Thread by @uk_domain_names

I've read a lot of analyses of possible outcomes of Russia's war on Ukraine, but I've yet to see one where Ukraine wins.

Not a negotiated surrender with concessions, but victory after the Russian army suffers such huge cumulative losses that taking cities becomes impossible.

This feels like a significant omission, because the more military success Ukraine has (it has destroyed over 1,500 Russian tanks, planes, APCs etc. according to verified tallies) the more power it can then concentrate into its next attempts to push Russian forces back and back.

Dynamics seem to favour Ukraine:

It now has more military equipment than on Day 1 of the invasion, because it has captured more material than it lost (though planes/helicopters can't be replaced that way).

It also has massive inflows of extra military hardware from overseas.

Ukraine now has significantly more fighters too, between influxes of foreign volunteers, Ukrainians returning home to fight, and reservists and volunteers training in real battle conditions.

So Ukraine on 19 March is a different and more ferocious animal than on 24 February.

Make no mistake: It's likely Putin could destroy Ukraine if he resorted to deploying weapons of mass destruction on a large scale.

But that's not the same as beating it.

Every day of heroic resistance makes it harder to see how Ukraine can lose a conventional war.