1. Climate and ecological breakdown are now imminent and probable. Crucial Earth systems are approaching tipping points from which there is no return.
2. Nuclear war looks once more like a realistic prospect. As Vladimir Putin becomes bogged down in Ukraine, and if he starts to lose public support in Russia, he could be tempted to take the obvious short cut.
3. In combination with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, contagious export restrictions and systemic fragility, the impacts of 1. could push world food prices so high this year that the number of undernourished people might rise by hundreds of millions.
4. Inequality, and the perverse politics of austerity that reinforce it, have become so extreme in some countries that, even as billionaires greatly increase their wealth, many people face destitution.
5. Oligarchic power – the disproportionate political influence of billionaires and multi-millionaires – is now so embedded in many nations that it threatens to destroy democracy.
6. This power is used to confuse, distract and mislead us about challenges 1, 3, 4 and 5, ensuring that we neither see them clearly nor act on them. This leads to challenge 7, the greatest challenge of all.
7. Even as we face this astonishing series of existential crises, vast numbers of people appear to be blithely unaware of them, or at least to act as if they are. We focus on anything except the issues we should attend to. We live in a dream.
We cannot hope to survive challenges 1-6 unless we can resolve challenge 7.
So what you do here, and in all the other conversations you have, counts for something. It might even count for everything.
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1. Let's take a look at what the government means by #deregulation.
Does it mean making life easier for people who are struggling to get by?
Not a bit of it.
Thread/
2. People who need state benefits, refugees seeking asylum, even people seeking probate on a dead parent's will, find themselves meshed in an impenetrable thicket of red tape.
Has it got better? No, it's got worse.
3. But let's say, to take an entirely random example, you're a ferry company that wants to sack its crews illegally and replace them with underpaid agency workers.
Or a water company that wants to pump raw sewage into a river....
How many more warnings do we need that we are facing the prospect of a cascading regime shift?
The shift will push planetary conditions into a new state.
This state will be hostile to the species that thrived in the old one.
Species like us. theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…
This is not to say that nothing else is important. I don't want to downgrade other crucial issues
But, by comparison to this fundamental change of state, everything else *will* fade into insignificance.
Yet it remains at the bottom of the agenda, if it features at all.
In retrospect, if there is a retrospect, we'll see the current phase of our slide towards disaster as the least comprehensible of all.
We knew what was happening.
The writing was on the wall.
Yet we carried on opening new oil fields, driving SUVs, leaving homes uninsulated.
We need to talk about #Westplaining.
It’s a term coined by the Eastern European left to describe a tendency of certain Western leftists to ascribe everything that happens east of Germany to Western policy.
Thread/
Those I read on the Eastern European left really hate Westplaining. Why? Because it denies their lived reality. It supposes that anyone living beyond 15° East has no agency, and is passively subject to the whims of Western strategy.
It suggests that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc were manipulated by the West into joining NATO, because they have no interests or will of their own. It suggests that Putin is a mere puppet of Western machinations, who can be yanked about as if he were made of rags.
1. Every time I express my disgust about the UK's treatment of refugees (not just from Ukraine), people jump up to say: "so you'll be offering your spare room then?"
There's a short answer: I don't have a spare room.
There's a shorter answer: eff off.
And a longer one: Thread/
2. The demand that individuals solve systemic problems caused by government policy, economic inequality etc is fundamental to neoliberalism. Neoliberalism denies the role of collective action and effective politics. It seeks to individuate both the blame and the solutions.
3. Governments constantly play to this. While, with the government’s encouragement, it is commendable – in fact wonderful – that people with spare rooms are offering them to refugees, this is no substitute for effective state policy.
1. One of the big lies used to impede our transition to a low-carbon economy is that householders couldn’t afford the renovations. But there’s no reason why they should carry this cost. Let me introduce you to the Italian Superbonus scheme. It’s astonishing.
Thread/
2. It’s not perfect. There has been some maladministration and corruption. Some people question whether it’s the best way to go about it. But it’s yet another sign that when governments want to spend money, they can. It’s called the Superbonus scheme because, wait for it, ….
3. … it pays (as a 5-year tax credit) 110% of the cost of the energy and seismic improvements you make to your home. Yes, 110%. (The 10% is to cover transaction and finance costs etc). An Italian friend has received a credit of €120,000.
1. As Germany reactivates its coal-burning power stations in response to the double whammy of Putin’s threat to gas supplies and the closure of its last nuclear reactors, please remember that the harms falsely attributed to nuclear can be correctly attributed to coal. Thread/
2. Let’s begin with total death rate, *including* the deaths caused by nuclear accidents, but *excluding* the deaths attributable to coal and caused by climate breakdown. As you can see, nuclear is massively safer.
3. Were we to include the climate deaths caused by coal burning, the contrast would be even starker. In fact, coal burning could help push us into systemic environmental collapse.