Once upon a time I had a friend, Chad.
Chad was great at stock-picking: 69% winners!
I copied all his trades but chose my own position sizes.
His PnL: 420%
My PnL: -5%
Wut happened?
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KELLY CRITERION: A SIMPLE STRATEGY TO MAXIMIZE RETURNS VIA BET SIZE
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1/ What is the Kelly Criterion?
To explain, let's play a game.
We bet on a fair coin.
Heads: u win 51% of ur wager
Tails: u lose 49%.
Now:
How much of ur net worth do u bet on the next toss?
Is it better to bet $69 4200 times or $4200 69 times?
Why should this even matter??
Intuitively, u might be thinking, "Hm, 51-49 odds... that's positive expected value! Why not go all-in & put 100% of my net worth into such an asymmetric trade?!"
Unfortunately, this won't end well.
Assume u start with $10K. Ur almost guaranteed to go broke before 20 trades.
Here you'll learn:
- how markets constantly reshape based on changing expectations, i.e. the natural disequilibrium that drives price action
- Soros's mental model for mapping world events
Here you'll learn:
- a crash course on macroeconomics
- why American life is the way it is today (because of USD reserve status) and whether/how long that will last
- Dalio's mental model for mapping the lifecycle of nations
Why Ukraine's Crisis is Killing Your Portfolio:
Explained in 4 Pictures
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1/ Fed & Inflation Fears
Russia supplies 1/3 of EU gas.
66% of it passes via Ukraine.
What's the tie to inflation?
Russia cuts off energy to EU🔜prices skyrocket in EU🔜 arbitrage traders spread contagion to US energy markets (where gas is 7.5% of CPI)🔜hawkish pressure on Fed.
Russia & Ukraine also supply 25% of global wheat exports.
Meanwhile global warming/droughts add fuel to the fire.
Affect on inflation, Fed & stocks:
Russia cuts off grain supply🔜prices skyrocket🔜 Chicago wheat futures now at 9Y high🔜 MORE hawkish pressure on Fed🔜stocks tank.