Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #stagflation

Most recents (24)


Definition of #stagflation

❎Stagflation is a period of rising inflation but falling output and rising unemployment.

❎Stagflation is often a period of falling real incomes as wages struggle to keep up with rising prices.

❎Stagflation is often caused by a rise in the price of commodities, such as oil. it occurred in the 1970s following the tripling in the price of oil.

❎A degree of stagflation occurred in 2008, following the rise in the price of oil and the start of the global recession.

❎Stagflation is difficult for policy makers. For example, the Central Bank can increase interest rates to reduce inflation or cut interest rates to reduce unemployment. But, they can’t tackle both inflation and unemployment at the same time.

Diagram stagflation
Read 24 tweets
Global macro review 05/01/2022


🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Let’s dig into the April 🧮!

UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing

Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Read 22 tweets
@frankmottek @KABCRadio I listen to @MottekOnMoney each night when I can but am curious why you haven't had @PeterSchiff on (like you did when at @knxnews) after he was spot on about #stagflation long before @elerianm realized it?:

Peter Schiff: Stagflation Will Shock Markets:

@frankmottek @KABCRadio @MottekOnMoney @PeterSchiff @knxnews @elerianm Also disagree with @elerianm's view on #Fedcoin

Warning ‘Fedcoin’ is coming – and it may ‘replace cash and hurt savers as well as allowing gov to track your payments:…

The US dollar could go digital. Here’s what you need to know…
@frankmottek @KABCRadio @MottekOnMoney @PeterSchiff @knxnews @elerianm The War On Cash Entering Bold New Phase:…

The Future of #America: Social Scores, #CBDC (#Fedcoin), Health (Vaccine) Passports:

#TheGreatReset #GreatReset #KlausSchwab #WEF
Read 11 tweets
1/ Préparez prochainement à une rotation de grande ampleur vers la #value. Car en effet elle est inévitable. La question n'est pas de savoir quand ça se produira mais quand. M. le Marché n'aime pas le changement. Les investisseurs #FOMO l'apprendront à leurs dépens. #inflation
2/ Ce que j'en suis sûr, c'est que cette rotation vers la #value se fera dans un contexte dévastateur pour les investisseurs qui bercent naïvement dans le #FED Put. Malheureusement, ce dernier laissera place à un FED Collar.
3/ $TSLA $AAPL $FB $AMZN $MSFT & Co ont tellement profité des politiques monétaires très accommodantes des banques centrales. Et peu importe si leurs fondamentaux intrinsèques sont bons ou pas. Je m'attends à des gros dégagements, et donc un transfert de richesse vers la #value.
Read 15 tweets
Good morning Asia and the news is not good:

a) Pres Biden was in Poland and oil went to 121/barrel as fear of escalation higher
b) Shanghai Covid cases spiked & now locking down half of it
c) Markets pricing of hikes globally have gone up, even for the ECB.
This week, PMIs for China and Asia are coming out (don't do prelims so we have to wait end of the month for data) & expect China data to be weaker on zero Covid & spiking Omicron and lockdowns/shutdowns.
Bank of Thailand this week. Don't expect any move even if CPI spikes to 5.3%
Yes, I am still bullish Southeast Asia & Australia, especially commodity exporters, in this environment of #stagflation & even if the Fed goes hawkish. And yes, India is considered a loser of higher oil prices but where it loses in the current account, it'll gain in the capital.
Read 3 tweets

Global Macro Review 03/27/22


Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the 👁‍🗨 can 👀

Commodities ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ↗️

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

The 🔑 to ↘️ prices is ↗️ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 🔝

Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week 🚀
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months

$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) ⬅️
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)

Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Read 21 tweets
Hello St. Patrick's Day! 🍀🍀

Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are 🍻 the 🕊️🕊️ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC

Let #inflation 🏃

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia 🚀 for a 2nd day 🍀🍀

$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%

Australia ↗️🍀
$ASX 8251 +1.05%

India ↗️🍀
$BSE 57954 +2.0%
Europe a little more subdued but mostly ↗️

$DAX 14410 -0.2%
$FTSE 7305 +0.15%
$CAC 6596 +0.1%
$AEX 707 +0.45%
$IBEX 6410 +0.45%
$MIB 24222 -0.2%
$SMI 11940 +0.35%
$MOEX 🪆💥

$VSTOXX 36.01 🔻🍀
Read 11 tweets
A thread on #Stagflation

Stagflation has been a buzzing word since Friday. Let's understand the concept and how it will impact our equity investment in the near future.

