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COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
@COVID19actuary
Mar 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Hospital admissions with COVID continue to increase rapidly across England. Up by 27% in the last week.

See below for a breakdown by region, age and primary diagnosis. Also bed occupancy and hospital deaths. 1/5
Admissions are up sharply in all English regions. The most rapid increase is NE and Yorks, up 52% week-on-week! Other regions are up by 21-26%. 2/5
Admissions with COVID are increasing at a similar rate in all age groups, with increases of 25-30% week-on-week. 3/5
Bed occupied by COVID patients are also increasing again, up 21% week-on-week. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is stable though.

We’ll have an updated breakdown tomorrow between patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis and those where it isn’t.

4/5
Lastly, COVID deaths in English hospitals are no longer falling. After adjusting for estimated reporting delays, hospital deaths appear to have increased by 3% week-on-week. 5/5

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Aug 22, 2023
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 11 August.

Death rates this week were 5% higher than the equivalent week in 2019. This implies 487 excess deaths in England and Wales. 1/4 Image
CMI calculates 202,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 30,800 in 2023.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 5.0% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. That is similar to this point in 2021. 2/4 Image
Calculated excess deaths (487) were much higher than the number of deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (108). So there was a large “non-COVID excess” this week. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Apr 13, 2023
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 31 March.

Death rates this week were significantly higher than the equivalent week in 2019. There were 1,210 more deaths, which is 12% more. 1/4 Image
CMI calculates 171,600 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 20,200 in the first quarter of 2023. That’s the worst quarterly excess since the peak of the second wave. 2/4 Image
Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 3.2% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Jan 12, 2023
Are A&E pressures really leading to hundreds of additional deaths each week? @ActuaryByDay and colleagues @LCP_Actuaries crunch the numbers and conclude that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care.
covidactuaries.org/2023/01/11/are…
Looking only at the waiting time from the decision to admit the patient until the point of admission (the so called “trolley wait”) an additional 5,400 deaths within 30-days are estimated between Sep and Nov 2022. That’s 415 per week.
In reality, waits experienced by patients are sadly significantly longer. The chart below shows that the total attendances exceeding 4 hours are much higher than the “trolley waits” exceeding 4 hours.

Around 600,000 A&E attendances exceeded 4 hours in both Oct and Nov.
Read 8 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Oct 29, 2022
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumns boosters: over 10m now boosted
- protection against Omicron from boosters and prior infection
- AZ nasal vaccine disappoints
- Pfizer bivalent vaccine approved in USA for age 5-11
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- Moderna bivalent booster outperforms original
- pre-Omicron infections don’t compromise immunity against Omicron
- Over 300 Omicron sublineages globally. BA.5 dominant but BQ.1 displacing it
- Evusheld available privately - at a price
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- NHS waiting list nears 7.5 million
- Analysis of Long COVID in Scotland and 22 countries
- latest ONS infections update
- hospital admissions currently falling
- Excess mortality remains high

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Oct 27, 2022
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen significantly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 16%.

Our R estimate is around 0.9.

All regions have seen falls. SW is down by 27%; NW is down by 9%. Others are in between.

Bed occupancy also fell, down 12%. ImageImageImageImage
Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.

The proportion of patients with COVID where it is the primary diagnosis has remained fairly consistent at 36%.

This shows that the change has been similar between beds occupied by patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis and those where it isn’t. Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Oct 21, 2022
In the first six months of 2022, deaths in Australia were 13% higher than predicted. There were 11,200 excess deaths.

There were 5,600 COVID deaths, representing just over half the excess.

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/21/exc…
The significant excess deaths in Australia in 2022 are in contrast to earlier stages of the pandemic.

Deaths in 2020 were 3% lower than expected, due to restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Deaths in 2021 were 2% higher than expected. Image
It isn’t possible to identify from death counts alone what is causing recent non-COVID excess mortality in Australia. We discuss possible explanations, suggesting that post-COVID sequelae and interactions with other causes of death are likely to be the most significant factor.
Read 7 tweets

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