 significant warfighting challenges which require solutions. There is a significant body of evidence for these from Ukraine, and to a lesser degree, from conflicts in the Middle East & South Asia, as well as from Chinese activities in the Pacific.
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May 11
I have just published my latest weekly update on the war in #Ukraine, and the competition/confrontation with China in the Pacific. This week: Xi and Putin's are 'Friends of Steel', the back and forth of Ukraine peace negotiations, Russia's declining returns on its massive casualties. 1/6 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)Image
2/ Peace negotiations continue, without much progress. European leaders visited Ukraine this week and endorsed along with @ZelenskyyUa a 30 day ceasefire in the war. Trump has also called for a 30 day ceasefire.
3/ Putin on the other hand has proposed direct Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul in the coming week. Putin did not offer to extend his three-day truce (the parade is over and Xi is heading home).
Read 6 tweets

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