Three east European Prime ministers remarkably going to Kyiv as it has been under bombardment from Russia to meet President Zelensky to demonstrate EU- wide solidarity with Ukraine…
Oil and gas prices are down from extreme highs, but still very high, apparently on perception that peace talks are quietly progressing, of which the above meeting could be a part… oil just above $100 a barrel. Gas about 280p a therm…
interesting piece by PM …
Gentle lean in direction of more certainty for oil/gas producers but only in transition to net zero, & overwhelming way to reduce dependence on Russia is renewables - recasting net zero as not just green, but security priority.
No mention of fracking
Also - “we let him get away with it” & “we made a terrible mistake” after Russia annexing Crimea in 2014 refers in this article only to use of Russian energy in EU, not welcoming oligarchs, nor PMs argument in EUref campaign 2 yrs later that EU “causing real trouble” in Ukraine
… would be interesting to know how the PM reflects on this argument that the EU bore some culpability re Russia’s original invasion of Ukraine… wasn’t in script for his big EUref foreign policy speech in May 2016, but he mentioned it three times in Q&A… again here:
…reason why it might matter right now - is Zelenskyy has made EU membership for Ukraine central to his asks of West in a peace, and issue will feature in peace talks with Moscow, who are saying no…
..instinct indicated in those clips, was sympathy that EU had provoked Moscow.
Been quite surprised by the number of publicly hawkish people here, who quietly make some version of the argument that Ukraine is Russia’s backyard, analogies with Cuban missile crisis, the peace deal will involve territorial loss, and it’s up to Zelenskyy to decide…
No 10 would point to early and effective supply of anti-tank weapons and training of Ukrainian forces by UK forces has significantly helped its resistance to Russian army - eg below
PM: “Renewables are the quickest and cheapest route to greater energy independence. They are invulnerable to Putin’s manipulations. He may have his hand on the taps for oil and gas. But there is nothing he can do to stop the North Sea wind.”
Good spot - no mention - as we’ve pointed out before eg @BenChu_ piece on NN on Friday, going nowhere near the EU suggestion of turning down the thermostats, which Kwarteng rejected last week. Piece is about supply not demand.
NEW
Government’s own infrastructure advisers point to "slow progress" and risk of failing to deliver both levelling up and net zero goals, in National Infrastructure Commission annual review nic.org.uk/news/slow-prog…
urgent action is needed to avoid serious risks to delivering infra strategy, says NIC
- need for a comprehensive energy efficiency push
- local transport spending
- turbo charge the roll out of electric vehicle charging points, so 2030 petrol phaseout viable
Praise from NIC for establishment of UK Infrastructure Bank, gigabit broadband, renewables investment, rail strategy…
“But overall it has been a year of slow progress…” on decarbonisation and especially who will pay
big question is about how in transition to net 0, eg less dirty coal, there is a transition period of some years where we’re even more dependent on gas.
Tho small amount of Russian gas comes directly to UK, prices for that now incredible…
For example, the EU plan is to replace, this year, 50bcm of pipelined Russian gas, with LNG on tankers… thats about 500 tankers worth, for context, there was 6000 tanker loads delivered last year in total across whole world… problem is everyone is trying to do same.
In slightly less bad economic news though, the therm price of gas has come down, to still extremely high prices of 277p, but less terrifyingly…an average at this level still consistent with household rises in autumn as much as rises next month, but not quite up to say £3k on avg
On Russia’s top channel, which was or is chaired by Putin’s spy chief Naryshkin..
… possibly the most useful deployment of GCSE Russian, since fending off some trolls on here while covering politics, securing an interview with Gazprom in 2008, and before that helping redirect a lost Bulgarian child on a ski slope in Borovets…
Translation of the journalists pre-protest video-message - she is half Ukrainian, and is ashamed of the propaganda/ war…
Govt: RA “a pro-Kremlin oligarch.. assoc with a person who is/has been involved in destabilising Ukraine & undermining & threatening territorial integrity, sovereignty & independence of Ukraine, namely Vladimir Putin, with whom ABRAMOVICH has had a close relationship for decades”
Govt says that steel maker Evraz Plc over which Abramovich “exercises effective control” “is or has been involved in … potentially supplying steel to the Russian military which may have been used in the production of tanks”
Coming up - fascinating iv with Governor of Central Bank of Ukraine, targeting both inflation, & every hard currency flow into Russia, while keeping cash machines and refugees bank accounts functioning.
Wants more sanctions & reflects on precedent set in targeting a central bank
NEW:
BBC learns Russia suspended from Bank for International Setttlements, as requested by Ukraine CB Governor in interview with us yesterday.
“BIS will not be an avenue for sanctions to be circumvented. access of Central Bank of Russia to all BIS services..has been suspended."
Worth unpacking what Kyrylo Shevchenko, the NBU Governor, told us, about the sheer breadth of how Ukraine is trying to get whole of Russia to reap the economic consequences of Putin’s decision to invade… painstakingly trying to seal up every pipe of hard cash into Moscow…
Gas down 25% to 374 pence a therm - still extremely high, just not as off scale…
Economists such as Capital Economics now see avg fuel bills 2.5-3k, inflation peak at over 8%, (or nearly 11% on Retail Price Index), and perhaps as important remaining above 6% for rest of 2022…
Seen a few of these - significant diesel spike with margin above petrol here up at 18 p - normally 3-4p. to be clear these are well above average price, but at these most expensive stations, diesel not far off £2 a litre… and already above £100 a tank…