Thread by @KatyAShanahan

❗️REDISTRICTING HEARING❗️

Comm'n poised to meet today at 4pm to hear from outside mappers on their full drafts.

Reminder - #FairMaps have:

4️⃣5️⃣D House seats
1️⃣5️⃣D Sen seats

& (among those) toss ups that reflect the purple parts of Ohio (not given to just 1 party)

Here's out the ind mappers' maps stack up to those #FairMaps numbers:

McDonald House
51 safe R, 3 competitive lean R
42 safe D, 3 competitive lean D

Johnson House
53 safe R, 2 competitive lean R
41 safe D, 3 competitive lean D

And for Senate - here's how the ind mappers' map stack up to #FairMaps numbers:

McDonald Senate
18 safe R, 0 competitive lean R
13 safe D, 2 competitive lean D

Johnson Senate
17 safe R, 1 competitive lean R
13 safe D, 2 competitive lean D

Major differences between ind mappers and GOP-run show:

✅Transparency in mapping

✅Maps that meet proportionality

✅Few toss up seats statewide

✅Toss up seats split evenly among Ds and Rs

✅Incumbents NOT considered when drawing maps

(Ofc would've loved more pub input!)

Comm'n will come to order in about 20 minutes after copies are mad of all the maps.

As a reminder, the mappers publicized these maps to the website about 2 hours ago lol

Map links are in Jessie Balmert's tweet below for all the ind maps.

You can watch this hearing live on the Ohio Channel!

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1508145065973227525

Still waiting for Comm'n to come to order, so before they do let me say for the 9543rd time that

🗣Redistricting is about the people and the people should power how maps are drawn 🗣

We could've been having public input/map draft mtgs 13 months ago! 😭

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508176362959347712

Not *entirely* sure what's happening here. Copies have been delivered of the printed out maps, but we're still missing Huffman and Cupp from the hearing room and it sounds like McDonald made an edit to around central Ohio that was just given to caucuses 🤷‍♀️

One major thing to watch today and tomorrow:

Will the GOP Gang of 5 reject the maps drawn by *their own proposed independent mapper*?

Or will they accept that there IS, in fact, a way to draw #FairMaps that don't tilt the scales to unfairly benefit them?

cc: DeWine, LaRose

For folks tuning in at home, we are now one hour after we were *supposed* to have started this hearing.

Ds, LaRose, Faber, and DeWine are here - Cupp, Huffman are not.

The Comm'n is required to adopt new maps TOMORROW and the only scheduled hearing is at 10am (17 hrs from now)

Ope - Sykes and Russo just went into side room, Cupp is now in hearing room and Huffman just walked in (first time I've seen them or Cupp today).

Curiouser and curiouser!

Can confirm: @susantebben's sweater is amazing and a much needed (literal) bright spot to this Sunday evening hearing nearly 7 months after the first redistricting deadline.

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508190360308436992

Hearing the side room (off from hearing room where I am) is where the mediator is - hence delay.

FWIW: LaRose, Faber, and DeWine have been in the main hearing room since 4pm. Cupp and Huffman only just got here.

Thought DeWine was gonna take a leadership role this time 🤔

While we wait, another observation:

GOP said it was impossible to draw new maps in 10 days (redraw timing from SCOhio) and yet these outside mappers have done so in just THREE DAYS (not counting Weds when they got here bc they didn't have data).

GOP stall tactics all the way!

Sykes and Russo just got back from meeting with mediator and now Cupp and Huffman are going back into the side room with mediator.

You'd only know this from being here in the room, no one is announcing anything to even us about what's happening or how long we'll be waiting.

AS A REMINDER:

#FairMaps should be drawn FOR THE PEOPLE, not politicians!

Incumbents need only come into the calculus when labeling Senate districts. Otherwise, we should draw maps to tailor to Ohio's communities (and constitution) above all else.

