1/5. The Biden Admin's unfolding #intelligence strategy was front and center in the #Xi-Biden call today. The essence of the strategy, I think, is revealing to coerce. Disclosing secrets may not stop all bad actions, but it can shape adversaries' behavior to our advantage.
2/5 How? By raising costs & decreasing room for adversaries to hide, pretend, maneuver. With the war in Ukraine, exploiting the wedge between Russia and China is critical. Disclosures that back Beijing into a corner publicly help do that. And that's what we're seeing.
3/5 There have been 2 sets of intel disclosures ab China and Ukraine. Disclosure #1: Intel officials say C'se senior leaders knew about Putin's invasion and asked that it be postponed til after the Beijing Olympics. Translation: China is complicit, and everyone knows it now.
4/5 Disclosure #2: Reports that Russian leaders have asked for C'se military, ec, and other assistance.This has been the backdrop/mic drop before Jake Sullivan's mtg with C'se counterparts in Rome and the Biden/Xi call today. The message: We are not looking the other way.
5/5 Of course, it's too soon to tell how this will work out. But we do know the alternative: NOT revealing intel would have made it easier for Beijing to play both sides, helping Russia on the sly with minimal costs to its own trade & political relationships.
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