The below pic is very informative showing the implication of inflation on GDP growth.
Economists across the world are trying to interpret the present situation and making their consensus on the most likely upcoming stagflationary phase followed by the Global recession. Economists are cutting their GDP growth forecasts & raising inflation projections.
How is this buzzing suddenly? On Friday gap between yields on US02 year and US10-year notes stood at its narrowest since March 2020, a signal that investors may be anticipating that economic growth will slow down from its current robust pace.
Read 15 tweets
Hello Thursday! 🔥💥

🪆 unleashes 👹

$MOEX -23%
$VIX 36.23
$BRENT +6.3%
$WHEAT +5.7%
$BTC -7.75%
$GOLD +2.0%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↘️↘️

$NIKK 25971 -1.8%
$SSEC 3429 -1.7% (safe haven per Mobius)
$TWII 17595 -2.55%
$HSI 22902 -3.2% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2649 -2.6%
$IDX -1.5%

Australia ↘️↘️
$ASX 6991 -3.0%

India ↘️↘️
$BSE 54964 -4.0% ⬅️
Europe opens ↘️🩸

$DAX 14141 -3.3%
$FTSE 7313 -2.45%
$CAC 3568 -3.15%
$AEX 710 -2.5%
$IBEX 8193 -2.9%
$MIB 35104 -3.3%
$SMI 11688 -2.15%
$MOEX 2344 -24.05% ⬅️🪆🩸

$VSTOXX 33.46
Read 12 tweets
Was bedeutet der #UkraineKonflikt für die #Weltwirtschaft ? Thesen in einem Thread:
1. Der Konflikt trifft auf eine fragile Weltwirtschaft.
2. Diese hat sich von #Corona dank massiver staatlicher Hilfen und #Liquiditätsflutung durch die maßgeblichen Notenbanken deutlich erholt.
3. Was aber angesichts der weiter vorhandenen Angebotsstörungen und der schon seit Jahren zu geringen Investitionen in die Erschließung neuer fossiler Energiequellen (auch aufgrund des Drucks in der Klimapolitik) zu Inflationsdruck geführt hat. 2/3
4. Dies hat in den #USA und #UK aber auch in der #Eurozone den Druck auf die #Notenbanken #EZB #FED erhöht, die geldpolitischen Zügel anzuziehen. 3/4
Read 10 tweets

Global Macro Review 02/013/22


Lots of speculation about where to from here?

Sometimes, it’s as simple as looking at clear Trends

Equities 🐻
Bonds 🐻
Commodities ♉️
Volatility ♉️
Gold 😑

Let’s dig into the 🧮!

With markets closed before 🪆😱, internat’l equities ↗️ last week

$SSEC +3.0% (w) -2.15% (T)
$DAX +2.15% (w) -4.15% (T)
$HSI +1.35% (w) -1.65% (T)
$NIKK +0.95% (w) -6.55% (T)
$CAC +0.9% (w) -1.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.9% (w) -7.45% (T)

Chart: $DAX remains 🐻 (T) = Trend = 3 mos

Chart: $HSI now ♉️ (t) = trade = 1 mo = +2.15%
A close above 25,050 would confirm ♉️ trend
Read 24 tweets
Hello February! 🐰🐰

