Over the course of last week we've seen media reports and statements from Russian officials that indicate that:
Russia is ready to drop "denazification" but it is the still the purpose of war;
It was about Donbas all along but Russia's bringing more troops to the war theater
1/7
Russia is ready to drop "denazification" but it is the still the purpose of war;
It was about Donbas all along but Russia's bringing more troops to the war theater
1/7
Russia is recognizing Zelesnky as the sovereign leader of Ukraine and that Ukraine is governed by a Nazi junta;
The negotiations are progressing but nothing of first importance is getting agreed upon.
There are at least several reasons for this ambiguity -
2/7
The negotiations are progressing but nothing of first importance is getting agreed upon.
There are at least several reasons for this ambiguity -
2/7
A number of people that actually know what Russia's policy towards Ukraine now is is close to zero. Even Putin might have not decided what to do and is considering multiple options.
Several of Russian policy makers are attempting to get the most favorable outcomes for
3/7
Several of Russian policy makers are attempting to get the most favorable outcomes for
3/7
themselves and their agencies - so they often project conflicting narrative that are being picked up and misinterpreted both in Russia and especially abroad;
The amount of disinformation coming from all sides is especially critical.
There are however basic assumptions:
4/7
The amount of disinformation coming from all sides is especially critical.
There are however basic assumptions:
4/7
Russia is not winning this war. None of the objectives announced before the war have been accomplished.
"Retreating" to Donbas is the most "face-saving" out of existing options.
We can't even consider long term prospects, as so many variables are yet in play.
5/7
"Retreating" to Donbas is the most "face-saving" out of existing options.
We can't even consider long term prospects, as so many variables are yet in play.
5/7
Even a hypothetical ceasefire would be very temporary and most likely both sides will use it to regroup and resume fighting.
Both Ukraine and the Kremlin are likely to treat this conflict as an existential one. For Ukraine it is a literal situation. For Putin - a failure
6/7
Both Ukraine and the Kremlin are likely to treat this conflict as an existential one. For Ukraine it is a literal situation. For Putin - a failure
6/7
would mark the beginning of decomposition of his regime and inevitable elite confrontation down the road. So yes, both the fate of Ukraine and Russia are being decided in this war.
Conclusion: even if fighting pauses, the war would not end.
7/7
Conclusion: even if fighting pauses, the war would not end.
7/7
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