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508197037426106370

Huffman is now hosting a press gaggle to - again - lecture us about how incumbents should be protected under new maps, so let me reiterate:

NO SIR.

We draw maps to cater to the voters, not politicians. SCOhio made that clear 3 times now. Just...do your job and pass #FairMaps!

Some staffer just tapped Huffman on the shoulder to say, "They're ready to start the hearing"

Mediator has now joined us in the main hearing room. Faber left room for quick second, but all others are here.

I might jinx us, but I think we're about to begin finally!

An easy fix:

PUSH BACK THE PRIMARY, PASS FAIR MAPS, REOPEN THE FILING PERIOD, AND GO!

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508200456014557184

Overheard Faber say just now, "My point is that elections matter."

THEY DO, WHICH IS WHY YOU'RE NOW REQUIRED TO ADOPT #FAIRMAPS - shame you've thumbed your nose at the 2015 and 2018 elections when Ohioans made clear what we wanted from redistricting 🤯

And (two hours later than scheduled 4pm start time) the Comm'n has convened!

All 7 Comm'ners are here and in person. Stay tuned for updates!

Up first is a presentation from the ind mappers who will give a progress report on their draft full maps.

McDonald: We've finalized maps, but have different approaches so we'll details where we've got differences in our maps.

McDonald: Disagreement centers in SW Ohio (Montgomery paired with Greene (makes sense) or Preble/Darke (doesn't make sense)), but otherwise we've been adopting each other's approaches in other parts of the state. Our ultimate #s differ ever so slightly (for seat counts, toss ups)

McDonald: Rest of the state (where we have differences in how to draw districts) should likely be decided by you all who know the state better/might have different tastes about how map looks.

Some differences in maps:

McDonald pairs Lake/Cuyahoga and Montgomery/Greene, Franklin/Pickaway/Licking OR Franklin/Union

Johnson pairs Cuya/Summit and Montgomery/Preble

No initial questions from Comm'ners, so mappers continue

Johnson: Choices likely don't have much constitutional/ct impact - choosing between where Cuya is paired with might change where/how many toss up seats there are and how those seats lean (so a lean D vs lean R)

Also differ in how to deal with Mahoning Co (depending on how you draw that, could get you addl toss up D seats near Cuya Co)

Johnson: Trade off between compactness and partisan balance/symmetry. Ct was clear we need 45-15 D seats in House-Senate, but also need compactness

McDonald: Wondering about 52-55% range for certain seats (that is, once you're out of the 48-52% competitive range, do you care if the seat is either more D or R above that 52% number?)

FWIW, my opinion is the districts should reflect the voters who live there 🤷‍♀️

Johnson: We haven't made a combined set of maps, in part, because we're waiting for you all to give us guidance on outstanding questions from us.

Russo: Mappers mention choice points re proportional rep vs compactness, but what are those trade offs? Compactness/proportional rep are on equal footing in Constitution.

McDonald: My map is more compact than Johnson's map & more parity in toss ups (lol battle of the mappers!)

Johnson: We haven't run compactness reports on our maps bc we were working to ensure you all saw full drafts for this mtg, but we can do so to provide a better analysis/comparison between our two proposals

Some of the challenge up in NE Ohio when drawing districts is rule compliance regarding keeping counties, cities, townships whole. This is where mappers have always run into some sticky areas, but maps overall seem fairly compact.

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508209002961801218

Johnson: Choice point - do you want to go for exact symmetry in toss up seats (so Ds and Rs have exact same number of toss up seats) OR do u want to ensure compactness and have slight diff in D and R toss ups (so, e.g., their maps have diff of just a few toss up seats for Ds/Rs)

Right on to McDonald for standing firm in connecting Montgomery and Greene Counties rather than linking Montgomery with Preble, Darke.

Green-Montgomery makes way more sense for lots of reasons, communities of interest being at the top!

Here are the two maps side by side - McDonald's map (again) would pair Montgomery and Green and Johnson would pair Montgomery and Preble.

