Russia's war in Ukraine illustrates how warfare has changed. Tanks & armored personnel carriers have become obsolete. They are too expensive & are easily destroyed with manifold light anti-tank weapons or drones.
Airplanes and helicopters are too expensive and too vulnerable to modern weapons, so they are not much used, but much destroyed.
The obvious winners are the Turkish killer drones, as in the war in Nagorny Karabakh.
Cruise missiles remain effective, but they are expensive.
Special forces remain vital, but they must have high moral and be disciplined. The Ukrainians are, while the Kadyrovtsy have been revealed as cruel and trigger-happy but pretty useless.
The Putin army has been revealed as an obsolete Potemkin army.
I should add that the Ukrainian spring mud has made it impossible for Russian military vehicles to leave the roads, so they are sitting ducks on the roads, as long as the Ukrainians have enough of potent anti-tank weapons.
The overall picture suggests that Putin, Shoigu & Putin's KGB Dresden friend, Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov, have concentrated on stealing money from the war budget. Then it is not surprising that nothing works and that the military moral is missing in action.

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More from @anders_aslund

Mar 20
Many people claim to be surprised that Putin started a war of aggression against Ukraine. Really? To me it was evident from his article of July 12, 2021. Let me go back to my article of July 14 about "Putin's Dangerous Ukraine Narrative."
project-syndicate.org/commentary/put…
1. "Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.”...It is a masterclass in disinformation – & one step short of a declaration of war."
2. "Russia always treated Ukraine “with great love,” Putin declares. That’s not quite how I would describe imposing severe trade sanctions on a country in turmoil, as Russia did to Ukraine when President Viktor Yanukovych, a Putin crony, was ousted in 2014."
Read 6 tweets
Mar 19
A few thoughts on the Western economic sanctions on Russia.
1. They are truly vicious. No sensible forecasts can be made today, but I would be surprised if Russia's GDP does not fall by some 20% in 2022.
2. Russia suffers from extreme financial, trade & air isolation.
3. These sanctions are self-reinforcing & self-reproducing. It has become indecent to trade with Russia or doing anything commercially in Russia.
4. The big hole that is open is shipping. Close that & the sanction breakers, such as India & China can no longer do that.
5. As @AmbDanFried has long advocated, the dominant state shipping company Sovcomflot should be sanctioned. Western ports and shipping companies should be prohibited to handle Russian shipping anywhere in the world. Today, China & India buy discounted Russian oil.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 19
On the whole, I must give @POTUS great credit for how he has handled Russia's war against Ukraine.
1. Already in 2014, he pushed for serious arms to Ukraine. He lost to Obama, but he was on the right side of history.
2. Since he became president, he has sent lots of good arms.
3. Biden made a mistake to meet Putin on June 16, giving him undue recognition for no reason.
4. Biden made an extraordinary mistake when he let Nord Stream 2 go ahead first in the spring & then in the July 21 agreement with Merkel. That was the low point.
5. Biden's great achievement has been to turn the world's attention to what Russia was doing around Ukraine by daily report intelligence publicly. This was a major victory in the information war.
6. As a result of his public statements journalists flooded to Ukraine & told it all
Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
Will Putin use nukes & if so in what case? I see 3 dominant answers:
1. He won't as it does not make sense. He is only threatening. We can ignore those threats but keep a high guard. (my position).
2. He might do so, so we have to be cautious (bleeding heart liberals). Appease!
3. Putin is so mad and desperate that he might use nukes. The best we can do is to hit hard early so that it cannot save him or does not manage to get around to do so (the general Ukrainian position).
The best argumentation I have heard is General Wesley Clark (twice publicly this week) who states that we should start with the assumption that Putin will use nukes. Then ask ourselves what we would do in that case: Threaten to respond in kind!
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17
Putin's meeting with officials on economic issues on March 16 records his greatest madness to date. Putin made a 15 pages speech, which would make Hitler look like a moderate until the bunker.
Conclusion: Putin is in the bunker.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Putin devoted the first four pages to repeat all his lies about Ukraine: "our diplomatic efforts were in vain. We have been left with no peaceful alternative to settle the problems that developed through no fault of ours...we were forced to begin this special military operation."
"The operation is being carried out successfully, in strict conformity with the approved plan.
...encouraged by the United States and other Western countries, Ukraine was purposefully preparing for a scenario of force, a massacre and an ethnic cleansing in Donbass."
Read 14 tweets
Mar 16
Putin seems truly desperate.
The young & well-educated are fleeing as fast as they can, so Putin calls them "fifth column" & "national traitors.
He announces that he will seize the firms and real estate of emigres.
He mobilizes convicts and prison guards to Ukraine.
He dares not declare a state of emergency and close the borders.
Running out of soldiers in Ukraine, he is trying to recruit Syrian mercenaries against purported Slavid brothers.
Lavrov & Peskov talk about possible agreement with Ukraine, but Putin denies that (just like Hitler).
The Western sanctions have become devastating to the Russian economy, which is now quickly becoming as isolated as North Korea.
Russia's losses in Ukraine are enormous, and the Ukrainians now forecast that they can clean out the Russians in two weeks if not nuked.
Read 4 tweets

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