This is a good question. Similar, questions were repeatedly raised about the infamous “40-mile long column.” Ability is only one aspect of military strategic thinking.
The most important aspect, especially in defensive actions is timing or when to best
The most important aspect, especially in defensive actions is timing or when to best
https://twitter.com/phillip_wareham/status/1503951425142870024
(2) employ your offensive capabilities.
For Russia to attempt an amphibious landing without support of their eastern ground forces would be suicide. Now perhaps, Russia is about to pull a Leeroy Jenkins. In that case, as Sun Tzu said,
For Russia to attempt an amphibious landing without support of their eastern ground forces would be suicide. Now perhaps, Russia is about to pull a Leeroy Jenkins. In that case, as Sun Tzu said,
(3) “Never Interrupt Your Enemy When He Is Making A Mistake.”
Instead, it’s more likely Russia moved up those naval forces in hopes it would cause Ukraine to pull additional troops toward Odesa, helping open up a path around Mykolaiv or to try and ferret Ukraine’s defensive
Instead, it’s more likely Russia moved up those naval forces in hopes it would cause Ukraine to pull additional troops toward Odesa, helping open up a path around Mykolaiv or to try and ferret Ukraine’s defensive
(4) positions.
Either way, Ukraine’s best move here is to do nothing. Save your offensive power for when it can be best employed and let time continue to sap away at effectiveness of the troops on those ships.
The Russian marines on those landing vessels have been staged for
Either way, Ukraine’s best move here is to do nothing. Save your offensive power for when it can be best employed and let time continue to sap away at effectiveness of the troops on those ships.
The Russian marines on those landing vessels have been staged for
(5) over a month now, stuck on a roughly 400ft ship. Not only have they been using up food, fuel, etc. but waiting in a such a relatively confined space eats away at troop moral.
Troops in combat typically go through three distinct stages of thought.
Troops in combat typically go through three distinct stages of thought.
(6) 1. Maybe some of my buddies will die, but I’m not going to be killed.
2. I’m not invincible and I could get killed.
3. It no longer matters, I’m definitely going to be killed.
*IF* the troops on those vessels have been exposed to any legit info on the current situation,
2. I’m not invincible and I could get killed.
3. It no longer matters, I’m definitely going to be killed.
*IF* the troops on those vessels have been exposed to any legit info on the current situation,
(7) they could already be bordering between stages 1 and 2. This is ideally the mental state Ukrainian defenders would like them when they attempt a landing.
At minimum, they probably know something isn’t going according to plan, because they’ve been sitting idle for a month.
At minimum, they probably know something isn’t going according to plan, because they’ve been sitting idle for a month.
(8) Now, if Ukraine was to attempt to strike the landing ships now and take them out of the game, Russia would then just adjust strategic plans for taking Odesa. Most importantly, adjustments to better meet the threat of Ukrainian defenses.
So though it seems counterintuitive
So though it seems counterintuitive
(9) the best move Ukraine can make right now is do nothing. Just let time continue to slowly erode the Russian marine’s combat effectiveness, so when and if you do have to face them, you’ll face a less capable force.
Lastly and probably most importantly, if Russian forces never
Lastly and probably most importantly, if Russian forces never
(10) pass Mykolaiv, Ukraine is likely never going to have to worry about those landing vessels. At least not in Odesa. So save your firepower for when and where it can be best employed.
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