Thread by @iMusing

Green keeps saying there is nothing meaningful in the early figures (he has to bc tiny samples) but all the data sets he has shown are indicating the swing is well and truly on from where I sit.

lots of tiny samples, swings away from the Liberals in each and every one.

the minority SA government looks like retaining most safe seats and perhaps losing a couple to Independents, and losing most marginals to Labor.

unless I missed it, not one booth, count, or graph has shown a swing to the Liberal Party candidate.

that little banner across the bottom is Antony Green’s computer calls and has been consistently running at 2:1 to the ALP so far.

and there it is. At the moment there is a very big swing on, says Green, and he expects to call it [for Labor] in the next 15 minutes.

lmao Liberal Party minister about to lose her seat says she has hope™️

he’s calling it

“the [South Australian Liberal] government has been defeated” - Antony Green, 8:36 pm 19 March 2022.

poor old Vicki Chapman. What a sucker of a gig this is for the losery losers who are losing😔

cue sad face #Insiders telling us, with exactly zero evidence, how they think the prime minister is feeling on Sunday morning and dutifully reciting the whole unevidenced myth that SaintedAustralianVoters™️ distinguish state and federal issues.

“all the seats in doubt are Liberal seats” - A Green, March 2022 gonna be repeating himself in May 2022 my mates.

Green says “we” (him and his computer bless) “will give” nine definites to the Liberals but I am pumping for eight.

“there is a patchwork of swings [against the Liberal Party]… but it is 6, 7, 8 per cent everywhere” is about as generous as it gets to the incumbents.

nb some of the swing is to Independents. The swing to Labor is smaller than the swing against the Liberals and SA Best did not run.

Liberal Party candidate Rachel Sanderson, who was child “protection” minister in the defeated Marshall government and said she had hope™️ has lost the seat of Adelaide to Labor.

Speers is here to tell us “what federal implications if any”. DRINK.

is Speers the most predictable bore and rote reciter of unevidenced tory mythology in the press gallery [rhetorical].
•voters clearly discern federal and state issues - drink.
•incumbency is no longer a protection - drink.
•Morrison government will be concerned - drink.

the “pandemic incumbency” myth is based on governments in Western Australia, Queensland, and the ACT returned with a swing to Labor and the Liberal government in Tasmania just squeaking home. In other words, the narrative minimises and naturalises Labor electoral success.

Marshall is conceding. Someone should tell Vicki.

it flashed up super quick but I think I saw Antony Green showing that the Nationals got 0.4% of the vote in one seat 🥸

Marshall thanking a David Speers but apparently he is a Liberal Party operative called David Speers.

h/t to @PercyKaren the SA Electoral Commission has the Nationals stone fatherless last in the entire state at 0.4% of the vote. Despite you know their legendary - to the press gallery - retail politics federal leader.

correction, the outgoing Premier in South Australia thanked a Liberal Party operative called David Spiers for his work on the Liberal Party election campaign, which they lost.

https://twitter.com/clivewa74272726/status/1505132682748989441

“are we just not a Liberal state in South Australia”? is also minimising and naturalising Labor Party electoral success. The reality is Liberal Party politicians are catastrophically bad at government. Their ideology directs against acting in the public interest.

the central organising principle of liberalism is to code aggressive self interest as “rational” and “competition”. It is the opposite of social good. It fetishises the individual who is not, and can not be, a social unit.

plus most Liberals are actually tories and their central organising principle is primogeniture. Born to rule. This core belief is cloaked in meritocracy mythology as a nod to post-mediaeval social values, but primogeniture still shapes and determines their decisions and actions.

if they actually think meritocracy informs their decisions and actions, then they also believe white males are superior beings, because everything about the Liberal Party, like their junior Coalition partners, is white male dominated.

Green calling the seat of Stuart for independent Geoff Brock. It has been lost by Liberal Party incumbent Dan van Holst Pellekaan who was deputy premier from November 2021 to 19 March 2022.