Thread by @syrpis

The discussion last night on #Newsnight on Liz Truss' visit India and 'Global Britain', with contributions from Andrew Bridgen and @pimlicat, was quite something. 1/14

We were treated to an account of how nimble Global Britain, free from the constraints of the EU, is now able to forge trade deals and prosper, seeking out opportunities for mutual advantage with like-minded partners. 2/14

Some of the difficulties were mentioned. India's reluctance to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And the possibility that some of India's asks in the trade negotiations might be difficult for the UK to accept. 3/14

What was (largely) missing was a sense of scale and perspective. There is already trade with India. Any trade deal would aim to ensure that parts of that trade occur, not on the basis of WTO rules, but on more preferential terms. 4/14

The impact of such a trade deal would depend on the difference between trade under such a deal, and trade under pre-existing WTO terms. It is likely to have a positive, but not much more than a negligible, effect. And to involve some uncomfortable terms. 5/14

The impact of Brexit is of a quite different order of magnitude. What has changed there is that we are longer within the single market. So, notwithstanding the TCA, trade with the EU has become more difficult. That is having a *significant* negative effect. 6/14

If we are able, within the framework of the TCA, to agree to apply similar or equivalent standards in more fields, trade with the EU will become easier (and, of course, this applies in a similar way to the scope of any putative deal with India). 7/14

If, on the other hand, we insist on divergence, or on the right to diverge, we will not get those benefits (and, again, this also applies re deals with India, the US, and anybody else). 8/14

It is somewhat surreal to observe the juxtaposition.

Brexiters argue that the UK, which proudly prioritises free trade, should reach agreements with others, and be prepared to brush aside human rights concerns, support for Putin, etc. 9/14

Yet somehow when it comes to countries in the EU, the position is different. Yes, cooperation is important, fundamental to global security, existential even. Yes, they might acknowledge, geography may be a factor in the EU's favour. 10/14

But... we are not prepared to compromise, or to work together with the EU to find common solutions (on eg data privacy, or food safety), which can work to our mutual advantage. 11/14

We are not even prepared to abide by the Treaties we have signed (with the side effect that other states may be less likely to agree deals with us, or may insist on stronger enforcement mechanisms). 12/14

It is almost as if we have become convinced that we face a choice - either to trade with the EU or the rest of world. The uncontroversial reality is that we already trade with both, and will continue to do so. 13/14

Quite why we have chosen to make the biggest chunk of our trade much more difficult, while seeking out marginal gains elsewhere, is difficult to work out. 14/14

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1506703157589651459?s=20&t=iSjC2rpoErHEmk6ORP7WPw