Thread by @JackNiewold

THE FOUR HORSEMAN OF THE SUPERCYCLE

🧵

A personal thesis, helped along by smart people.

No reason to take this as gospel.

But this idea the reason I went full-time in crypto a little less than a year ago.

TL;DR

The supercycle happens with an essential mainstreaming of crypto.

I have outlined this mainstreaming with four 'horseman,' or sequential steps towards a supercycle.

They are:

1. Mainstream use cases
2. Mainstreaming of narrative
3. New primitives
4. Critical Mass

The original idea of a supercycle came from @zhusu

• adoption steams forward rapidly
• institutional and mainstream capital comes into the space
• a P2P 'internet of value' removes middlemen and distributes ownership to users

Not up only; but up forever

THE FIRST HORSEMAN: MAINSTREAM USE CASES

The cutting edge of mainstream use cases for crypto was NFTs: bash them if you want but even my mom heard about them

We're now seeing NFTs represent community ownership.

Something that fungible tokens originally promised.

Ownership of digital culture. Product-market-fit.

Other Mainstream Use Cases:

• Decentralized Loan Origination
• Private Payments
• Uncensorable Money

With many more to come.

THE SECOND HORSEMAN: MAINSTREAM NARRATIVE SHIFT

Crypto was originally branded as a lottery: speculative gambling instruments without real value.

With nation-state adoption we will see this change.

Crypto will soon mean:

• Decentralized
• Sovereign
• Trustless
• Free

A narrative shifts from 'don't hold' to 'must-hold.'

THE THIRD HORSEMAN: NEW PRIMITIVES

Crypto goes from copying to innovating.

@cdixon describes this shift away from 'mapping to previous tech' below:

I can think of a few exciting new primitives are more or less 'crypto-native' and exist already in the crypto space:

• Tokenomic design
• Asset composability
• Squeeth

But the supercycle will take these ideas and expand on them in ways that are simply unimaginable today.

THE FOURTH HORSEMAN: CRITICAL MASS

Crypto-idolized @cobie summed this up best with his quote below:

The third horseman assumes crypto unlocks use cases and value beyond speculation.

We change from:
• Absurd valuations due to potential

To:
• Absurd valuations due to intrinsic value

At this point crypto cannot be ignored.

I truly believe in a supercycle that is around the corner: the conditions of fourth-turning style turmoil are setting a stage that crypto clearly addresses.

Sooner or later, it is coming.

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