Steve 'Doc' Baty Profile picture
Mar 25 27 tweets 6 min read
We’ll begin today’s reading of the @SatPaper with this article by @secco - thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/13577/Va…

Taylor’s office spent $1 billion on ‘sham’ carbon projects

[The reason I’m going to harp on about this is because next week’s Budget will contain more money for shit projects.]
"Analysis by a former chair of the government’s carbon pricing integrity committee shows almost all the money spent on emissions reduction has gone to projects that did not contribute to reductions."
[Minister Taylor is just one of a number of cabinet members who don’t seem to know how to do the basics of their portfolio. Whether it’s Colbeck not caring about the Aged, or Joyce not grasping infrastructure, they’ll all of a type.]
"One of the Morrison government’s major programs to combat climate change, the Emissions Reduction Fund, has wasted more than a billion dollars of public money on projects that don’t actually reduce net emissions, according to detailed new expert analysis."
"Three-quarters of projects awarded lucrative carbon credits by the government yielded no environmental benefit, according to Professor Andrew Macintosh, ... the director of research at the ANU law school. He described Australia’s carbon market as a “sham”."
[Why should we care about the ERF? Aside from the massive expenditure of public money, it is meant to be a key mechanism by which hard-to-abate industries - such as agriculture - can close the gap between their emissions reduction efforts and net-zero.]
[Emitters can buy credits earned by others who *are taking carbon out of the atmosphere* and offset their vestigial emissions. As we’ll see, there are issues with both sides of that plan… @TheAusInstitute has some really good explainers on their youtube channel.]
"“People are … getting credits for growing trees that are already there,” he says. “... And they are getting credits for operating electricity generators at large landfills that would have operated anyway.”
"Most relevantly to this story, though, he [Macintosh] was chair of a body called the emissions reduction assurance committee (ERAC) from 2013 to the start of 2020."
"On the basis of detailed analysis conducted by Macintosh and his six-member team of economists and ecologists, those standards are low and declining. The government’s Emissions Reduction Fund, he says, amounts to a fraud against both the environment and taxpayers."
[You & I should care about the way the government spends our money. A billion dollars could build a few more schools; 3 large teaching hospitals; cover the cost of increasing social support benefits and lift 100,000 people out of poverty… it matters that it’s wasted.]
"Macintosh concedes he is himself somewhat “implicated”. He says early mistakes in the design of the scheme left loopholes that were exploited by carbon traders and others. But when those mistakes were identified, the government resisted acknowledging them."
[As with the water trading markets, the Government has been loathe to close market design flaws that allow some people to make a lot of money. Especially if those people happen to support the Coalition; and why wouldn’t they.]
“…"“beyond a simple cover-up to what I suggest is more an overt distortion of the scheme to facilitate the issuance of credits for abatement that are either not real or not additional”.”

[For 9 years the Coalition has put its effort into accounting tricks.]
"Macintosh says... Angus Taylor, and the Gov't are engaged in a greenwashing exercise, creating millions of carbon credits of dubious integrity that can then be sold to big carbon polluters ... which can then be claimed as offsets against their emissions."
"In the face of rapidly increasing demand for credits, Macintosh says, the federal government “has made a decision to lower the integrity standards of those credits in order to increase supply”."
[There is an intellectual rot at the heart of this government, whereby an inherent dishonesty pervades everything they do. Our institutions of oversight - like the ANAO - need to be strengthened to protect against future leaders of this ilk.]
"There are various methods by which ACCUs may be generated – 38 in all – but three project types account for 75 per cent of the ACCUs issued under the ERF."
"The 1st is “avoided deforestation”, which simply means not cutting down trees…

The 2nd is called “human-induced regeneration” (HIR).... The idea was that where land had been cleared, landholders could destock it, and the native forests would grow. "
"The third method involves proponents harvesting methane – a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide – from large landfill sites and burning it to create electricity."
[It’s worth reading the articles for the detailed problems with each method, but suffice to say: they are many and varied. These three methods account for 75% of all carbon credits issued.

Note: the link at the beginning of the thread is unlocked.]
"“We analysed 119 projects in NSW and Qld,” Macintosh says. “Roughly half of them experienced either no change in forest cover or a decrease in forest cover since they started. Yet those projects … received in the order of 8-8.5 million carbon credits.””

#satpaper
[I realised I haven’t been putting a hashtag in the thread, so apologies to those who have it muted.]

