Seeing a lot of talk about the post-invasion settlement, what Ukraine should demand, what conditions required of Russia, what Ukraine's partners
think,etc. Thought I would 🧵 my "how wars end" template presented both at @FletcherRussia & forthcoming at @norwichnews ... 1/
think,etc. Thought I would 🧵 my "how wars end" template presented both at @FletcherRussia & forthcoming at @norwichnews ... 1/
One paradigm is the "walk away/no war, no peace" approach: an adversary stops fighting and holds position, but there are no agreements for a final settlement. Essentially this leads to the frozen conflict model. 2/
There is the "battleship Missouri" model where one party offers a clear surrender and acceptance of terms from the victor. Usually comes after the collapse of the opponent's fighting force and regime, often leads to occupation. In opposition to model 1, ... 3/
where stopping combat operations is the overriding imperative, this paradigm assumes willingness to continue the struggle to push for surrender from the other party. So these two visions of how wars end stand at either end of the spectrum. 4/
Two middle approaches. The "Talleyrand" approach is where the side that is losing (after having starting the conflict) bargains away the leader and accepts some losses and conditions, but more or less emerges from the conflict intact and with most of its power potentials 5/
left untouched. The other powers have decided that the cost of fighting to full victory is too high and see equities in maintaining the losing power as part of the system. 6/
The model of the Dayton Accords is where outside powers assemble the disputants, negotiate and cajole the parties, producing a compromise settlement where the aggressors give up a number of their gains, but are not fully defeated, because the costs of their defeat is viewed 7/
as too costly. The outside powers also have to guarantee the settlement--but also have to pressure their allies/partners to accept terms that they themselves might not have wanted. 8/
Not advocating or arguing for any of these, but presenting as a way to assist the ongoing discussions. END
Addendum: our @USAmbUN saying today U.S. will not attempt what constitutes acceptable compromises for Ukraine in any talks with Russia.
And @CurtMonash has a variant of these options, essentially combining the Talleyrand & Dayton models ..
https://twitter.com/curtmonash/status/1505518729387552768
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