Biggest mistake of January?
Selling most of my $CRB +9.79% exposure

No 👀 back and 😭 over spilled 🥛

Time to grab the 🐯 by the #tail and dig into the 🧮!
Most of Asia celebrating 🐯

Good idea given January returns with $KOSPI -10.56%, $SSEC -7.65, and $NIKK -6.22%

Tuesday trading
$NIKK 27078 +0.3%
$BSE 58871 +0.8%
January returns for Euro area were ↘️ but better than USA and Asia

January: $DAX -2.6% and $CAC -2.15%

Early trade
$DAX 15599 +0.8%
$FTSE 7533 +0.9%
$CAC 7065 +0.95%
$AEX 762 +0.9%
$IBEX 8706 +1.1%
$MIB 27091 +1.05%
$SMI 12327 +0.8%
$MOEX 3561 +0.9% 🪆
Read 10 tweets
Hello Monday! 🐯

Much of Asia closed for NY eve 🥳🎉🪅🍾

Equity markets building on Friday's gains
No signs of weakness in the $CRB to end the month

Let's dig into the 🧮!
🐯 symbolizes power, courage, confidence, leadership and strength

$NIKK 27001 +1.05%
$HSI 🐯
$IDX 6631 -0.2%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6972 -0.25%

India ↗️
$BSE 58160 +1.7%
Europe opens ↗️

$DAX 15504 +1.2%
$FTSE 7479 +0.2%
$CAC 7020 +0.75%
$AEX 756 +1.55%
$IBEX 8632 +0.25%
$MIB 26899 +1.25%
$SMI 12236 +1.1%
$MOEX 3544 +1.6% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 29.41
Read 11 tweets

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022


With Joe’s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on ↗️ rates and draining 👊🥣

Backward 👀 🧮 shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, but…

@AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% ↘️

With $CRB +15.9% 🚀 off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation ↘️ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend ↘️ markedly y/y 😱

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. 🔝?

Hydrocarbons said 🖕to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the 🐻🐻
Read 15 tweets
Hello Friday!

WTD #dispersion

$CAC -0.65%
$COMPQ -3.0%
$AORD -5.0%
$NIKK -4.9%
$KOSPI -7.75%

$VXN +7.6%

$BTC +0.55%
$AUDUSD -1.95%
$GOLD -2.0%

$NATGAS +13.25%
$PALL +12.45%
$BRENT +2.5%
$CRB +1.0%
$COPPER -2.2%

$TLT -0.4%

Let's dig into the early morning 🧮!
🐻 held sway in Asia with indices ↔️

$NIKK 26717 +2.1% ⬅️
$SSEC 3361 -0.95%
$TWII 17674 -0.15%
$HSI 23550 -1.1%
$KOSPI 2663 +1.85% ⬅️
$IDX 6645 +0.5%

Australia 🦘↗️
$ASX 6998 +2.2%

India ↘️
$BSE 57197 -0.15%
Europe succumbing to the 🐻↘️

$DAX 15293 -1.5%
$FTSE 7486 -0.9%
$CAC 6843 -1.15%
$AEX 742 -1.45%
$IBEX 8602 -1.15%
$FTSE 26561 -1.2%
$SMI 12083 -0.75%
$MOEX 3504 +1.4% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 28.03
Read 11 tweets
Hello 🐫 day!

Oil ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ⬆️⬇️

#VIXperation on tap

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian equities ↘️🐫

$NIKK 27467 -2.8%
$SSEC 3558 -0.35%
$TWII 18227 -0.8%
$HSI 24128 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2842 -0.75%
$IDX 6592 -0.35%

