Ukraine War Week 5 Update/1

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now lasted 5 weeks of war. Stage 2 has ended, we have shifted to Stage 3. The Ukrainian army is now starting the hard effort of pushing back the invader Russian army on all 3 fronts. Let's do update Thread at Wk 5
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/2

Stage 1 of the war - Russian advances - ended weeks ago. We entered Stage 2, an exchange of positions on the edge, towns & villages taken & retaken, by both sides for a few weeks which now ended. Russia has no ability to advance anymore, only retreat
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/3

The biggest prize, Battle of Kyiv was decisive victory for Ukraine. Kyiv was never invaded, not even sieged, not even encircled. The Russian army was stopped at the Battle of Irpin. Now that army is in retreat
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/4

The other object was to take Odesa in the South, but that advance was also defeated by Ukraine, Russians never encircled Odesa either and are in retreat in the South.
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/5

Russia's Defense Minister has been disappeared by Putin

The Deputy Defense Minister issued bold promise Russia will shift combat to Eastern front as their losses in North & South were blatant, but Ukraine is now pushing them back in the East as well
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/6

The Russian invader army, 150,000 troops from Russia, 40,000 gangsters, terrorists & thugs from Donbas = 190,000

has lost 17,500 men = 9% of the total invading army killed. Plus about 40,000 more injured. About 30% of Russia's army is out of action
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/7

There is reporting of communication failures, Russians shooting down their own jet plane. Russians disobeying orders. Killing at least one of their commanders aka Col Tanky McLeggy. Failure of logistics, no food, no fuel, no ammo. Death by frostbite
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/8

Putin even ordered the Northern front to dig defensive positions into the Red Forest of Chernobyl, where Russian troops were being irradiated, developing symptoms of radiation poisoning, so Putin is actively sterilizing and killing his own army.
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/9

That Eric Trump level lunatic battle plan has now been abandoned and Russian troops allowed to withdraw from Red Forest to Belarus. But yes, the 'mighty' Russian is in RETREAT away from Kyiv and North into cover and safety of Belarus
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/10

Russia is sending reinforcements to its losing army in Ukraine. 1,000 mercenaries and 2,000 active Russian military from countries occupied by Russia like Georgia, have been sent into Ukraine as reinforcements. They don't even replace the 17,500 dead
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/11

Russia is organizing a new offensive on the Eastern front. This is plain to see on satellite images that USA and EU are sharing with Ukraine, so there will be no 'element of surprise' to the eventual attack. Ukraine will prevail.
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/12

Potentially the biggest single military battle loss to Russia since the middle of the First World War, would be if the (remnants of the) 35th Combined Arms Army are caught in a pocket North of Kyiv & forced to surrender
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/13

Russia lost the Battle of Kyiv. The 35th Combined Arms Army is in retreat, back North towards Belarus. The key is strategic town of Ivankiv & some pontoon bridges near it. Area is swampy forests with 1 road through it. Russia has 12,000 troops there
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/14

It is possible Russia can get most of the 35th CAA out of the Kyiv Pocket aka Bucha Pocket. But over the next 10 days or so, this battle could well turn into one of the biggest surrenders in modern warfare and massive humiliation to Putin
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/15

Talking about #CzarLilliPutin - Bunker Boy and notorious serial collector of long tables has apparently been receiving false reports about the war, as his advisors fear telling the truth to #LilliPutin. So expect more madness from Putin
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/16

Russia cannot win this war on the ground. So they will avenge by slaughtering civilians from afar. This war will turn ever more brutal, & it will take a long time for Ukraine to expel the invaders

West needs to supply Ukraine with tanks, jets etc
Ukraine War Week 5 Update/17

Ukraine will prevail. The Russian invader will be killed, captured or expelled. This third stage of the war will take much more time, months. But have patience & support Ukraine. Ukraine will not give up territory to Putin
#SlavaUkraini #HeroiamSlava

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Tomi T Ahonen Claiming Some Of The Miscalculations

Tomi T Ahonen Claiming Some Of The Miscalculations Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tomiahonen

Apr 1
Chernobyl & Radiation Poisoning by Russia of its own Troops

The story is VERY early. But may be worst nuclear accident in history

Fukushima was 4 direct deaths. Surry was 4. Idaho Falls 3. Tokaimura 2. Marcoule 1

Chernobyl in 1986 was 28 direct deaths

This could be hundreds Image
We know this. Russia took control of the Chernobyl / Chornobyl site of the nuclear accident when they invaded Ukraine 5 weeks ago. They stationed troops at the site. Ukrainian nuclear safety experts WARNED Russians to take precautions & observed poor safety protocols Image
We know that during the Russian occupation of the site, the radioactive dust on the road surfaces was regularly disturbed. There has been more (mildly) radioactive dust permanently at the roads & near the roads - & Russian soldiers NOT WEARING masks or protective gear Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 1
Does this Belgograd helicopter strike pass the smell test?

