It’s hard to overstate the scale of the cost of living crisis coming - but the Chancellor has prioritised burnishing his tax-cutting credentials over support for the low-to-middle income households hardest hit by this crisis - THREAD
Rising inflation is forecast to make the year ahead very difficult for family finances. Real household income per person is set to fall by 2.2 per cent in 2022-23, the largest financial year fall on record going back to 1956-57.
The current fall in real wages is not projected to end until late 2023, and will leave average wages no higher than in 2007.
The highest inflation in 40 years also means that real household disposable income per person – a key measure of living standards – is forecast to fall faster in 2022-23 than in any other financial year on record (back to 1956-57) even after measures announced in today.
Given this situation, the Chancellor has chosen to significantly expand his previously announced energy cost support measures, that now add up to a total of £19.4 billion.
However, this package of immediate support is poorly targeted at those most likely to struggle with the rising cost of living, with only £1 in every £3 announced today going to the bottom half of the income distribution.
Read our full reaction here - and keep an eye out for our full overnight analysis, which we'll be publishing first thing tomorrow - and presenting at our 9:00am event, which you can sign up to watch here: resolutionfoundation.org/events/waiting…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1. Support for households in the face of the cost of living crisis.
2. Set up the tax cuts to come.
Did he deliver?
@JamesSmithRF The key economic context is the @OBR_UK forecasting the highest inflation for 40 years this year....
@JamesSmithRF@OBR_UK The Chancellor's policy response centred around a 5p fuel duty cut, a big increase in the NICs threshold and £500 million increase to the Household Support Fund (plus energy bills rebate package announced earlier). Notably nothing to address the £11bn real-terms cuts to benefits.
Some fiscal charts on today's #SpringStatement 🧵- The Chancellor benefitted from a significant improvement in the underlying fiscal outlook, with the OBR expecting cumulative borrowing over the forecast to be over £42bn lower (in today's prices) than expected back in October.
In line with the fall in borrowing, government debt is also forecast to be lower throughout the forecast, with it now expected to fall below 80 per cent of GDP by 2026-27.
The Chancellor has decided to 'spend' only a minority of the improvement in the fiscal outlook on tax cuts. In 2026-27, the OBR project underlying borrowing to be £15bn lower than previously forecast, while new policies add just £3bn to borrowing.
Today's #SpringStatement comes as households face a prolonged period of high inflation. The OBR has more than doubled its forecast for inflation in Q4 2022 to 8.7% – the highest in 40 years. This means pay packets will continue to shrink, along with vital income support like UC🧵
The highest inflation in 40 years means that real household disposable income per person – a key measure of living standards – is forecast to fall faster in 2022-23 than in any other financial year on record (back to 1956-57) even after measures announced in the Spring Statement.
The current fall in real wages is now not projected to end until late 2023, and will leave average wages no higher in real terms than they were back in 2007.
Today's #SpringStatement comes as households face a prolonged period of high inflation. The OBR has more than doubled its forecast for inflation in Q4 2022 to 8.7% – the highest in 40 years. This means pay packets will continue to shrink, along with vital income support like UC.
As the chart below makes clear, real household disposable income per person – a key measure of living standards – is forecast to fall faster in 2022-23 than in any other financial year on record (back to 1956-57) even after measures announced in the Spring Statement.
The impact of inflation on day-to-day public spending is lower than expected due to the source of inflation being largely imported. Overall spending is expected to be around £5.6 billion smaller in real terms in 2026-27 than expected in autumn
We're excited to announce our investment in Ikigai Data, a careers data and insights platform supporting further education alumni into better work. bit.ly/3i9CAGY
Ikigai Data can tackle the disruption for young people and work created by the pandemic, with recent @resfoundation research from @_louisemurphy highlighting the need for support for young people to recover from the economic shocks of the pandemic. resolutionfoundation.org/publications/l…
The Workertech Partnership exists to back early-stage tech startups seeking to improve the world of work for low-paid and precarious workers and we're excited to be working on it with @jrf_uk@FProvFoundation@AccentureUK@UfiTrust@trustforlondon.
New WorkerTech newsletter from @EmmaSelinger out today, with the latest Workertech news, including valuable insights from @UfiTrust on how tech innovations can help workers to access effective and flexible training in order to prosper at work. Read it here resolutionfoundation.org/comment/worker…
Digital technology plays an essential role in helping develop new tools and approaches to learning for work, with companies such as @learnerbly, @SonicjobsApp and @getupskillme already developing skills and training solutions.
If you have an idea for how to transform learning for work, @UfiTrust#VocTechSeed applications are open now until 9 Feb 2022 for grants of up to £50,000, with pre-application workshops available. Find out more about the grant fund at ufi.co.uk/seed