I have my students watch @micheleflournoy's 2019 Drell lecture & wrestle with @josef_joffe's hub and spokes concept for the current international order. Watching the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, points both make have real salience. 1/
Despite all the hype about China's rise and multipolarity, the U.S. still sits at the central node of the global economy & when united with key partners in Europe & Asia, can "excommunicate" even a major country from that system. Moscow gambled on its indispensability ... 2/
to the world economy to shield itself, a gamble that so far has not paid off. China's willingness to shield Russia has also been far more hesitant that Russia expected (one of my "Vladimir's Delusions"). 3/
https://twitter.com/FPRI_Orbis/status/1500152763287851016
and is partially responding (although, yes, not completely) to U.S. compellent financial pressure. If, as Flournoy has argued, the start of the last cycle was characterized by the U.S. kinetic military victory in the Gulf War, it would seem that the start of the new cycle ... 4/
will be characterized by countries learning from how the U.S. this time deployed not military force but economic and financial tools. This, in turn, has implications for U.S. domestic policy in the years ahead. 5/
The U.S. maintains its hub position by sitting at the center of a new alliance that promotes the economic, environmental, health, technological & energy security of its members. (Indebted to @NilsSchmid for his thoughts in @FPRI Orbis on this subject.) 6/ fpri.org/article/2021/1…
The economic "America First" notes in @POTUS's #SOTU2022 were jarring if this is the way forward. This new way of conceiving alliances has clear #doorstep &benefits for American businesses and workers. Moreover, we want to continue to incentivize partners to join with us. 7/
Also requires bipartisan continuity to maintain. However, encouraging signs from both sides of the aisle that the broad parameters enjoy support and new sense of unity around Ukraine provides a basis. @RepGallagher, @ShayStautz & others show this. 8/ fpri.org/article/2020/1…
And other countries, starting with those who expect to challenge the U.S., may take steps to change this (and are happy to let Russia absorb the costs as "first mover" challenger. 9/
https://twitter.com/davidpgoldman/status/1504487879690502155
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