Herewith the main IMF recommendations with my translations.
Recommendations. To restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, implementing a credible and coherent strategy covering both the near and medium term is needed.
Staff recommends a comprehensive set of policies with specific measures:
•Substantial revenue-based fiscal consolidation. Reforms should focus on strengthening VAT and income taxes, through rate increases and base broadening measures.
Fiscal adjustment should be accompanied by energy pricing reforms to reduce fiscal risks from lossmaking public enterprises. Institution building reforms, such as revamping the fiscal rule, would help ensure the credibility of the strategy.
(translation: Increase income tax, VAT, increase electricity tariffs, fuel prices, divest loss making SOE’s like SriLankan, CPC, CEB)
• Developing a comprehensive strategy to restore debt sustainability. (Translation: delay repayments, haircuts for bond holders)
• Near-term monetary policy tightening to ensure that the recent breach of the inflation target band is only temporary. Recent welcome steps to gradually unwind the CBSL’s large treasury bill holdings should continue through close coordination with the Ministry of Finance.
(Translation: stop printing money)
• Gradually restoring a market-determined and flexible exchange rate. To avoid disorderly movements in the exchange rate, the transition should be carefully sequenced and implemented as part of a comprehensive macroeconomic adjustment package.
(Translation: Allow a credible free float of the currency, allow the rupee to depreciate)
• Social safety nets should be strengthened, by increasing spending, widening coverage, and improving targeting, to mitigate the adverse impacts of macroeconomic adjustment on vulnerable
groups. (Translation: Stop the current “Samurdhi” welfare scheme and work out a better system of ensuring only the most needy get help)
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Views similar to the Article IV Report have been expressed over the past several months by local and foreign commentators on Sri Lanka.
The CBSL has also continued to publish its analyses, in addition to providing further in-depth analyses on a confidential basis on market-sensitive policy matters to the Government and engaging in a continued close dialogue with the Government on the same.
Furthermore, several policy adjustments, as indicated in the IMF Report, have already been made by the MoF and the CBSL. These include monetary policy tightening since August 2021, allowing exchange rate flexibility, removing restrictions on foreign exchange market transactions,
IMF’s Sri Lanka: 2021 Article IV Consultation Staff Report says that COVID-19 severely hit the economy, causing a loss of tourism receipts and necessitating several strict lockdowns. Pre-pandemic tax cuts and the impact of COVID-19 led to fiscal deficits larger than 10 percent of
GDP in 2020 and 2021 and a rapid increase in public debt to 119 percent of GDP in 2021. Sri Lanka’s access to international capital markets was lost in 2020, prompting a decline of international reserves to critically low levels and large-scale direct lending to the government by
the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). External debt repayments and a widening current account deficit have led to foreign exchange (FX) shortages, while the official exchange rate has been de facto fixed since April 2021. Inflation is on the rise, reaching double digits