Thread by @tomiahonen

Thread On End of Ukraine War 1/

We now have enough understanding of the major dynamics of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and can see, Russia cannot win this war. We can now take a first look at how will this all end. Let's do a Thread about it

#SlavaUkraini #HeroiamSlava

Thread On End of Ukraine War 2/

When I say Russia cannot win the war it started, that is not the same as Ukraine is 'certain' to win

It is possible this becomes a long war of attrition that ends in a draw. But Russia cannot win. And it is HIGHLY likely Ukraine will win this war

Thread On End of Ukraine War 3/

How will this war end? Answer is quite simple, actually. The Russian military & leadership (oligarchs) all KNOW that Putin's war in Ukraine is now unwinnable. They all will personally suffer because of it. The ONLY cause to prolong war is Putin

Thread On End of Ukraine War 4/

Therefore, let's do this Thread examining the Putin factor. Will Putin remain in power past this war or not. That is what determines how long the war lasts

First. It is technically possible Putin dies of natural causes. Don't count on this

Thread On End of Ukraine War 5/

More likely is, that at some point Putin is removed from power by his own oligarchs or military coup d'etat. Very likely that would be an assassination, but could be just removal from power or arrangement like prison, house arrest, or 'retirement'

Thread On End of Ukraine War 6/

The other way to remove Putin from power is a genuine revolution in Russia to overthrow the mad ruler. While this is plausible, this is still unliklely - because the Russian population has been brainwashed in similar way to Fox & Maga in USA

Thread On End of Ukraine War 7/

If Putin is removed from power in any of the above ways, he will be replaced, quite possibly by another autocrat. But whoever it is, the new ruler will blame disaster of Ukraine war on Putin, and rush to end the war. Because of the sanctions

Thread On End of Ukraine War 8/

The fear of assassination & coup d'etat is why Putin is now hiding in his bunker(s) and behind that ridiculous Austin Powers Dr Evil length long table.

If Putin is removed from (or abdicates) power, a peaceful end to Ukraine war would be rapid

Thread On End of Ukraine War 9/

The alternative is Putin remains in power. He cannot defeat Ukraine 'militarily' - so Putin will resort to ever more cruel attacks on civilians. I hope Putin will not escalate past the war crimes he has committed but I fear it will get far worse

Thread On End of Ukraine War 10/

Over time, Ukraine's military will clear the Northern attack that headed to Kyiv. Those Russian soldiers will be killed, captured or pushed back to Belarus. This is likely to take weeks, even months. Then Ukraine has to do same for East & South

Thread On End of Ukraine War 11/

If Putin remains in power and the war lingers on, then Ukraine will defeat the Eastern Russian army and the Southern Russian army, also killing, or capturing or pushing back across Russian border. (I am not assuming a battle for Crimea)

Thread On End of Ukraine War 12/

Because Ukraine becomes the attacker, and Russian forces now defend, the combat dynamics change, and those battles to push out all Russains will take far longer. It is measured at least in many months, could be years before all Russians are out

Thread On End of Ukraine War 13/

But if Putin is still in power, he likely will not admit defeat. He will hide on Russian side of border, and fire bombardment rockets & missiles at Ukraine's cities which he can do for years on. (See missile exchange late stage of Irak-Iran war)

Thread On End of Ukraine War 14/

Notice how cowardly this would be. Putin could have rockets rain on Ukraine for years, warning Ukraine, if Ukraine fires one rocket across that border back into a Russian city as retaliation, Putin will answer with a nuclear weapon

Thread On End of Ukraine War 15/

Because of how Putin bullies his neighbors and with his brutal mass-murdering past already with the Second Chechen War (see!), I am not confident Putin would ever stop the slaughter of civilians in Ukraine, after he has clearly lost this war

Thread On End of Ukraine War 16/

So if Putin remains in power, and the war drags on for years AFTER the Russians have been kicked out of most of Ukraine (not counting Crimea) - it is possible this war ends in a 'draw'. But at least most land incl Donbas will return to Ukraine

Thread On End of Ukraine War 17/

When we understand the key to ending Ukraine war is Putin himself, nothing else matters - and that Putin will continue to slaughter civilians for possibly years to come - then it becomes imperative for all of us to work to DIMINSH Putin's power

Thread On End of Ukraine War 18/

Do everything you can, every day, to help diminish Putin's power. The weaker Putin becomes, the more likely there is a coup d'etat or even revolution against him. We have power on Twitter to influence thoughts, worldwide. Use it

Thread On End of Ukraine War 19/

The thing all dictators fear is ridicule. What Putin personally hates, is the truth about how horribly his war in Urkaine is going. Share the numbers like this excellent chart published every day by @KyivIndependent - it also demoralizes his army

Thread On End of Ukraine War 20/

Ukraine will prevail, Russia will be expelled. It may take many months, it might even take years, but Ukraine will have its own country, independence & the invader will be defeated. We can help Ukraine in diminishing Putin's power

#SlavaUkraini