In @williamgreen72 latest podcast, Howard Marks talked about how to invest successfully in an inflationary environment, why he is BULLISH on China and why he might have been wrong about Bitcoin.
Here are my notes:
@williamgreen72 1. Comparing today's inflationary environment with the 1970s.
Howard believes today's inflation is temporary and it is largely due:
-Supply chain interruption
-Bulge in demand from COVID relief measures
-The private sector was heavily unionized back then.
@williamgreen72 2. How will he invest in this inflationary environment?
✅For FI investors, have more floating rate instruments & less fixed rate instruments.
✅Healthy real estate can pass on rent increases.
✅Invest in companies where profits grow faster than inflation.
This legend inherited a $20 million fund and grew it to $14 billion.
Delivering a 29.2% annual return between 1977 and 1990.
Here is how he did it:
1. Hold on to your winners tightly.
Great businesses defy mean reversion.
Cut lousy businesses out.
The quote was so good that Warren Buffett cited it in his shareholder letter.
“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.”
2. Volatility is the price of admission.
“People who succeed in the stock market also accept periodic losses, setbacks, and unexpected occurrences. Calamitous drops do not scare them out of the game.”
Buffett's letters since his partnership years are jammed with insights.
And he taught me more than any business school ever could.
This year is no different.
Here are my key insights:
1. Buffett and Munger's investing philosophy
Their goal is to look for businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO.
2. Pick the right businesses and the stock price will take care of itself.
"...we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves."