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Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
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Mar 30 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The invasion of Ukraine has not just had the effect to further EU integration.
Yesterday the 🇪🇺 Commission has disbursed the first tranche of the recovery fund to 🇭🇺 and 🇵🇱, despite their challenge to the EU legal system. A short 🧵/1
ec.europa.eu/info/news/comm…
The role that 🇵🇱 has played in the war in accepting refugees and being at the frontier with fightings has made the EC shelve its controversy with 🇵🇱 and 🇭🇺. However, their challenge to the #RuleofLaw remains an existential one for the 🇪🇺 itself./2
ft.com/content/8620df…
Hopefully the shelving in question will be transitory. The EC can legally still withhold funds for breaches of the #RuleofLaw in the future, since the ECJ has rejected the legal challenge of 🇵🇱 and 🇭🇺 to the legal instrument allowing the EC to do so. /3
rferl.org/a/hungary-pola…
However, this is NOT a way to show the effectiveness of the 🇪🇺 democratic principles in fighting corruption and upholding the #RuleofLaw. The 🇪🇺 should harden its position once the war ends./End

Ukraine war is an opportunity for Europe to reform itself ft.com/content/c4888d…

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More from @gcapoccia1

Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
Apr 1
At 9 days from the 1st round, the situation in the French Presidential elections is becoming clearer, with Macron and Le Pen most likely to get to the 2nd round.

TLDR: ...but we're NOT back to September's easy prediction of Macron's victory over the "unelectable" Le Pen.🧵/1
Macron leads the pack as he has always done; Le Pen is now over 20%, and Mélenchon polls at a somewhat distant third place. /2 Image
The dynamic view: Le Pen and Mélenchon are rising, and Macron is falling. The invasion of Ukraine was positive for Macron's polls, and negative for Le Pen's, Mélenchon's and Zemmour's, but the effect is fading. Strategic voting seems to be kicking in. /3
Read 17 tweets
Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
Nov 3, 2021
Signs of democratic backsliding and executive overreach in the UK multiply. /1🧵
After planning to introduce "mechanisms" through which the executive can neutralize court rulings –for the UK Supreme Court /2
gov.uk/government/spe…
…and the ECtHR); /3
prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-r…
Read 12 tweets
Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
Nov 2, 2021
The Johnson Govt never meant to respect the NI Protocol, so this is the logical outcome. In the meantime the EU has made important concessions. 🧵/1
UK seeks new legal advice to back possible change to N Ireland protocol ft.com/content/3f6c3f…
The UKGovt's goal seems to be that of keeping an open battlefront with the EU for as long as possible, waiting for the international situation to evolve in its favor or against the EU. /2
The signs are there: e.g. the GOP is likely to win a majority in the House of Representatives in next year's mid-term, weakening Biden and its support for Ireland in the NIP dispute. /3
Read 15 tweets
Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
Oct 29, 2021
Like after Brexit in 2016, the battle over the EU's future will be fought in France. /1🧵
Macron won in 2017, after M Le Pen had enthusiastically welcomed Brexit. Today, the extreme right does not advocate "Frexit" or exiting from the Euro, because these are unpopular choices even for its own electorate /2
However, the ER wholeheartedly supports Poland and Hungary in their fight against the EC and the ECJ. They talk up these countries' upholding of "traditional values" against "progressivist" EU, rather than their evident democratic backsliding./3
lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
Read 9 tweets
Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
Oct 28, 2021
Again, unsurprising. The UKGovt does not want an agreement, but wants to disrupt the EU for as long as possible. /1🧵
If the UKG triggers art. 16, the EU would only have left the "nuclear" option of suspending the whole TCA. /2
The EU may or may not do this, but the UKG seems to see the situation as one in which they can ultimately push the EU to impose border checks somewhere (NI/Ireland or Ireland/continent, both politically impossible, or at least very disruptive, options for the EU). /3
Read 7 tweets
Giovanni Capoccia Profile picture
Oct 11, 2021
The perspective of "hollowing out" from within, ie seriously undermining the integrity of the legal order supporting the single market, is the biggest threat faced by the EU at the moment. /1🧵
It is at the heart of the position taken by the Polish Constitutional Tribunal, and it would be the effect (and is probably one of the purposes) of the attack to the jurisdiction of the ECJ in Northern Ireland by the UKGovt. /2
If member states can declare parts of the EU Treaties incompatible with their constitution (Poland), or a different adjudication body replaces the ECJ in NI (UK), EU law would no longer have a single ultimate adjudicator that creates legal certainty for the single market. /3
Read 11 tweets

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