Thread by @RALee85

Thread on the current status of the war. There are 4 areas/cities to watch over the next 1-2 weeks:
-Mikolaiv
-Mariupol
-Joint Forces Operation area
-Kyiv
Russian forces are having some successes pushing against JFO but less against Kyiv and Mikolaiv.
(map from @TheStudyofWar)

Mikolaiv is significant because Russia needs to take it if its forces are to seriously threaten Odesa, which appears to be a goal. However, the city continues to hold, and Russia has taken losses in the fighting. An amphibious landing would also be risky without further gains. 2/

Mariupol is the first large city Russian forces have attempted to seize where Ukrainian forces are willing to fight block-by-block. Russia is progressing, but it is slow and costly. Mariupol gives us an indication of how costly an assault on Kyiv would be. 3/

Mariupol is important because the forces committed to its seizure can't be used elsewhere. If/when Russia takes it, these forces can be committed to helping encircle Ukrainian forces to the north around the Donbas. The longer Mariupol holds out, the worse it is for Russia. 4/

Russia's most recent successes have been in taking Izyum to the north of the JFO area and expanding in the SW of the Donbas. If Russian forces make a concerted advance from the south and to the SW from Izyum, they could threaten to encircle the JFO units. 5/

The significance of Kyiv is obvious, but Russia has struggled to encircle the city. Despite an air assault on Hostomel on the first day, Russian forces have been held back in the Bucha/Irpin area ever since and have sustained heavy casualties in the area. 6/

Russian forces have been able to push armored formations to Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, but they were repelled last week as well. It isn't clear if or when Russia will be able to actually encircle Kyiv, and Ukraine can continue to resupply its capitol.7/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502388123963207683

It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities where there is resistance. 8/

Casualties are a factor. The 150k figure includes air defense and support troops. The share of combat troops is smaller and they're taking the losses. Russia deployed 120 BTGs with ~800 soldiers each=~95,000 troops. Plus ~15-25k separatist forces and National Guard troops. 9/

Russia may have 90% of its combat power still available, but the casualties have disproportionally affected its elite units, like the VDV, razvedchiki, and spetsnaz, and maneuver units. Those are the units needs to occupy territory and seize Kyiv. 10/

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504894256816824324

Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/

It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/

If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/

If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/

If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.