Major difference in approach is whether you can create an additional toss up seat in Montgomery County region (McDonald's does, Johnson's does not)

Another perspective on the two maps side by side - how Black communities are impacted in and around Dayton.

Part of why linking Montgomery/Green makes sense is linking Dayton and Springfield and the comms of color in each.

(cue rant about public input being key here)

Rep @Russo4Ohio now rightfully bringing back up the public input that Comm'ners got at their Dayton hearings about pairing Montgomery and Greene.

That is THE PEOPLE SAID WHAT THEY WANTED and it's not linking Montgomery and Preble. That link is a GOP choice (one they made!)

Huffman now asking whether there's a scientific measure for compactness and now I'm sitting here pinging my former fellow SD @lekhashupeck to come train these Comm'ners about the Polsby–Popper test that I *know* was a popular debating topic in the NC mapping process 😵‍💫

@lekhashupeck Sykes: Pairing Mont-Greene to create an add'l competitive seat (that leans R) is what makes most sense. Mappers themselves are at an impasse and we should decide this.

Cupp: It's hard to tell what's all involved here (which is wild for a dude who got these maps 4.5 hours ago)

I want to make very clear that the mappers shared these maps with Comm'ners at 2pm. It is now nearly 7pm and Cupp (who's been sitting in and around this room since 4pm) suggests he hasn't looked at the GD maps well enough to understand their impact.

MY GOD.

Also laughable (slash rage-inducing) to hear Cupp admit that only providing maps on PDFs makes it impossible to understand local impact since the GOP has only EVER provided PDF copies of their maps in advance (or during) hearings where final votes were taken.

Comm'ners got these maps at 2pm. Hearing was supposed to start at 4pm, but didn't until 6pm. It's now 7pm and we're going to recess AGAIN for y'all to look at the GD maps?!

WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN DOING FOR FIVE HOURS ASIDE FROM STALL THIS PROCESS?!

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508215070869794818

Russo: We shouldn't taint mappers' decisions to tailor to incumbents.

🗣MAPS SHOULD REFLECT THE PEOPLE, NOT POLITICIANS🗣

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508215507144437761

McDonald: Ideally for us, you'd pick one of our maps and then we could move forward with that set and iron out differences.

Again we're talking about whether to look at how incumbents fare under the maps so I will again say that MAPS SHOULD TAILOR TO THE PEOPLE, NOT POLITICIANS

McDonald/Johnson debating whether they're done working on compactness (they're not, they need more time)

McDonald reminds us it's 7pm already and next meeting is at 10am tomorrow (lol), offers opp for anyone to come look at these maps (again they've had these for 5 hours!!)

It's worth noting that the two Dem commissioners keep suggesting alternatives to keep the ball rolling.

Rs keep suggesting alternatives that stall the process.

One team is showing up in good faith, the other is undermining it at every turn.

Faber said off-handedly that he likes Mont-Greene pairing better (that's at least 3 in favor of that pairing on the record).

Huffman: These maps look VERY different, not as similar as y'all suggest.

Mapper: As it turns out when you shift lines for 1 seat, it impacts others 😑

Johnson: We aren't familiar with past R maps or where incumbents live, so have no clue how much they differ from what y'all adopted.

McDonald: It takes time to make changes. If you want us to do so, we need to get working on that (hence we need y'all to make a decision here...)

"We asked about this yesterday. I am begging you today to give us guidance." - McDonald on behalf of himself and also all of us who are dying at this continued stalling from the GOP to force us to live under gerrymandered maps for another 2 years (at least).

Huffman just can't resist one more shot at underscoring his (incorrect) understanding of the constitutional provision about how to # Sen districts for incumbents whose terms last beyond redistricting. Perhaps he should go re-read that by name call out in the last SCOhio opinion.

Faber mentions splitting of Dayton four times (shouldn't we be keeping it more together) - this is where public input would come in handy!