Australia ↘️🐫
$ASX 73332 -1.05%

India ↘️🐫
$BSE 60139 -1.0%
European bourses open ↔️

$DAX 15751 -0.15%
$FTSE 7562 unch
$CAC 7160 +0.35%
$AEX 769 -0.05%
$IBEX 8801 +0.2%
$MIB 27274 -0.8%
$SMI 12520 -0.05%
$MOEX 3442 +3.4% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 21.96 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Wheat will start going up in price, this last harvest was 2013-14 level of production. Anything made with flour yall like? #Stagflation
Wheat is already up 40% since covid started
Milk is spiking, up $1.85 USD/CWT or 10.04% since the beginning of 2022
Read 9 tweets
Palladium is up ~25% since mid-December #Stagflation
Iron Ore is up ~31% since beginning of December #Stagflation
Aluminum is up ~11% since mid-December #Stagflation
Read 22 tweets
My thoughts into #FederalReserve meeting..let's recap:
Last Fed Meeting:Nov 3rd-Fed announces tapering to begin (as expected)
Nov 22nd:Biden nominates Powell for another term
Nov 30th:Powell testifies in Congress and indicates "transitory" is gone&may accelerate taper (cont'd)
This 11/30 testimony was in the wake of new COVID wave (Omicron)&investors assumed Powell would take note of that (didn't)
Yes,there is a #dotplot coming today (last one September)Fed Fund Futures have already done the work (2-3 hikes in 2021)1st hike late spring '22 (cont'd)
since 11/3:we have seen 2yr yields move from low .40's to high .60's & 10yr yields from 1.60's to 1.40's (2/10 spread narrowing dramatically); we have also seen several high inflation prints (CPI/PPI),low jobless claims & unfortunately a major acceleration in COVID cases (cont'd)
Read 6 tweets
When will all this no longer work?

If the greatest asset bubble ever implodes while they’re still running emergency stimulus.

From 2009-2020 they got away with it all because there was no inflation.

Now there is and they’re risking dying on the transitory hill.
They already admitted to getting surprised by higher than expected inflation. Now growth is slowing faster than they expected. Now they’re trapped by both and are desperate to prevent a larger sell-off for fear it would decelerate things further which it would.
Their only solution is to make the asset bubble ever larger, drive inequality ever wider and bring about ever larger financial instability risks all the while employing a policy they already admitted to being counter productive.
Insanity pure.
Read 4 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 06/20/2021…
CDC: Delta variant now 10% of US COVID-19 cases…

#COVID19 #variants #delta #InfectionRate
Inflation in stagflation and inflation in deflation. Same term and two different meanings.…

#stagflation #inflation #deflation #definitions
Read 8 tweets
Ciao Bernie...l'unica differenza con MarioD... è che lui poteva creare liquidità dal nulla e tu no...👽

Colui che è responsabile primo della morte di migliaia di persone...con la sua gestione criminale a base di "tachipirina e vigile attesa"...non solo deve essere rimosso ma deve finire la sua vita al gabbio

Read 490 tweets
The latest Incrementum Chart book; "The dawning of a golden decade" is, as per usual, full of insightful illustrations...Here are a few that stood out to me...
#GlobalTrends #Macro #Stagflation #Inflation #LessonsFromHistory #Investing #Gold (1/3) #US fundamentals...#Commodities ImageImageImageImage
2/3 #Gold price performance in different major currencies...Gold bull/bear markets the long view...Gold vs local stock market performance 2020...#USD index trends, the long view...#Macro #GlobalTrends #Investing ImageImageImageImage
3/3 Purchasing power of main currencies valued in #gold since 1971...Look beyond the last 4 decades for what lies ahead...Historical asset class performance during Stagflationary periods...#GlobalTrends #Macro #Investing #ThePathAhead ImageImageImage
Read 3 tweets
The massive reset of the middle class in 2020 after #COVIDー19

#inflation #deflation #stagflation
#usfed #euro #dollars

Western countries are dealing with this crisis by increasing debts, increasing social spending and hence, ensuring the destruction of their currencies
and their bond markets and impoverishing the citizens along the way.
The destruction of the middle class allows governments to enact all sorts of dangerous policies because the middle class is really what rises up.
However, in other countries, mainly in Asia, Eastern Europe, and even Russia, they’re not handling this in the same fashion.
Many of these countries don’t even have social spending programs to the extent that the West does.
Read 7 tweets

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