Thread by @DPC_global

At today’s European Council #EUCO, Zagreb racked up another success in pushing its aggressive agenda for #Bosnia and Herzegovina. Based on the information presently available, the following reference to #BiH will appear in the Conclusions:

“The European Council discussed the prolonged political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The European Union reiterates its commitment to the European perspective of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Western Balkans…

Leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina need to demonstrate a strong commitment to finalise swiftly the constitutional and electoral reform vital for stability and full functionality of the country, …

as well as to support all other priority reforms set out in the Commission’s Opinion to obtain a candidate status. The European Union stands ready to continue its high-level engagement in this regard.”

This only minimally differs from the wording put forward by @AndrejPlenkovic.

His success today will almost certainly push @eu_eeas’s @aneichhorst to restart the dangerous, ill-designed negotiations on so-called election law reform (ELR) – declared closed after the failed last round last weekend.

Though @AndrejPlenkovic allegedly annoyed most of his #EUCO colleagues today with his aggressive push, no one seriously pushed back except for Dutch @MinPres.

This mirrors Croatia’s successful push at Monday’s #FAC, when Zagreb for the first time in half a decade managed to enter the term “equality of constituent peoples” in an official EU document (the Strategic Compass).

https://twitter.com/tobyvogel/status/1506559100053860356

Adding to this last week’s Council decision to change the decision-making mode in applying restrictive measures in #BiH, this is the 3rd time in 8 days that the EU’s big member states, and liberal majority, …

surrendered the Union’s BiH policy to illiberal member states – Hungary and Croatia (on BiH).

https://twitter.com/DPC_global/status/1505288015828168714

There are only two possible explanations to this unprecedented performance, which hurts EU interests in BiH, threatens the stability of BiH and the Union’s security interests in the Western Balkans, and encourages Putin to open a second front in Europe, i.e. in #BiH:

a) Illiberal member states’ agendas are tactically accommodated in order to maintain EU unity against Russia; b) Some member state governments, starting with Berlin, don’t (yet?) have their act together.

This is particularly worrying given that the new German government declared the Western Balkans one of its top political priorities, stressed by @ABaerbock’s recent visit to the region.

In order to mitigate the damage, the German government needs to urgently seize, also publicly, EU leadership on the region. It also needs to recommit to the Merkel government’s 5/21 principles on election law reform. These were:

a) no further deepening of ethnic division; b) implementation of ECtHR ruling in substance, not only in form; c) “legitimate ethnic representation” is not a concept in line w/ EU democratic values & standards.

Germany should declare publicly that it will not vote for BiH candidate status if an ELR deal is struck that violates those principles.

Germany also needs to build a coalition of willing member states to unilaterally introduce sanctions against the RS leadership in order to prevent RS secession moves (under way or announced), and…

… against the HDZ BiH leadership, should it follow through on its threat to prevent, in cooperation with Dodik, the organization of the 10/22 BiH elections.

Germany should also return German troops to EUFOR as part of a push to permanently reinforce troops on the ground, including their stationing in Brcko.