Dr Ingrid M Profile picture
Mar 19 29 tweets 5 min read
Green keeps saying there is nothing meaningful in the early figures (he has to bc tiny samples) but all the data sets he has shown are indicating the swing is well and truly on from where I sit.
lots of tiny samples, swings away from the Liberals in each and every one.
the minority SA government looks like retaining most safe seats and perhaps losing a couple to Independents, and losing most marginals to Labor.
unless I missed it, not one booth, count, or graph has shown a swing to the Liberal Party candidate.
that little banner across the bottom is Antony Green’s computer calls and has been consistently running at 2:1 to the ALP so far.
and there it is. At the moment there is a very big swing on, says Green, and he expects to call it [for Labor] in the next 15 minutes.
lmao Liberal Party minister about to lose her seat says she has hope™️
he’s calling it
“the [South Australian Liberal] government has been defeated” - Antony Green, 8:36 pm 19 March 2022.
poor old Vicki Chapman. What a sucker of a gig this is for the losery losers who are losing😔
cue sad face #Insiders telling us, with exactly zero evidence, how they think the prime minister is feeling on Sunday morning and dutifully reciting the whole unevidenced myth that SaintedAustralianVoters™️ distinguish state and federal issues.
“all the seats in doubt are Liberal seats” - A Green, March 2022 gonna be repeating himself in May 2022 my mates.
Green says “we” (him and his computer bless) “will give” nine definites to the Liberals but I am pumping for eight.
“there is a patchwork of swings [against the Liberal Party]… but it is 6, 7, 8 per cent everywhere” is about as generous as it gets to the incumbents.
nb some of the swing is to Independents. The swing to Labor is smaller than the swing against the Liberals and SA Best did not run.
Liberal Party candidate Rachel Sanderson, who was child “protection” minister in the defeated Marshall government and said she had hope™️ has lost the seat of Adelaide to Labor.
Speers is here to tell us “what federal implications if any”. DRINK.
is Speers the most predictable bore and rote reciter of unevidenced tory mythology in the press gallery [rhetorical].
•voters clearly discern federal and state issues - drink.
•incumbency is no longer a protection - drink.
•Morrison government will be concerned - drink.
the “pandemic incumbency” myth is based on governments in Western Australia, Queensland, and the ACT returned with a swing to Labor and the Liberal government in Tasmania just squeaking home. In other words, the narrative minimises and naturalises Labor electoral success.
Marshall is conceding. Someone should tell Vicki.
it flashed up super quick but I think I saw Antony Green showing that the Nationals got 0.4% of the vote in one seat 🥸
Marshall thanking a David Speers but apparently he is a Liberal Party operative called David Speers.
h/t to @PercyKaren the SA Electoral Commission has the Nationals stone fatherless last in the entire state at 0.4% of the vote. Despite you know their legendary - to the press gallery - retail politics federal leader.
correction, the outgoing Premier in South Australia thanked a Liberal Party operative called David Spiers for his work on the Liberal Party election campaign, which they lost.
“are we just not a Liberal state in South Australia”? is also minimising and naturalising Labor Party electoral success. The reality is Liberal Party politicians are catastrophically bad at government. Their ideology directs against acting in the public interest.
the central organising principle of liberalism is to code aggressive self interest as “rational” and “competition”. It is the opposite of social good. It fetishises the individual who is not, and can not be, a social unit.
plus most Liberals are actually tories and their central organising principle is primogeniture. Born to rule. This core belief is cloaked in meritocracy mythology as a nod to post-mediaeval social values, but primogeniture still shapes and determines their decisions and actions.
if they actually think meritocracy informs their decisions and actions, then they also believe white males are superior beings, because everything about the Liberal Party, like their junior Coalition partners, is white male dominated.
Green calling the seat of Stuart for independent Geoff Brock. It has been lost by Liberal Party incumbent Dan van Holst Pellekaan who was deputy premier from November 2021 to 19 March 2022.

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More from @iMusing

Mar 19
good morning from unceded lands of the sovereign Darug people☀️today on #Insiders are murdoch politics editor Samantha Maiden, murdoch foreign policy columnist Greg Sheridan and former fairfax national affairs editor, Professor Mark Kenny.
the interview is with Morrison government finance minister and federal Liberal Party campaign manager Simon Birmingham.
This thread is not fact checked. It is not and does not pretend to be neutral, objective, or impartial.
opening spiel: Labor wins in South Australia, first pandemic change of government, incumbency myth repeated. #Insiders
Read 44 tweets
Mar 19
sounds like the first election victory speech in this country to open with an acknowledgement, which is of unceded Kaurna country, of elders past and present, and a statement of commitment to Voice Treaty Truth✊🏼
in contrast, the ABC commentators have consistently referred to the leader of the successful party and incoming Premier as a former union leader and member of the shoppies because they just can not help themselves.
incoming SA Premier Peter Malinauskas gives a shout out to deputy leader Dr Susan Close who has a PhD in political science and to longest serving SA state MP Anastasious Tom Koutsantonis.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 19
they know Abbott rode this lousy Coalition government to power on a wave of aggressive misogyny right? That Scott Morrison reached the PMO by targeting and bullying women in the Liberal Party room? That Liberal Party politicians are promoted and admired for toxic masculinity?
the funniest creepiest tweets on this are professor van onselen repeatedly reply-guying “big swinging dicks” to punters, but not on his own post. The OP is a highly successful woman journalist.
top women journalists in the press gallery have published serious analysis ~about Labor Party internals~ that conveniently erases both hypocritical histrionics from Liberal Party politicians and the disgraceful media feeding frenzy.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 18
it is not a tightrope. That’s a thing circus performers do. It is a stimulus measure that has known multiplier effects on quarterly figures which these men will then “report” during the election campaign to promote Liberal Party lies.
there is no pub test. Journalists use pub test as a euphemism for corrupted decisions made and corrupted actions taken by the Morrison government.
culture wars means violent bigotry, pass it on.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
a week out from the federal budget, the federal treasurer is on ABC radio reciting fabricated figures about opposition campaign promises.
he is also lying about wages again. Fact check: the best way to get higher wages is for bosses to pay more money to workers.
“better than I forecast” is his KPI😂
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
“news value” means “of value to news outlets”. It does not mean “has more value to society than other competing news stories among the abstract total of all stories available to be told in news bulletins today”.
journalists could use this platform to clarify the difference between what “news value” actually means - to media operatives - and the useful false assumption that it means something of value to audiences, readers, voters, or society at large.
every time I turn on the ABC these last two days, a member of the herd is reciting misinformation to their audiences about corrupted spending of public money by her majestys government and election campaign promises made by her majestys loyal opposition.
Read 11 tweets

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