Thread by @BonicMichael

Reading The HD Tea Leaves:
DPRK releases state-produced video of Kim Jong-un overseeing the launch of Hwasong-17 ICBM. What is the message?
via @YouTube

2/This is like a Rorschach test. What do you see?
I) A "rogue regime" headed by a "murderous dictator" whose people have no freedom or knowledge of the outside world bent on forcefully reunifying the Korean Peninsula by force & who uses fear to subjugate the North Korean people?

3/Or:
II) A sovereign country de facto No First Use nuclear state that believes the only way to guarantee its security against US treats of preemptive nuclear first strike (rhetoric Yoon has already used), regime change & decapitation strike (& threats of other states) is thru

4/building its war deterrent via the only means capable of deterring a "hostile USA" - nuclear deterrence - which 80% of the DPRK population approves of b/c they fully respect the leadership of their Respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un who is defending them against US's threats

5/against DPRK's sovereignty, socialism and economic prosperity. When DPRK signed the Armistice in 1953 it was looking to a ☮️treaty. The US armed ROK w/ nukes. The DPRK reciprocated in kind.
I) US's position is: "No ☮️ treaty until you give us your nukes".
II) DPRK's position

6/is: "We won't negotiate limiting our nuclear deterrence capability (forget about CVID, that'll never happen) until you're ready to sign a ☮️ treaty & normalize relations w/ a nuclear DPRK."
I like DPRK's position b/c its is completely rational and self-defensive in nature

7/If the USA absolutely refuses to make good on its word of signing a ☮️ Treaty inked in the Armistice Agreement, the DPRK is absolutely right to maintain its nuclear deterrence capability b/c USA just proves its word cannot be trusted. Look at Libya. Look at Ukraine which

8/destroyed it's Soviet-era nukes to join the NPT. If it kept them do you think Putin would've invaded Ukraine? I highly doubt it.
NUCLEAR DETERRENCE IS A MEANS OF DEFENSE AGAINST MORE POWERFUL, ESP, NUCLEAR STATES. ANY COUNTRY WILL THINK TWICE BEFORE MESSING W/ THE DPRK.

9/Look up "deterrence theory". So when you watch the videos DPRK released of the launch of the Hwasong-17 ICBM missile know that at home it was met w/ cheers of patriotic North Korean citizens
North Korean Women's Socialist Rights In Motion via
@YouTube

10/To sum things up:
DPRK wants ☮️, but since the US doesn't want to give  ☮️ as long as DPRK has nukes, and DPRK isn't renouncing it's nuclear weapons program in a post-Trump era, it's prepared for a "nuclear showdown" should the US go down that road. In other words, in a

11/theoretical game of Nuclear Chicken an initial parameter is already set: If the US & ROK under conservative Yoon take an escalatory track, accusing DPRK of being the "threat" which they have to counter (by moving IRBMs into the region or using threatening rhetoric), DPRK isn't

12/going to be the one backing down (i.e. chickening out). It'll be Korean War Revisited (2.0: The Nuclear Sequel).
So in a world where rationality prevails, the Hwasong-17 will keep ☮️ & stability in NE Asia as long as it's never employed in the theater. Washington should be

13/asking: "How do we get DPRK to agree to put on the brakes of its nuclear deterrence program?"
There is ONE WAY this can happen: Acknowledging DPRK as a nuclear state, crafting a MUTUAL SECURITY GUARANTEES DEAL and normalizing US-DPRK relations. Trump attempted that but fell

14/short when, out of the blue, Stephen Biegun's forecast of the US being "prepared to pursue 'simultaneously and in parallel' all of the commitments outlined at the Trump-Kim Singapore Summit" was hijacked by John Bolton's last-minute All-Or-Nothing plan

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1507787178801213443?s=20&t=VhG3MnjRT387DOf_qYz0tA

15/that was scrawled on a piece of paper and handed to Kim Jong Un demanding DPRK surrender all its nukes, ICBMs & WMDs before the US would even consider lifting sanctions. Maybe 'all or nothing' works in the business world but it failed catastrophically in the high-stakes

16/diplomacy of US-DPRK relations. Kim maintained his 'double moratorium' under Trump. Today, ROK's President Yoon, WHO ACTUALLY SAID he thinks a""preemptive strike" against North Korea would curb war and protect peace", will be in office to 2027.

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1507792241691017216?s=20&t=VhG3MnjRT387DOf_qYz0tA

17/The US and ROK can do their Olympic-medal-worthy mental gymnastics to rationalize DPRK's goal is still to reinvade South Korea and reunify the peninsula under socialism. That belief is the de facto premise for the US-ROK alliance. But times have change.

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1488044263887671297?s=20&t=VhG3MnjRT387DOf_qYz0tA

18/So while DPRK is looking forward, deeming the US incapable of building trust and good relations, and a lunatic now occupies the Blue House, the DPRK is sending a message to Yoon: "If you're so stupid to do a preemptive strike against us, this is what will come down on you."

19/The real threat to peace in NE Asia is when leaders have no conception of the principles of deterrence theory 👇 
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrenc…
and wrongly mistake DPRK's purely self-defensive nuclear deterrence as an "imminent threat" to their national security (as John Bolton

20/put it in is far-fetched paper👇).
Anyone w/ a sense of pragmatic realism must realize that when a former US Ambassador to the UN argues for a preemptive nuclear strike on DPRK, you can't blame DPRK for building up its nuclear deterrence capabilities.
wsj.com/articles/the-l…

21/So Kim Jong Un has showcased DPRK's latest tool in its nuclear deterrence kit, the Hwasong-17, as a warning: "Don't mess w/ the DPRK." The irrational majority in Washington & Blue House will probably see: "This threat must be stopped." If, in reality, DPRK's nukes will never

22/be used unless DPRK is attacked by another nuclear state (or ally of US like ROK) then the greatest danger we face is Yoon &/or the US & allies making threatening or escalatory moves against the DPRK. Ignorance, ADHD & stupidity remain humankind's greatest existential threat.

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