Thread by @VZabolotskiy

The first chapter of my Ph.D. thesis on the commemoration of political violence and social capital is out @JHPE_journal. The findings are from before, but some insights might be valuable to understand how did 🇷🇺 turn out this way. 🧵
nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…

1/17

In this paper, I explore the legacy of the 1930s "anti-soviet elements" arrests, or NKVD Order №00447, and recent commemoration of these events within @MemorialMoscow Last Address initiative: poslednyadres.ru

2/17

I show that political arrests commemoration might serve as a transmission vehicle for the associated effects on out-group pro-social behavior. In short: a painful past erodes social ties.

3/17

I focus on №00447 arrests in Moscow, Russia. Although the №00447 targeted certain population groups, the location of the arrest sites is close to random when accounted for building density. Plaques location, in turn, is mainly explained by the arrests density.

4/17

To proxy for pro-social behavior, I employ very granular data on donations of small personal items from @avito – the largest marketplace in Russia. I download geo-localized ads from unique users located in Moscow that include keywords synonymical to "for free." An example:

5/17

I find a negative correlation between such donations per capita/building and №00447 arrests. However, the effect is conditional on the Last Address plaque installation. In a transient city like Moscow, what matters is not the past but how it's commemorated.

6/17

To show that the result is because of this particular commemoration type, I run a placebo study with the location of non-Last Address plaques and a Monte-Carlo simulation of plaque location (graph below). More details are in the paper.

7/17

Mechanism-wise, my intuition was that commemoration reminds one of the "dangers" associated with having many social ties, thus promoting the "culture of mistrust." Similar findings regarding Gulags: iza.org/publications/d…

8/17

Now, I believe the mechanism is more complex. First, mind that Memorial was declared an "undesired organization" in 2014 and shut down on 28 Feb 2022. The observed correlation might be not because of past but present repression.

9/17

Second, the trauma of living under the Soviet regime appears to have made Russians perceive commemoration itself as a threat to their safety. Russians do remember the Great Terror, but they don't want to talk about it – even more so now.

10/17

This one is more of speculation based on my experience with my family. Russian 50+ y.o's know their grandparents were repressed, but they don't want to discuss it publicly. They don't think we need @MemorialMoscow and should keep these memories to ourselves. I disagree.

11/17

Here are some examples from the Memorial's database. This person is my great-great-grandfather. He was Ukrainian. In the 1950s, my mother's grandmother received compensation – just enough to buy her husband a new suit. base.memo.ru/person/show/20…

12/17

This is my grandmother. All her family repressed bc of dekulakization. When my father was applying to the BMSTU, she had to forge documents to change his background to "proletarian" – otherwise, he wouldn't have got in.
base.memo.ru/person/show/22…

13/17

The last time I saw her was 20 Feb 2022, but she was too busy to talk to me, as she was watching a Russian TV propaganda show. The next day I left Russia, and I am not sure I will ever see her again.

14/17

On 21 Feb 2022, the Russian president declared that Ukrainians are not a nation but a part of Russian "super-ethnicity." Many Russians agreed and cheered, including my father. Three days later, Russia started a war in Ukraine.

15/17

I'm sure that the unwillingness of the Soviet generations to talk about the past, not in a global but personal and vulnerable way, contributed to the war being possible at all. Sincere reflection upon the past trauma could have countered revanchism and propaganda.

16/17

When the war ends, the only way for the nation I am part of to find redemption will be through acceptance of what it is responsible for. It will be important not only not to forget, but to repent – to restore and protect the peace. 🕊️

17/17

The end. I want to thank my friends and colleagues @Unibo and @hse_icsid, anonymous reviewer @JHPE_journal and @jaj7d, and all the great researchers who discussed this project with me. Special thanks to @AnaProkhorov for her endless love and support in these difficult times ♥️

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#researchpaper #polisciresearch #economics #politicaleconomy