Thread by @jacknicas

Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of the world’s wheat exports, 17% of corn, 32% of barley & 75% of sunflower seed oil. Russia also exports about 15% of the world's fertilizer.

Now all of that food and fertilizer are stuck.

My story on a looming crisis:
nytimes.com/2022/03/20/wor…

Some more worrisome stats:

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, wheat prices have increased by 21%, barley by 33% and some fertilizers by 40%.

The UN said the war's impact on the food market could cause another 7.6 million to 13.1 million people to go hungry.
nytimes.com/2022/03/20/wor…

Consider: Armenia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan & Eritrea have imported all of their wheat from Russia & Ukraine.

Now they need new sources, but they're competing against bigger buyers like Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh & Iran, which got more than 60% of their wheat from Russia & Ukraine.

And all of them will be bidding on an even smaller supply because China is buying much more than usual.

China just revealed that flooding delayed a third of its wheat crop, and now the upcoming harvest "can be said to be the worst in history,” said China’s agriculture minister.

North Africa & the Middle East rely on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. High food prices have also long been a catalyst for political upheavals there.

As a result, many governments subsidize food, but now high prices are squeezing budgets.

By @VivianHYee:
nytimes.com/2022/02/25/wor…

The war in Ukraine is exacerbating humanitarian crises elsewhere.

Aid workers in Afghanistan say it is making it more difficult to feed the 23 million Afghans — more than half the population — who already don't have enough to eat.

More from @Tmgneff: nytimes.com/live/2022/03/1…

But it's not just food. Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, and it has told its producers to halt exports.

Another major fertilizer exporter? Russia’s closest ally, Belarus. Just before the war, Belarus’s fertilizer exports were also blocked because of sanctions.

Brazil, the world’s largest producer of soybeans, purchases nearly half its potash fertilizer from Russia and Belarus. It has just three months of stockpiles left.

Now farmers are using less, if any, and the soybean crop, already hit by a drought, is likely to be even smaller.

Brazil sells most of its soybeans to China, which mostly uses them to feed livestock.

Fewer, pricier soybeans could force ranchers to cut back on animal feed, meaning smaller cows, pigs and chickens — and higher prices for meat.

Read our full story: nytimes.com/2022/03/20/wor…