Not since Carter was President are governments under pressure to ask citizens to cut energy consumption for the greater good ⚡️

🇪🇺 Europe aims to quit Russian energy addiction
🇨🇳 China grapples with power shortages
🌎 Surging fuel prices stretch grids

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The issues of today mirror the oil crisis in the 1970s, when producers in the Middle East stopped exporting crude to the US and its allies

US President Richard Nixon urged citizens to turn down their thermostats and set speed limits of 55 miles per hour to cut demand for oil
President Carter famously spoke directly to the American people in a “fireside chat” in 1977, wearing a yellow cardigan sweater and asking people to bear a share of the burden to solve the energy problem

His comments are as relevant today as they were back then
No US president after Carter has attempted to invoke such a spirit of sacrifice from the country’s citizens. Even Joe Biden has so far only urged for more supply both domestically and from large Middle Eastern producers

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
(As you can guess, it isn’t terribly popular for politicians to ask citizens to cut power demand or conserve energy.)
Tokyo’s effort in the past week to avoid a catastrophic blackout is the latest example of what people everywhere may soon face, and how a unified approach can make a difference

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tokyo didn’t have enough power supply on Tuesday

At the urgent request of the government, households and factories drastically reduced their power consumption by shutting off lights and turning down thermostats
In only about 12 hours, Tokyo cut total consumption equivalent to an entire day’s electricity used to light the Las Vegas Strip, averting a blackout that would have left as many as 3 million buildings in the dark
Conserving electricity in Japan is known as “setsuden,” and the word became a rallying cry in the decade following the 2011 Fukushima atomic disaster. The meltdowns shut the nation’s 54 reactors

To keep the lights on, the government asked everyone to save power -- and it worked
The years following, Japan came up with innovations to cut power consumption

One effort encouraged typically conservative office staff to replace suits and ties with short-sleeved shirts and comfortable clothes during the hot summer months, to limit use of air conditioners
Certainly, many governments around the world have asked residents to limit electricity use in times of crisis for decades (Please see: Carter cardigan pic)

But what makes Japan’s actions more unique is the extent of the cooperation among citizens, businesses and government
“Setsuden” isn’t a silver bullet -- it acts more as a last resort that comes at a cost to its citizens and sometimes the economy since it may close factories or shut offices, but it helps keep the grid running and people continue to get electricity
Framing the energy crunch to the public is key

The emergency was front and center across Tokyo on Tuesday, with households and businesses bombarded with constant reminders of the crisis. A banner on the side of the TV screamed “power shortage”
The battle against climate change in the decades ahead will make the situation more difficult, and government policies can only go so far

That means leaders will be increasingly turning to ordinary citizens to make sacrifices beyond paying exorbitant prices at the gas pump
Some European politicians started to suggest that citizens will have to do their part to cut energy consumption

“If you don’t want to act on going one degree lower for climate change, do it against Putin,” said Claude Turmes, Luxembourg’s energy minister

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The @IEA is encouraging a temporary thermostat reduction of 1 degree Celsius by consumers to help reduce dependence on Russia

Despite the IEA’s calls, governments around the world for the most part have been cutting fuel taxes or doling out subsidies, which has propped up demand
And now America’s push to boost supplies of liquefied natural gas to Europe is set to leave some of the world’s top buyers in Asia hunting for cargoes, igniting a global fight for every last molecule

Prices will rise and energy conservation will be key

news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-an…
Already, curtailing usage is under consideration in Germany, where more than half of gas imports come from Russia. The infrastructure regulator is talking to business about “unavoidable shutdowns” if energy supply shortages occur

ft.com/content/6b93b8…

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More from @SStapczynski

Mar 25
Will Europe single-handedly support another wave of US LNG export projects? 🇪🇺💰

This is the most interesting bit from the US-EU energy task force 👇

If realized, the EU will buy an additional 36 million tons/year of US LNG. That's enough to support several new projects

#FID
That 50 bcm (or 36mmtpa) isn't some made-up number. That's how much the European Union plans to import to help rid itself of Russian LNG

And now the EU thinks it can fill that entire gap with US LNG

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Some US LNG export projects vying for FID:

> Corpus Christi Stage 3 -- 10mtpa (mostly contracted)
> Plaquemines -- 10mtpa (mostly contracted)
> Driftwood -- 11mtpa (mostly contracted)
> Cameron T4 -- 6mtpa
> Freeport T4 -- 8.4mtpa
> Commonwealth -- 8.4mtpa
> Rio Grande -- 11mtpa
Read 4 tweets
Mar 25
European natural gas fell after the US said it will send more LNG
🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺

🚢 White House said it will strive to send additional 15bcm of US LNG to Europe this year (Europe has said it needs 50bcm more LNG to quit Russian gas)
📉 Dutch TTF futures fall 9%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
HOWEVER, it is still unclear how the US will be able to send more LNG to Europe

❓ Nearly all US LNG tied up in long-term contracts
❓ US LNG plants already running at max capacity
❓ New supply will take years to come online
TL;DR: It is unlikely that the US can significantly ramp-up exports to Europe

But it is likely that European utilities will sign more deals with future US LNG export projects (that will come online from 2025)

Read 4 tweets
Mar 24
Biden, EU leaders to announce effort to direct US LNG shipments to Europe, Washington Post reports
🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺

But how?
❓ Nearly all US LNG tide up in long-term contracts
❓ US LNG plants already at max capacity
❓ New supply will take years to come online

washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
The US may try to convince buyers of American LNG to sell their shipments to Europe

For example, China or Japan could sell more spare US LNG cargoes to Europe

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
❓ Nearly all US LNG **tied up** in long-term contracts

#Ughhhh
Read 8 tweets
Mar 23
Russia will start demanding payment for its natural gas shipments to states that it deems “unfriendly” in rubles, said President Putin
🇷🇺 🥊 🚨

📈 Europe natural gas futures surge as much as 21%
🇪🇺 Members of the EU and the UK are considered unfriendly

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Natural gas prices were already rising ahead of anther round of US/EU sanctions against Russia 👀
European gas prices rose as high as 132 euros/mwh 📈📈📈
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
China aims to boost power capacity by more than 30% through 2025 🇨🇳⚡

😮 To put that into context: the 800-gigawatt growth goal is twice the size of India’s entire power fleet (!!)
💪 China also plans to increase gas output to improve energy security

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The ambitious power capacity target comes as China ramps up renewable installations, which operate for fewer hours over the year than traditional thermal plants and therefore require more capacity to generate the same amount of electricity
🛢️ China aims to lift domestic crude oil output back to 200 million tons a year and keep it at that level. Production fell below that level in 2016 after oil prices crashed

#OOTT
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
India’s domestic coal prices are surging as buyers scramble to secure fuel 🇮🇳🪨

💴 Customers paid a premium of more than 340% above base prices this month via local auctions (Jan. was just a 100% premium)
📈 Global coal supply crunch sends prices higher

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
These domestic coal shipments are still way cheaper than the price of importing fuel from the overseas market 💰

Thermal coal loaded at Australia’s Newcastle port soared to a record earlier this month as buyers shun Russian shipments and seek alternatives to pricey natural gas
Coal India, the world’s top producer of the fuel, sells about 15%-20% of its output through an online auction system in which consumers make offers above a minimum set price

Rates paid are typically far higher than the long-term contracts that account for the majority of sales
Read 4 tweets

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