Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Mar 27 11 tweets 2 min read
Poland has released a ten point plan to end the war in Ukraine.

I'll outline them and explain how close the West is to implementing them /1
1) Cutting Russian banks off from SWIFT

Major Russian banks were cut off from SWIFT early in the war, but since then, the West's approach has been more incremental

Poland believes these delays could allow Russia to get around SWIFT (ie. by working with China and India) /2
2) Asylum for Russian Military Defectors

This idea has gained traction by US academics led by Timur Khan from Duke University, but has received limited discussion in the US or EU

Potential spy infiltration might be reason
3) Suspend Russian propaganda in Europe

RT and Sputnik have been thrown off the air in Britain and the EU

Switzerland has objected to this ban, saying fighting disinformation with facts is a better strategy
4) Block Russian ships from European ports

Britain announced a ban on February 28, and while the EU hinted at something similar on March 1, it was reported by March 11 that this ban was a "distant prospect"
5) Block Road Transport in and out of Russia

Concerns are growing about road freight through Belarus being used to evade sanctions

But trucks still move through European countries, including hawkish nations like Lithuania
6) Sanction Oligarchs and their entire business environment

Individual sanctions took effect first, but the West is moving to crack down on state-owned companies with some loopholes in the energy sector

The US sanctioning Rosatom again would be a big move in this direction
7) Ban visas for all Russians entering the EU

An extreme measure, which might be viewed by many as too much collective punishment

Joe Biden's efforts to distinguish between the Kremlin and Russian people in Warsaw push subtly against this
8) Sanction all members of the United Russia Party

Another measure that is hard to implement, especially as United Russia has over 2 million card-carrying supporters
9) Ban Export of Technologies Russia Might Use for War

Lots of discussions about this, but slow progress

The EU just sounded the alarm about China supplying tech hardware for war, which could get awkward if the West is doing so as well
10) Exclude Russia from all International Organizations

The US backs Poland's proposal to kick Russia out of the G20, but Interpol has resisted pressure to expel it

Expulsion from UN bodies, such as the UN Human Rights Council and especially, the UNSC are much harder sells

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More from @SamRamani2

Mar 27
Oleg Deripaska, a key Putin oligarch ally, posted a scathing anti-war commentary on Telegram

It also ripped into Joe Biden's Warsaw speech. Some more details /1
Deripaska accused Biden of falsely framing the Ukraine war as a conflict between NATO and Russian oligarchs

He sarcastically asks, "apparently they planned it. Who? Potanin with Yevtushenkov"

This builds on Medvedev's recent comments that oligarchs did not influence Putin /2
Deripaska described the war as "madness" and said "we will be ashamed for a long time before our descendants"

He also stated that Russia and Ukraine, and the West by proxy, extinguished their hope of diplomacy, and instead created a "hellish ideological mobilization" /3
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26
I was in Moscow in 2015 when Russia started its military intervention in Syria

Reflecting on my interviews with Russian experts and officials at that time, I noticed striking parallels with Ukraine. Some more details /1
My interviewees were often ambiguous about Russia's exact mission in Syria

Some said counterterrorism, others said strengthening the Syrian state. Protecting Assad was almost never mentioned.

Ambiguous phrases like demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine mirror this /2
During my various trips to Russia from 2015-18, the benchmarks for success in Syria shifted over time

They generally became more maximalist, but there were also discussions about freezing the war

Shifts in benchmarks in Ukraine (regime change vs. Donbas operation) echo this /3
Read 6 tweets
Mar 26
Dmitry Medvedev just announced the death of the unipolar world order and clarified Russia's conditions for nuclear weapons use. Some details and context /1
Medvedev claimed Russia's war with Ukraine had killed the unipolar order, and hailed the strength of the emerging Russia-China-India bloc

This decision mirrored his rhetoric as president during the 2008 Georgian War, which he viewed as a step towards multipolarity /2
Medvedev also decried Russia-West tensions as worse than the Cold War

Medvedev noted that the US did not try to impose individual sanctions on Soviet leaders, such as Leonid Brezhnev, and that avenues for dialogue were even more narrow /3
Read 8 tweets
Mar 25
Dmitry Medvedev's latest commentary on Telegram provides a chilling and revealing depiction how the Kremlin views the United States and US policy towards Russia. Some more details /1
Medvedev attributes the current crisis in US-Russia relations to poor US strategic thinking after World War II

As America was flush with money, vassals and weapons, it engaged in senseless devastating wars /2
Medvedev attributes this short-termism to Americans' general lack of concern about the future, aside from personal plans and incomes.

He recounts an exchange with a US diplomat in the Middle East, who said "But we don't think so far. Too long!" when speaking about a crisis /3
Read 7 tweets
Mar 25
Sergei Rudskoi from the Russian Armed Forces just released a potentially transformative statement about Russia's objectives in Ukraine. Some more details /1
Rudskoi defined the mission in Ukraine to be the "liberation of Donbas" rather than "demilitarization and denazification"

This aligns with Russia's recent focus on military efforts in eastern Ukraine and suggests that Russia has temporarily shelved its goal of regime change /2
According to Rudskoi, the "liberation of Donbas" is going well

The Luhansk People's Republic controls 93% of Luhansk, while the Donetsk People's Republic controls 54% of Donetsk

Russia also just created a land bridge between Crimea and Donetsk /3
Read 7 tweets
Mar 25
Russia's fixation on US biological weapons facilities in Ukraine has sparked fears that Russia could use WMDs.

The Kremlin is also using the biological weapons threat to rally Russians around the war in Ukraine. Some more details /1
The Kremlin is framing US biolabs as an existential danger to Russia's security.

This reinforces the existential struggle narratives advanced by Putin's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky and Sergei Lavrov, who described the war in Ukraine as a "hybrid, total war" /2
Russia links its efforts to destroy US bioweapons to Pan-Slavism

Leonid Slutsky warned that US bioweapons in Ukraine targeted the "Slavic genotype."

The coincidence between this rhetoric and the anniversary of NATO's bombing of Serbia, which fuelled Pan-Slavism is striking /3
Read 7 tweets

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