Faber now reigniting debate about whether rep fairness is req'd so perhaps he should go read the 3 SCOhio opinions that said YES.

LMAO guess the GOP spokesperson forgot to include this paragraph from the last SCOhio opinion, which says quite plainly that incumbent protection is NOT guaranteed in the Ohio Constitution.

https://twitter.com/susantebben/status/1508219437958111232

The general vibe here is that the mappers are BEGGING the GOP to give them guidance, but the GOP refuses to do so.

The GOP controls this Comm'n and yet it literally cannot lead to get to #FairMaps when it's necessary for them to do so.

A summary of this entire experience tbh.

Cupp now asking for blown up print outs of certain districts, so let me again say that Cupp and his staff have had access to these maps for FIVE HOURS.

In that time, why didn't he have his staff do this if that's what he needed to analyze the maps?

MY GOD this is torturous.

The mappers at this point sound like all of us Ohioans who have been BEGGING for a government in this state that actually leads on issues what matter most to us to provide us more agency over our future.

The GOP just refuses to move from their objective to undermine our power.

The chat now is about all of the line drawing rules in the constitution, which do provide some exceptions to keep counties, cities, townships together in CERTAIN circumstances.

The TL;DR - the more exceptions you take up, the more cracked apart communities are.

Comm'n is standing at ease for Cupp and Sykes to (I think) decide the fate of all of us and whether we'll rot in this Statehouse Hearing Room 313 before we see the Comm'n adopt #FairMaps.

A non-official opinion, of course, from a v tired politico ☠️

Three major map issues outstanding:

Central Ohio (where to pair Franklin), SW Ohio (where to pair Montgomery), NE Ohio (where to pair Cuyahoga, which also impacts Lucas County)

Proposal to recess for 1.5 hours to allow time for more printed maps, try to make choices here 😵‍💫

Rep @Russo4Ohio again to the rescue: At this point we are throwing sand in the gears to progress.

Mappers have given us plenty of time with these maps, y'all need to do your homework and make choices NOW.

SAY THAT, LEADER!

FWIW, the GOP has paired Montgomery Co with Preble/Darke in each of their maps HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY SUGGEST YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU WANT HERE?

My goodness.

Faber says mediation info (incumbents) needs to be incorporated here so AGAIN let me say that incumbent protection IS NOT GUARANTEED in the Constitution!

They're asking for 90 minutes to ensure incumbents are protected. We should reject that choice.

Cupp now making clear that this stalling is all about incumbent protection objectives from GOP.

AGAIN here's what SCOhio had to say about Huffman's incorrect reading of constitutional requirements regarding incumbents in the Senate.

Unanimous mediated Comm'n opinion:

Once mappers are done with map drawing, they SHALL consider incumbents and try to avoid pairing incumbents.

This should NOT have been agreed to - our districts should be tailored to people, not politicians. Period.

Incumbents should be considered ONLY when it comes to labeling the Senate district numbers.

Otherwise, it's our communities - the people - who should be the top priority in map drawing, not politicians.

Our maps are overly rigged to favor the Rs.

They enjoy 75% of our Sen and 65% of our House despite winning just 54% of the vote. That means INHERENTLY more of their members need to be paired to get #FairMaps.

Saying mappers should avoid pairing incumbents begets gerrymandering.

Annnnnd we are BACK in action with the Comm'n - Cupp opens by saying they all had enough time to look at maps.

Russo moves to pair Montgomery and Greene Counties. Sykes seconds.

Huffman: Idk what the ramifications of this decisions are (what did you just use these 90 mins for?)

Huffman is a no.

LaRose: I'm inclined to lean towards Mont+Greene, but how could I possibly vote on this tonight (have seen maps for 7.5 hours at this point)

DeWine: Same.

Faber: Same, but mappers should do all other tasks (i.e. consider incumbents)

WORTH NOTING: GOP paired Mont and Preble 3 other times. LaRose, Faber, DeWine keep saying Greene pairing makes sense so...why not vote with Dems on this point to keep ball rolling??

