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Mar 26 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Climate scientists expect environmental ruin at 2°C by between 2037 and 2046 or soon after assuming economic growth continues, and have begun to consider degrowth action in the latest IPCC report. 🧵
1. 'This is historical. For the first time since its original report in 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has talked about degrowth.' ~ @timparrique
timotheeparrique.com/degrowth-in-th…
2. 'After a brief discussion on what transformation means, the section presents “two contrasting schools of thought, called ecomodernism and degrowth[i].” Ecomodernism, it is written, “aims to decouple greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental pressures from GDP '..
3. [Gross Domestic Product] growth.” In contrast, “degrowth proponents question the feasibility of decoupling at a scale and rate sufficient for meeting Paris Agreement Goals”[ii] (Chap 1, p.67). The same point is repeated a paragraph later: “degrowth scholars emphasize that..
4. global absolute decoupling is currently not proceeding fast enough to meet Paris Agreement targets”[iii] (Chap 1, p.68).'

timotheeparrique.com/degrowth-in-th…

Economic growth is wrecking the habitable Earth in so many ways, and cannot protect species or anyone.
5. Most scientists expect catastrophic 2°C by the 2040s or 2050s.

Thread:
6.
'environmental ruin'

Theead:
7. Thread:

8.

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Mar 28
BREAKING: Biden reveals $800 billion plan for climate change

THREAD.. 🧵
1. The US plan is still to wreck our stable climate by giving $800 billion to the military every year to maintain the fossil fuel economy and intensify global warming.

We have 8 years left to slash emissions.

We need political and economic system change.
finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-202…
2. Economic growth will take us to horrific 1.8- 2.4°C of average global temperature rise by 2050 (or 2090 if we're 'lucky').

The IPCC is now talking about degrowth - which would improve most people's lives - as one of our only remaining options.

Thread:
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 27
In 40 years time, Earth will suffer somewhere between 1.75°C and 4°C of global warming with utterly fragmented tropical rainforests *if* economic growth continues. Many or most people & species simply would not cope. Scientists now say degrowth MUST be considered for survival. 🧵
1. Degrowth means living well in harmony with the natural world. Millionaires & billionaires would have to give up wealth for the benefit of everyone else & all species. Growth can't curb deforestation and threatens fast mass extinction.

2- 4°C by 2062/64: ImageImage
2. Five years ago, 20,000 scientists signed a paper stating that to avoid 'vast human misery' economic growth would have to be re-thought.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has niw indicated that 'degrowth' is one of our only remaining options:
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 27
1. Communicate the reality of the threat of economic growth; rethink energy use, consumption, and everything; and organise for political system change to protect species and everyone.

See thread:

2. The IPCC is beginning to talk about degrowth. Ecomodernism cannot keep us below 1.8C this century or stop habitat destruction - a postgrowth world is the only way forward to limit the damage and slow down mass extinction.

3. Economic growth is already leading to the collapse of Earth's major ecosystems due to rapid land-clearing, logging, deforestation, pollution, etc, etc.

The recent IPCC reports tell us economic growth will likely lead to 2.1C-4C hell by 2070.

Thread:
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 26
Last year I was surprised the IPCC decided climate sensitivity of 4.1-4.5°C is no longer considered likely. The likely range is now 2.5-4°C. I'd understood key recent papers showed this range was likely, not to mention Dr James Hansen's scepticism of models & suggestion of 6°C.🧵
1. A key IPCC paper:

If CO₂ hits 560 ppm & stays there 'there is up to an 18% chance that temperatures will rise to 4.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

'this “likely range” has narrowed to, at most, 2.3°C to 4.5°C – or possibly an even narrower range*.'theconversation.com/just-how-sensi…
2. Sherwood et al. (2020): 'used multiple lines of evidence' to argue that ECS above 4.5C is unlikely.
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…

A climate scientist did offer me an explanation of the narrowed 2.5-4C range but I rather struggled with the rationale.
Read 14 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 25
Children born today will struggle on a ruined 2°C Earth by the time they're teenagers if the high emissions spurred by our current economic growth system continue much longer. 🧵
1. We can expect 1.91- 2.1°C as a trend by 2035-2041 (or a one off with trend soon after) with economic growth.

A billion children are already suffering poverty/abrupt climate change.

2°C may hit by 2030-2034 when children born today will be 7- 12 years old.

System change now.
2. '1 billion children – nearly half the world's 2.2 billion children – live in one of the 33 countries classified as “extremely high-risk”... figures likely to get worse as the impacts of climate change accelerate'

Where are the system change headlines?unicef.org/press-releases…
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 23
Did you know 10,000s of scientists agree we must rethink economic growth now or face vast human misery as we exceed 417 ppm of atmospheric CO2 for the first time in 20 million years?

Climate justice action could protect people & species, but journalists remain shamefully silent.
1. Economic growth will mean climate-extinction calamity at 1.7°C-2.5°C by 2045.

An implausible-looking lower emissions scenario that assumes economic growth means 1.7°C or much, much more by the 2040s even if achieved.

Support independent media.

Thread:
2. Economic growth is taking us to 1.5°C horrors or worse by around 2027-2029.

1.7°C-2°C possible by 2030-2032.

But it's not just abrupt climate change.

Deforestation, logging, mining, plastic & chemical pollution, insecticides, road-building, etc, etc.
Read 5 tweets

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