Jack Niewold Profile picture
Mar 22 15 tweets 4 min read
THE FOUR HORSEMAN OF THE SUPERCYCLE

🧵
A personal thesis, helped along by smart people.

No reason to take this as gospel.

But this idea the reason I went full-time in crypto a little less than a year ago.
TL;DR

The supercycle happens with an essential mainstreaming of crypto.

I have outlined this mainstreaming with four 'horseman,' or sequential steps towards a supercycle.

They are:

1. Mainstream use cases
2. Mainstreaming of narrative
3. New primitives
4. Critical Mass
The original idea of a supercycle came from @zhusu

• adoption steams forward rapidly
• institutional and mainstream capital comes into the space
• a P2P 'internet of value' removes middlemen and distributes ownership to users

Not up only; but up forever
THE FIRST HORSEMAN: MAINSTREAM USE CASES
The cutting edge of mainstream use cases for crypto was NFTs: bash them if you want but even my mom heard about them

We're now seeing NFTs represent community ownership.

Something that fungible tokens originally promised.

Ownership of digital culture. Product-market-fit.
Other Mainstream Use Cases:

• Decentralized Loan Origination
• Private Payments
• Uncensorable Money

With many more to come.
THE SECOND HORSEMAN: MAINSTREAM NARRATIVE SHIFT
Crypto was originally branded as a lottery: speculative gambling instruments without real value.

With nation-state adoption we will see this change.

Crypto will soon mean:

• Decentralized
• Sovereign
• Trustless
• Free

A narrative shifts from 'don't hold' to 'must-hold.'
THE THIRD HORSEMAN: NEW PRIMITIVES

Crypto goes from copying to innovating.

@cdixon describes this shift away from 'mapping to previous tech' below:
I can think of a few exciting new primitives are more or less 'crypto-native' and exist already in the crypto space:

• Tokenomic design
• Asset composability
• Squeeth

But the supercycle will take these ideas and expand on them in ways that are simply unimaginable today.
THE FOURTH HORSEMAN: CRITICAL MASS

Crypto-idolized @cobie summed this up best with his quote below:
The third horseman assumes crypto unlocks use cases and value beyond speculation.

We change from:
• Absurd valuations due to potential

To:
• Absurd valuations due to intrinsic value

At this point crypto cannot be ignored.
I truly believe in a supercycle that is around the corner: the conditions of fourth-turning style turmoil are setting a stage that crypto clearly addresses.

Sooner or later, it is coming.
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More from @JackNiewold

Mar 23
Ethereum’s Merge is coming

Here’s what you need to know, explained simply.

🧵
Part 1: Understanding the Merge

• What's happening
• Why it's happening
• How it works
The merge is the Ethereum's transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

PoS: Blockchain consensus comes from people (stakers) who lock up their Ethereum.

PoW: Consensus for the blockchain comes from people (miners) who secure the network with computing power.
Read 19 tweets
Mar 21
What's going on with Layer Zero, how to actually understand Etherscan, and the 'institutional' money coming to rescue our bags.

🧵 a thread of the best crypto tweets from last week:
Eth is a resource, and you are insufficiently bullish on its use cases.

@CroissantEth

Understanding the other DACA: DAOs as Capital Allocators

Or, the on-chain orgs coming to rescue our bags:

@BenGiove

Read 14 tweets
Mar 17
I want to talk to you about a new financial primitive.

One that's still very new in crypto.

One that might break stablecoins like Tether and UST.

A 🧵 on Beanstalk 🌱

Or, how debt and credit might revolutionize DeFi
1. THE PROBLEM

Centralized Stables like Tether hold dollars off-chain. The issue? Supply is constrained and the usage can be censored.

Decentralized Stables can't be censored, but require overcollateralization, so they're limited in supply.

Stables can't keep up with demand.
If there aren't enough stablecoins to go around, and there's not enough collateral to produce all of the stablecoins required, what's the solution?

What if don't have collateral in the first place: what if we issue a stablecoin based on credit?
Read 21 tweets
Mar 14
A crypto survival handbook, the million dollar $LUNA bet, and a roadmap to ETH $20k.

🧵 a thread of the best crypto tweets from last week:
Read 14 tweets
Mar 11
Sick of seeing recycled 'alpha' and garbage TA on your timeline?

An average Twitter feed produces average results.

Your error? You're not cultivating a network of microcap gigabrains to follow.

These are the most underrated accounts on Crypto Twitter:

🧵
1. Compound Finance | @investcompound

The epitome of TradFi-turned-degenerate, Compound Finance cut their teeth on Excel Macros but now run a delta neutral/stablecoin fund seeking out cross-chain yields.

Follow For: in-depth valuation models.

2. Dennis Qian | @dennis_qian

I start all of my Mondays with a read-through of Dennis Qian's weekly Twitter thread, Monday Morning DeFi Alpha. He covers all ecosystems without prejudice.

Follow For: Up-to-date info on yields, drama, and fresh alpha.

Read 13 tweets
Mar 9
Alright, I did it so you don't have to.

Here's a thread on what Biden's executive order sets out for the industry.

And what that might might mean for crypto investors like you and me.

🧵
First of all, it's important to touch on what this executive order does.

When people think: 'executive order,' they think there will be an immediate change.

With this one, not so much.
No direct action will be taken from this order, at least yet.

It only lays out a process and series of deadlines for an interagency team to write framework around digital assets in 6 different, broad, categories.

This will culminate in report delivered to the president.
Read 19 tweets

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