I often observe people making decisions if their odds of being right are greater than 50 percent. (1/5) 
What they fail to see is how much better off they'd be if they raised their chances even more (you can almost always improve your odds of being right by doing things that will give you more information). (2/5)
The expected value gain from raising the probability of being right from 51 percent to 85 percent (i.e., by 34 percentage points) is seventeen times more than raising the odds of being right from 49 percent (which is probably wrong) (3/5)
to 51 percent (which is only a little more likely to be right). Think of the probability as a measure of how often you're likely to be wrong. Raising the probability of being right by 34 percentage points means that a third of your bets will switch from losses to wins. (4/5)
That's why it pays to stress-test your thinking, even when you're pretty sure you're right. #principleoftheday (5/5)
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