Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #stagflation

Most recents (12)

Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
US Equities nearing the top of "Trump Trend Channel."

(Dow lagging, Boeing)

There may be some upside left, but political risk and slowing global economy likely to weigh on stocks in 2020

#Stagflation
$SPX $QQQ
Neither $DAX or $NKY able to break out yet and join the party
Both economies highly leveraged to old industrial world (esp Germany with autos) at a time policy is shifting green

EZ weighed down with regulations & -ive rates
Underperformance to continue
$SMI - A market leader has already tested the top of the trend channel and pulled back

Important signals here if there is follow through
Read 3 tweets
#Stagflation 2020
US CPI coming up this week - and my expectations are for beats on Headline & Core
#Inflation
Energy is set to provide a positive contribution in this release and going forward
And food inflation is poised to accelerate as climate change is having a significant impact on harvests
Read 4 tweets
Good morning! #Equities continue to defy gravity. This has more to do with the insane monetary environment CBs have created. Macro economic reality says something completely different. The division (=the bubble) will come to haunt us all. Please stay tuned for #HZupdates
Why is it, that some analysts try to explain away the obvious? We have a major bubble in ...well almost all assets. #Schiller PE for #SP500 tells us, that the bubble is at 1929-level. Could it grow bigger? Sure!! But that does not make it a non-bubble #HZupdates
Amount of neg. yielding debt has skyrocketed. Remember, this is discount factor. If discount factor is closing in on 0 (or goes neg.) then value of any asset is going to infinity. But that has NOTHING to do with true value of any asset. This is "Bubble food"! #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
EVM Theme: #Stagflation 2020

The US consumer has been the one bright spot in an otherwise slowing global economy this year

Low rates
Cheap #gas
Strong & stable #USD

Consumer discretionary meaningfully outperforming S&P
Meanwhile, commodities have done the exact opposite as deflationary impact of strong USD & trade war dominates global trade
Major outperformance of consumer discretionary vs metals & mining ETF to reverse next year as #stagflation sets in and hits US consumer
Read 3 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning! 😀End of August --> Time to look at some Monthly charts. What does the latest Monthly candles suggest for the road ahead for global economy? Stay tuned for #HZupdates
Yesterday, I posted this chart for #EURUSD. This is very central, as it provides indication for direction of USD. Major topping pattern - backtest in early 2018 - now targeting <0.9. Notice August candle! Zoom-in chart 2. It seems to be very Bearish #HZupdates
Turning towards Monthly chart for #DXY, we got corresponding candle to what we observed in #EURUSD. Bullish which set #DXY on the path towards min. 111, pot. as high as 120. Trend line suggest we could get there by Q1/Q2 2020. USD strength will create global challenges #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
My updated view on #SP500. Is Fed about to disappoint sending #equities much lover towards ~2000 for SP500? Then stepping back in FOR REAL ~Q2 2020 to avoid #DEFLATIONARY Melt-down - which will create bounce in market and later new major decline during #STAGFLATION #HZupdates
One more push lower on #VIX before major bottom - and strong reversal? #HZupdates
#Oil #WTI could be about to embark on final decline towards ~20 USD #HZupdates
Read 5 tweets
So - #Gold is rallying towards AT - right? Bulls have won! Somebody should send the memo to #Silver. While #Silver normally leads or peaks with Gold - Gold has been on its own spree. Man - I would love to join the Gold Euphoria 😉 Bear Flag - perhaps? #HZupdates
Somebody should also send that memo to #GDX. Notice how GDX bottoms and supports Gold in Bull market. New high in Gold = New High in GDX. Not what we see now! #HZupdates
But....#USD is breaking down as Fed will cut rates.... No - it is not! #DXY is CORRECTING in a clear stairs-like structure. We can see 95 or 94 - perhaps lower. But this is no breakdown #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Hi all 😀Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears 😀 I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets

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