Trinh Profile picture
Mar 27 3 tweets 2 min read
Good morning Asia and the news is not good:

a) Pres Biden was in Poland and oil went to 121/barrel as fear of escalation higher
b) Shanghai Covid cases spiked & now locking down half of it
c) Markets pricing of hikes globally have gone up, even for the ECB.
😬
#stagflation
This week, PMIs for China and Asia are coming out (don't do prelims so we have to wait end of the month for data) & expect China data to be weaker on zero Covid & spiking Omicron and lockdowns/shutdowns.
Bank of Thailand this week. Don't expect any move even if CPI spikes to 5.3%
Yes, I am still bullish Southeast Asia & Australia, especially commodity exporters, in this environment of #stagflation & even if the Fed goes hawkish. And yes, India is considered a loser of higher oil prices but where it loses in the current account, it'll gain in the capital.

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More from @Trinhnomics

Mar 24
Yes, and the reason why it is necessary is because Putin invaded Ukraine and so to respond to a war aggression without escalation, the resorts left are economic aggression via financial sanctions and export controls.

Right?
The question I asked in the panel in response to this is that what alternatives would the West have? As in, if it didn't respond, would it not encourage Putin to go beyond Ukraine? Wouldn't it encourage large powers to conquer smaller ones and ignore international rule of law?
Meaning, while sanctions are a form of war, basically a cold war & financial war, it is necessary to deter further aggressive acts as well as show a strong reaction.

I am not sure what the alternatives are even if sanctions have consequences of pushing Russia closer to China.
Read 19 tweets
Mar 22
Long AUD and short JPY is basically the Russian invasion of Ukraine trade. One is the best of Asia so far rising 4.3% since 24 Feb and JPY has lost -4.6%, reaching 121.2 vs the USD.
Btw, you can also do this with IDR vs JPY as well. Indonesian rupiah is the second best performing FX since the invasion.

What are the drivers? Just look at their trade profiles - long commodity exporters and short the importers.

This has helped IDR absorbed Fed hawkish turn.
Who's not doing well other than JPY? Usual suspects, THB & PHP.

What's wrong w/ THB? A low yielder w/ a hawkish Fed. It also doesn't like higher oil as import bills go higher. And also it doesn't like Russians staying home on a weaker RUB.

Good news? Thailand'll open more!
Read 4 tweets
Feb 25
During the 1930s, the intellectuals of the West worshiped Stalin and his wrote many apologetic pieces to support his cause. And so when he engineered a famine that wiped out 3.9 millions Ukrainians, the NYT Moscow chief Walter Duranty actually defended Stalin & won the Pulitzer.
The good news is that the press is in Ukraine to report what's happening and the atrocity that is happening there.

We must thank them for their reporting while we sit at the comfort of our home. The press is a machine, can be used for good and bad.

theatlantic.com/international/…
The key for people is to be informed, not just what the press reports, but of how the machinery works.

The medium is the content.

For us to know what's going on and press for positive change in the world, we must expose ourselves to a diverse array of information & then judge
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
Urgh, Putin is moving troops into Donbas. Oil, gold and UST up. Risks down.
When I say risks down, I mean risk assets, as in equities & Bitcoin.

Havens rallying. EUR & PLN being sold off.
War started. More sanctions coming & troop deployment into NATO countries. Risk assets sold off in Asian hour. Havens bid like gold, UST, and JPY.

Oil at 99/barrel. Heading higher for sure.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 23
Good morning, let's talk about the Ukraine and Russia crisis & what that means for the world and Asia. Geopolitics are taking stage in markets & this time, it adds to inflation & Fed jitters. Let's talk about the sanctions or "first tranche" of sanctions that happened overnight.
US Sanctions: Russia sovereign debt (primary & not secondary); also on 2 major Russian banks (VEB & military bank), elites and family members. It stopped short of the oil and gas market as it would hurt the US as CPI high. Pres Biden noted this is the 1st tranche of sanctions.
The UK targets Rossiya, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank & the Black Sea Bank.

EU: Targeting as many as 351 members of Russian Duma & businesses linked to Russian actions. Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 Pipeline.

Note that this is just the beginning. Impact?
Read 9 tweets
Feb 15
I watched the Edge of War the other day & it's about Chamberlain appeasement to Hitler in Munich. He thought that appeasing Hitler's thirst to invade stops with giving him the Sudenteland from his ally Czechoslovakia would end in peace.

He gave a speech afterwards about peace.
Of course you know what happens next, Hitler ambition wasn't just the Sudenteland. He was so happy with Chamberlain's wishful approach to geopolitics and proceeded to attack its neighbors. It took the invasion of Poland for war to be declared by the UK on 3 September 1939.
Read 4 tweets

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