Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Mar 25 โ€ข 4 tweets โ€ข 2 min read
European natural gas fell after the US said it will send more LNG
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ

๐Ÿšข White House said it will strive to send additional 15bcm of US LNG to Europe this year (Europe has said it needs 50bcm more LNG to quit Russian gas)
๐Ÿ“‰ Dutch TTF futures fall 9%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
HOWEVER, it is still unclear how the US will be able to send more LNG to Europe

โ“ Nearly all US LNG tied up in long-term contracts
โ“ US LNG plants already running at max capacity
โ“ New supply will take years to come online
TL;DR: It is unlikely that the US can significantly ramp-up exports to Europe

But it is likely that European utilities will sign more deals with future US LNG export projects (that will come online from 2025)

European natural gas futures erased losses and are now up 1.3%

The market is realizing that the US has little ability to boost LNG exports to Europe in the short term

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More from @SStapczynski

Mar 26
Not since Carter was President are governments under pressure to ask citizens to cut energy consumption for the greater good โšก๏ธ

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe aims to quit Russian energy addiction
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China grapples with power shortages
๐ŸŒŽ Surging fuel prices stretch grids

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
The issues of today mirror the oil crisis in the 1970s, when producers in the Middle East stopped exporting crude to the US and its allies

US President Richard Nixon urged citizens to turn down their thermostats and set speed limits of 55 miles per hour to cut demand for oil Image
President Carter famously spoke directly to the American people in a โ€œfireside chatโ€ in 1977, wearing a yellow cardigan sweater and asking people to bear a share of the burden to solve the energy problem

His comments are as relevant today as they were back then ImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Mar 25
Will Europe single-handedly support another wave of US LNG export projects? ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ’ฐ

This is the most interesting bit from the US-EU energy task force ๐Ÿ‘‡

If realized, the EU will buy an additional 36 million tons/year of US LNG. That's enough to support several new projects

#FID
That 50 bcm (or 36mmtpa) isn't some made-up number. That's how much the European Union plans to import to help rid itself of Russian LNG

And now the EU thinks it can fill that entire gap with US LNG

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
Some US LNG export projects vying for FID:

> Corpus Christi Stage 3 -- 10mtpa (mostly contracted)
> Plaquemines -- 10mtpa (mostly contracted)
> Driftwood -- 11mtpa (mostly contracted)
> Cameron T4 -- 6mtpa
> Freeport T4 -- 8.4mtpa
> Commonwealth -- 8.4mtpa
> Rio Grande -- 11mtpa
Read 4 tweets
Mar 24
Biden, EU leaders to announce effort to direct US LNG shipments to Europe, Washington Post reports
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ

But how?
โ“ Nearly all US LNG tide up in long-term contracts
โ“ US LNG plants already at max capacity
โ“ New supply will take years to come online

washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/โ€ฆ
The US may try to convince buyers of American LNG to sell their shipments to Europe

For example, China or Japan could sell more spare US LNG cargoes to Europe

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
โ“ Nearly all US LNG **tied up** in long-term contracts

#Ughhhh
Read 8 tweets
Mar 23
Russia will start demanding payment for its natural gas shipments to states that it deems โ€œunfriendlyโ€ in rubles, said President Putin
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐ŸฅŠ ๐Ÿšจ

๐Ÿ“ˆ Europe natural gas futures surge as much as 21%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Members of the EU and the UK are considered unfriendly

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
Natural gas prices were already rising ahead of anther round of US/EU sanctions against Russia ๐Ÿ‘€
European gas prices rose as high as 132 euros/mwh ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
China aims to boost power capacity by more than 30% through 2025 ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณโšก

๐Ÿ˜ฎ To put that into context: the 800-gigawatt growth goal is twice the size of Indiaโ€™s entire power fleet (!!)
๐Ÿ’ช China also plans to increase gas output to improve energy security

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
The ambitious power capacity target comes as China ramps up renewable installations, which operate for fewer hours over the year than traditional thermal plants and therefore require more capacity to generate the same amount of electricity
๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ China aims to lift domestic crude oil output back to 200 million tons a year and keep it at that level. Production fell below that level in 2016 after oil prices crashed

#OOTT
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
Indiaโ€™s domestic coal prices are surging as buyers scramble to secure fuel ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿชจ

๐Ÿ’ด Customers paid a premium of more than 340% above base prices this month via local auctions (Jan. was just a 100% premium)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Global coal supply crunch sends prices higher

bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
These domestic coal shipments are still way cheaper than the price of importing fuel from the overseas market ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Thermal coal loaded at Australiaโ€™s Newcastle port soared to a record earlier this month as buyers shun Russian shipments and seek alternatives to pricey natural gas
Coal India, the worldโ€™s top producer of the fuel, sells about 15%-20% of its output through an online auction system in which consumers make offers above a minimum set price

Rates paid are typically far higher than the long-term contracts that account for the majority of sales
Read 4 tweets

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