1/Some photos from today of #EverForward. A view of her shows her bow is almost 4 meters (13 feet) out of the water. She is 17 to 24 feet of water and draws 42 feet.
This is is going to be a prolonged salvage to get her off.
2/She missed her southbound turn (unknown why) and went out of Craighill Channel - dredged from 38 to 50 feet to accommodate neo-Panamax ships like #EverForward.
She departed the channel between red buoys 16 & 14 and plowed into the spoil area from the dredging; about 24 ft.
3/Unlike her larger cousin #EverGiven (400m in length and 20,000 TEUs), which grounded at her bow and stern in the Suez last year, #EverForward (334m & 12,000 TEUs) is aground from bow to stern as demonstrated by her exposed bottom fore and aft.
4/Many are asking how this could happen, and it will come down to either mechanical or human errors?
What we should ask is how everyday, ships this size typically transit the world's oceans and ports with no issues.
As I post this #EverGiven is preparing to transit the #Suez.
5/Fortunately, #EverForward did not block the channel to @portofbalt. She did not do this coming over the tunnel into Thimble Shoals and seal off Chesapeake Bay, or the southern passage to the naval base at Norfolk, or San Diego or LA/Long Beach and cut off our trade or Navy.
6/ Unfortunately, the only time we pay attention to shipping is when we have disasters or tragedy. Their is a movie for Titanic, but not for her sistership Olympic.
Throughout the pandemic, ocean shipping never stopped. #EVERFORWARD is a reminder of that oceanic #supplychain.
1/In 1936, the US signed into law a Merchant Marine Act that sought to replace the fleet built by the US Shipping Board from 1917-22.
With the rise of tensions in Asia & Europe, the US realized that it was overly dependent, once again on foreign shipping to move its commerce.
2/Included in the act was Title VII which allowed companies in international trade to receive differential subsidies for the construction and operation of their ships.
The hope was to restart commercial shipbuilding, but the height of the Great Depression made this difficult.
3/To jump-start shipbuilding, Title V allowed the government to initiate shipbuilding with the leasing of ships to commercial operators. The plan was to build 500 ships over ten years.
The first 50 ships were built to four distinct designs, each with national defense features.
1/Everyone is saying US ports are empty, but for most of these observers, this is their first time looking at the ports and ship data.
Here is some context:
βΆοΈUS Container Import Volumes are tracking on the high side for Q1, with only 2022 being higher.
βΆοΈWest Coast Mexican & Canadian ports just exceed the capacity of @PortofLA by itself, so the US needs cargo to flow into its ports.
βΆοΈThe four biggest US ports are extremely dependent on China imports:
@PortofLA 62%
@PortNYNJ 27%
@portoflongbeach 65%
@GaPorts 35%
It takes about 2-3 weeks to sail from East Asia to the West Coast about 4-6 weeks. With the tariffs going into affect on all cargo loaded after April 9, those ships have arrived on the West Coast and they will be on the East/Gulf Coast mid-May.
2/As I have stated previously:
βΆοΈThe idea that US ports are empty or the ships are not sailing to the US is false as in this video.
βΆοΈWhat is happening is the data for the ports are showing the dip in imports, with @PortofLA showing a 35% drop in Week 19 (May 4-10).
βΆοΈThe thing to watch is the container volumes departing China for the US and the slight uptick at the end of April.
The 145% is extreme, but is the mark up enough to deter companies from ordering inventory to replace everything that came in during Q1? Also, is there even a suitable alternative to the Chinese manufactured goods and what will be the overall cost differential, especially for low-cost, but high-mark up items?
3/The question is how does industry react? @FreightWaves and @FreightAlley asked 20 firms across four sectors:
βΆοΈAutomotive and Transportation
βΆοΈRetail and Consumer Goods
βΆοΈTechnology and Electronics
βΆοΈIndustrial and Manufacturing
They range from revised financial guidance and pausing productions; to @Walmart resuming some Chinese suppliers; shifting productions to other countries; and some like @whirlpoolusa see them as a competitive advantage.
1/Everyone has to be careful about misreading shipping data. This chart from @MarineTraffic shows normal density for containerships and shows icons for all vessels destined for the US.
2/The data from the @PortofLA is showing that cargo for this week (which is coming in before the Apr 9 loading date) is expected to be 56% over the same week last week. This is on top of a record Q1 with a lot of front loading.
@PortofLA 3/The Blank Sailings everyone is hearing of is currently at 10% with 75 sailings out of 718 between 28 April and 1 June. These cancellations are not unusual; in May last year there were 19 blank sailings to the West Coast and 22 in May.
2/First, the issue is the lack of contracts with the current yards and the fact that nearly all shipyards have one sole customer...the @USNavy. Therefore they have to be burdened with a sea of @NAVSEA rules and inspectors.
3/Globally, we have seen a reduction in global shipbuilding capacity from 700 yards in 2007 to 300 in 2022. That is a reduction of ship construction capacity from 2000 ships to 1200. Plus, this capacity is focused on 9 companies in China, Korea & Japan.
1/The damage to USS Harry S Truman (CVN-75) has me thinking along the same lines as when USNS Big Horn (T-AO 198) ran aground off Oman and left the Lincoln battlegroup without an oiler.
What if Truman was damaged in battle and what is the historical comparison that the US Navy can look towards?
2/Much like I compared Big Horn's loss to that of USS Pecos in January 1942, the situation early in the Pacific War may provide a good example for the @USNavy for a potential peer-to-peer conflict in the Pacific.
3/At the start of the Pacific War in December 1941, the US Navy had 3 carriers in the Pacific with another 3 in the Atlantic (not counting Ranger). The US faced off against 6 Japanese fleet carriers as brought to bear off Hawaii.
How did the US carriers fare in the first half of the war?
1/I don't think the author of this article understands how the ocean can be used to fight the #LosAngelesFire #PalisadesFire.
First, what is needed is water to supply fire engines and tenders (tankers). When the fires burned through residential and commercial areas, the water pipes are opened and every structure pulls on the system.
2/Water systems are designed to operate off reservoirs, elevated tanks, pumping stations, or a combination of all. Normally, pumping stations fill elevated tanks during low-consumption periods. The tanks & reservoirs use the weight of the water and gravity to push water through the pipes.
3/As was noted by the director of @LADWP, the tanks were drained due to consumption and as fires opened lines.
The system pumps could not refill the tanks & charge the pipes. This resulted in the loss of pressure on all the hydrants, which has happened in past fires.