A short thread: Image
If Ukraine did strike Belgograd twice, once by artillery or rockets at an ammo dump, now second time by helicopter a fuel depot, then good for Ukraine!

But this is HIGHLY suspicious. If you had ability to strike it with missiles like on Tuesday, why risk two attack helicopters?
If you planned to strike the ammo depot and the fuel depot, one by missile one by helicopter, use the element of surprise to do helo attack FIRST, and missile attack (less risk) later

Why attack SAME TOWN?, there are a dozen similar fuel depots dotted on the border
Read 10 tweets
Apr 1
Kyiv Pocket aka Bucha Pocket

As strategic town of Ivankiv, at mouth of the pocket, only exit out for (defeated remnants of) Russian encircled 35th Combined Arms Army has been recaptured, this is my updated map of the pocket. Note red dot is Ivankiv. Now in Ukrainian control Image
This we know:

There were 700 armored vehicles that retreated North of Ivankiv towards Belarus YESTERDAY before Ivankiv was liberated. Those could carry easily 7,000 Russian soldiers, or more than 10K if some were riding on top. Pocket was estimated to have 12K troops

But... Image
It is not known if '700 vehicles' North of Ivankiv had BEEN INSIDE the pocket. They could have been stationed at or near Ivankiv

It is an hour to Belarus border. So those 700 managed to get out

We know Irpin was liberated in combat. Hostomel was abandoned by Russians Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 28
Thread On End of Ukraine War 1/

We now have enough understanding of the major dynamics of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and can see, Russia cannot win this war. We can now take a first look at how will this all end. Let's do a Thread about it

#SlavaUkraini #HeroiamSlava Image
Thread On End of Ukraine War 2/

When I say Russia cannot win the war it started, that is not the same as Ukraine is 'certain' to win

It is possible this becomes a long war of attrition that ends in a draw. But Russia cannot win. And it is HIGHLY likely Ukraine will win this war
Thread On End of Ukraine War 3/

How will this war end? Answer is quite simple, actually. The Russian military & leadership (oligarchs) all KNOW that Putin's war in Ukraine is now unwinnable. They all will personally suffer because of it. The ONLY cause to prolong war is Putin Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 25
Numbers on Ukraine Thread 1/

Let's do some numbers. These are HORRID statistics, and you could argue, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is worst performance of any army in any war in the modern era. That includes Mussolini in Tunisia and General Percival losing Singapore
Numbers on Ukraine Thread 2/

First let's take the overall death toll of Russians. 16,100 dead at one month in. Out of 190,000 total army in Ukraine (150,000 came from Russia, 40,000 were rebel bandits & terrorists already in the Donbas region) that is 8% lost

In one month
Numbers on Ukraine Thread 3/

Russian context 1. In WW2 Stalin brutally sacrificed his soldiers as cannon fodder and 26% of his army died. In four YEARS. That is 6.5% per year. 0.5% per month

In Ukraine Russia is losing SIXTEEN TIMES WORSE than under Stalin's WW2 meat grinder
Read 15 tweets
Mar 25
Many are having this same question. Can they be this dumb? YES This is a PATTERN they did same repeated mistakes for years in Afghanistan, same in First Chechen War. Refuse to learn


Is Russia doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results?
This is a typically Russian military fault. They have a VERY rigid military structure and strict hierarchy of command, and very explicit pattern of behavior. The Russian command structure completely forbids initiative by lower ranked officers - what Western armies TEACH to do
And on a massive 'peasant army' of conscripts, all tasks, methods are standardized, so they can be taught to uneducated soldiers, to learn to do one thing but to do that with military precision. So if there is a fault, they keep repeating it, ignoring damage caused by that fault
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!