Thread by @sb_moller

What to expect at this week’s NATO Leaders’ Gathering. A 🧵.

On Thursday, President Biden and the other 29 @NATO leaders will gather in Brussels for an extraordinary meeting to address the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Here’s what you need to know: 1/x

The meeting is unusual. This will be the 4th high-level gathering of NATO leaders since the war in Ukraine began last month. 2/x

Although NATO foreign ministers & defense ministers typically gather several times a year in Brussels, NATO Heads of State & Government normally only meet in person every other year. 3/x

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, NATO leaders held a virtual session on February 25 to discuss their collective response. 4/x

This was followed by an in-person mtg of NATO foreign ministers (along with foreign ministers of Sweden, Finland, and the EU) at the Alliance’s Brussels’ Headquarters in early March to “address the longer-term implications of Russia’s aggression for Euro-Atlantic security.” 5/x

NATO Defense Ministers followed with their own in-person meeting last week. Now it’s the leaders’ turn. 6/x

The timing of this leaders’ meeting and the fact that it is being held in person (as opposed to virtually like the February 25 meeting,) is made all the more unusual given that NATO leaders were already slated to meet in a few months’ time. 7/x

In June, the leaders will come together again (in Madrid) to unveil the Alliance’s new Strategic Concept, the first in over a decade. The document, which lays out NATO’s strategy for meeting the security challenges facing the Alliance...8x/

has undoubtedly undergone some revisions given the events of the past few weeks. 9/x

So why are NATO leaders’ meeting now? The meeting is both symbolic and intended to fulfill a deeper purpose. 10/x

Although the Alliance has already taken several steps to address Putin’s aggression, a photo op of the leaders standing together in a united picture of resolve amidst Moscow’s ongoing crimes against the Ukrainian people is a powerful symbol. 11/x

No statement or image of dozens of heads of state on a Zoom screen can convey quite the same message of a united transatlantic alliance as an in-person gathering at NATO Headquarters. 12/x

Beyond the symbolic value of showing Moscow and the rest of the world that the Allies remain seized of the issue, the meeting is also intended to help set the stage for what comes next. 13/x

It’s no secret that the Alliance, despite the unprecedented steps it’s already taken to arm the Ukrainian military and reinforce its force posture in Eastern and Central European member states in recent weeks, is still divided over how to respond to Russian aggression. 14/x

The MiG-29 debacle earlier this month – in which Poland got out ahead of Washington and offered to transfer all of its Soviet-era jets to Ukraine via a U.S. air base in Germany – is only one example of this divide. 15/x

Unlike Washington and other NATO capitals, the Polish government is known to favor stronger NATO military assistance for Ukraine, to include a possible NATO-enforced no-fly zone. The MiG PR stunt was a clumsy effort by Warsaw to force the Biden administration’s hand. 16/x

Beyond the obvious solidarity behind such a visit, last week’s visit to Kyiv by the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic was similarly intended to spur other Allies to do more for Ukraine. 17/x

The visit of three heads of state of NATO to the wartime capital posed a number of problems for the Alliance. 18/x

Had something happened to the prime ministers while they were there, Article 5 is unlikely to have applied since the Alliance’s collective defense clause only applies to attacks on territory of member states (not persons who knowingly enter a war zone). 19/x

Still, the visit put the Alliance in an awkward position. However much the image bolstered the Ukrainian government... 20/x

it simultaneously revealed a fractured Alliance in that it once again showed that the Eastern & Central European allies want NATO to go further than Washington (and other allies) is prepared to go. 21/x

The MiG story and ministers’ visit both challenge the narrative of a united and cohesive NATO at a crucial moment in its history. Thursday’s summit is intended in part to rectify that. 22/x

Unlike normal summits where the text of the declaration is typically hammered out weeks in advance, the deliverables this time will be more circumscribed. 23/x

Along with firming up several already announced decisions – like the new enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup for Slovakia – the Alliance is expected to announce additional military assistance for Ukraine and other steps to strengthen its deterrence and defense in the east. 24/x

Finally, and just as importantly, the meeting will provide leaders a final opportunity to push for further measures (and lay the groundwork for still more deliverables) that can be finalized in the coming months and announced at the June summit in Madrid. #end

@JimGoldgeier @Judy_Dempsey @jteurope @AKendallTaylor @ClaudMajor @alexbward @j_kirby1 @SangerNYT @ConStelz