#SatPaper
"A report by The Australia Institute, released to The Saturday Paper this week, echoes Macintosh’s critique of the CER. “Its role in both development and administration has raised conflict of interest concerns and calls for an official audit,” it says.”

#SatPaper
"The report focuses on a particularly contentious new method of awarding carbon credits for projects employing carbon capture and storage (CCS), a technology that has never been successfully applied, despite billions of dollars devoted to its development by this government."
[Future historians of the Australian policy landscape may well look back on this period of government as a textbook example of the extent to which politicians will contort themselves in order to satisfy large donors. Today it serves as a warning about political donation laws.]
[Here’s the link again for convenience: thesaturdaypaper.com.au/share/13577/Va…

This current government does not deserve another term in office. Many of the politicians serving don’t deserve another term in Parliament. Whilst there may be exceptions, they’re lost in the glare of incompetency.]

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More from @docbaty

Mar 27
Welcome to another week and this one is all about the Federal Budget, which will be handed down tomorrow night. Let’s have a quick look at what we can expect from the Coalition government in this one...
1. Self-congratulation: expect the Coalition to take credit for just about every good piece of data the economy has to offer. (They can’t, and shouldn’t, but they will anyway.)
2. Deflection: Anything bad going on will be attributed to the pandemic, recent flooding, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It won’t be that we weren’t prepared for those things; didn’t respond well; or that things weren’t great beforehand.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 25
Before I get onto the next article, I want to take a moment to talk about Tuesday’s Federal Budget. It is almost certainly going to be a big spending budget. Leaked snippets indicate that it’ll also include some rather useful forward estimates for GDP growth, wages & inflation...
The Coalition’s Budgets since 2013 have included the following three forecasts every time:
* strong GDP growth
* stronger wages growth
* stable inflation.

In other words, a growing economy, rising real wages, and rising standards of living...
This has turned out to be untrue every. Single. Time.

The reason they do it is that it allows them to also forecast a reduction in the deficit - maybe even a budget surplus - at some future point.

It’s like saying: I can spend more now because I’ve been promised a pay rise.
Read 14 tweets
Mar 4
One of the things that should be obvious is that action on climate change is a mainstream, central issue - the need for action, and the nature of that action, and the speed of that action - should be a discussion that brings us together in common cause...
Instead, it used by the political parties - primarily the Coalition and the Greens - as a political tool to create division. You can see the centrist forces backing climate action within the many Voices of independent candidates. Life-long, small l liberals who want action.
These people aren’t being spoken to by the larger parties. They’re being called radicals by the coalition; and not activist enough by the Greens. Labor is silent for fear of getting caught in the cross-fire.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 4
Good morning, and welcome to today’s reading of @SatPaper . With the IPCC report landing last Monday, let’s begin today with @MikeSeccombe’s feature on Angus Taylor - thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/…

"Revealed: Energy companies turn on Angus Taylor”

#SatPaper
"Following revelations the Morrison government pressured AGL to sack its last chief executive, energy companies have increasingly isolated Angus Taylor.”
"This is a story about trust. More specifically, it is a story about just how little trust the major energy companies have for Angus Taylor and the rest of the Morrison government."
Read 45 tweets
Mar 2
We’ve had a few important pieces of economic data released recently and it’s worth just walking through them:
* GDP growth is up, with economic activity increasing by 3.4% in the Dec quarter;
* CPI increased by 1.3% in the Dec Quarter;
* Wages grew by 0.7% in the Dec quarter
* Company profits rose 2% (nearly triple the growth in wages)
* Property prices grew 22% nationally in 2021
* The ASX increased in value 13.6%
* The average rent in Australia increased 7.6%
Despite relatively low unemployment (4.2%) wage earners and renters in Australia went backwards in 2021. Rents rose; prices rose; and wages didn't come close to keeping pace.

But company profits did. And house prices did. And the sharemarket did.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
OK, so let’s take a quick look at today’s CPI figures, and they’re not great numbers. But first, some context around the CPI, why it's of interest, and what today's numbers mean (and don't mean but will try to be blamed on anyway)...
1. Let's start with some context. CPI - Consumer Price Index - is an economic measure that gives us some sense for how quickly prices are going up. The ABS looks at a 'basket' of standard household goods* and tracks their price on a regular basis.
CPI jumps around somewhat, and it can be distorted by the movements of specific goods in response to global events. These can have short-term influences over CPI, which the ABS tends to smooth out of the index. There are methodological questions about what's in that 'basket'...
Read 17 tweets

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