Rep @Russo4Ohio spot on here:

1) We have voted for 3 other sets of maps - how can you possibly still not understand what pairs you want (you've made this choice b4) or what impact would be?

2) What info is missing for y'all to make choice?

"I'm a bit perplexed" - we all are!

Sykes: Mappers have asked us for guidance (asked yesterday), what else do you all need from them to give them that guidance? We can't wait another day to give them this info...clock is ticking

GOP stall tactics hit again - shame that statewide Rs falling in line with Huffman

ANOTHER GOOD POINT HERE 👇🏼

https://twitter.com/speedette1/status/1508257544480956418

Russo: "Mappers, do you think this is the guidance you need to move forward"

*muffled laughter from the audience at this point bc LOL no, GOP isn't giving any guidance to very straightforward questions to Comm'ners - 7 people who have thrice adopted state leg maps*

Russo removing formal motion for a vote on Montgomery Co if mappers think they can move fwd with the "general sense" that they're getting from the Comm'n.

We're just floating on vibes at this point, not maps.

Cupp again brings up incumbents so AGAIN remember that's irrelevant!

Cupp and Huffman complaining about getting printed out materials from mappers with not enough time for them to review so PERHAPS it is worth a reminder that they have done this to us, their colleagues THE ENTIRE PROCESS.

They are EXPERTS in keeping shit secret until last minute.

Russo: Seems like there's a Comm'n consensus that linking Cuya and Lake makes most sense, so let's just vote on that and move it fwd

Cupp: Not sure which is right direction, but 6 Cuya incumbents are paired

GOP's clear interest is incumbent protection, which SCOhio just knocked

Re Franklin County - it's been paired with Union in multiple previously passed maps, so again not sure why GOP can't come to a decision at this point when they've done so 3 times already.

LaRose: We have to figure out incumbents.

Cannot encapsulate how infuriating this is

Here is the VERY CLEAR paragraph from the last SCOhio opinion striking down the GOP-passed 3rd set of state leg maps holding that incumbent protection IS NOT guaranteed in the Ohio Constitution.

That GOP insists on bringing this up is a problem in light of this opinon.

So after literally no real decision from the Comm'n, Cupp says, "Seems like you've got enough guidance" to mappers and maybe I'm missing something, but all the GOP has said is, "We need to know how to protect our incumbents before we vote one way or the other" and I just -

😵‍💫

LaRose: If there's one thing that'll muck this process is figuring out how many incumbents we've paired.

AGAIN IT IS NECESSARY TO BUNK GOP MEMBERS TO UNRIG OUR MAPS.

GOP needs to get used to this or find other jobs bc this should NOT be this hard

Sykes making point that mediation agreed to rule said that WHEN MAPPERS WERE DONE they would look at incumbent info.

Huffman: No! They have to do it *while* drawing maps to ensure we protect incumbents.

Disagreement is WHEN incumbents are considered

Sykes: Once mappers merge their plans, then they add incumbent info, and THEN they present to us.

Huffman: Mappers?

Mappers: Same result either way for us.

Clear as fuckin mud lmao

Faber is making clear that GOP will have plenty of ways to poo poo the two independent mappers' proposal.

Again - all signs pointing to stall tactics. GOP has done nothing to help this process move forward. Has done everything to stall/slow process down to avoid making progress

Faber has made this point repeatedly (Huffman, too) - "WE are the final sign off, not these outside mappers"

Sets up ability for them to say no to either of the outside maps and to do (fill in the blank) instead. 😵‍💫😭😑🥴

https://twitter.com/JoshRultNews/status/1508262244483682304

Cupp motioning to recess Comm'n until tomorrow at 10am, saying they probably won't convene before then, but if they need to they can without 24 hours' notice (since they aren't adjourned).

No clear decisions were made about county pairings despite mappers begging for guidance