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AllThingsVentured Profile picture
@AllVentured
Apr 2, 2022 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Credit Suisse macro guru Zoltan Pozsar is even more bullish #tankers than the tanker bros here on twitter. His latest report makes the same macro call on tanker ton miles that I have been making

I can feel the generalists piling in 🚀

$FRO $EURN $DHT $INSW $STNG $NAT $TNP $NMM ImageImage
And although Zoltan goes into gory detail about tankers, his thesis extends to all seaborne commodities and the ships that transport them.

If he is right about additional bottlenecks, shipping rates across sectors will explode along with underlying ship asset values. Image
Ship values benefit when both the values of the commodities they transport and the steel they are made of increase.

Shipowning companies are levered long expressions of a high inflation macro thesis and could end up being the best performing real asset class this decade.

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More from @AllVentured

AllThingsVentured Profile picture
Dec 5
The main reason #tanker rates and equities have sold off from their June highs?

➡️Huge global inventory drawdowns⬅️

The 150mm bbl drawdown since early June represents 30 VLCC equivalents that went unemployed vs a flat inventory counterfactual.

thread 🧵
2/ With inventories at bottom of 5 year averages, it seems unlikely that inventories decline meaningfully from here. Just returning to flat inventories adds back the +30 VLCCs of demand. Adding the expected 1mm b/d supply/demand growth in 2025 requires another +30 VLCCs.
3/ Therefore my base case for 2025 sees +60 VLCC equivalents employed vs levels seen since June.

This is vs a fleet of ~900 VLCCS so +7% utilization relative to recent months.
Read 8 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
Oct 8
1/ Buried under all of the Middle East and port strike chaos headlines, a very important debate about a carbon tax on shipping is ongoing at IMO meetings this week.

ft.com/content/407307…
2/ Support for a carbon tax is gathering momentum as it would be one of the most simple, economic, and effective ways to lower carbon emissions in the shipping industry. On the other side of the debate are middle income countries responsible for the lion's share of world trade
3/ These major exporters oppose it because it will increase the cost of traded goods which is partially borne by the producer and partially borne by the consumer. Image
Read 8 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
Feb 23
🚨 Breaking 🚨

Biden Admin sanctions 147 vessel Sovcomflot fleet as foretold in the below thread.

A nice gift on a Friday. If history is a guide and we can use COSCO sanctions as a proxy, Tanker longs should do exceptionally well next week.
Image
These sanctions actually DO work.

What few vessels the US has sanctioned due to Russian oil prior to Sovcomflot have been mostly stranded due to the sanctions.
Image
Image
I never trade after hours but felt compelled to today. Picked up a good chunk of $IMPP (had already been buying this dip earlier this week) and $TNK at fair prices. Tried for some $TNP as well but only got a bit.

I count 42x aframax and 15x suezmax in the sovcomflot fleet. If all of these are sidelined, I expect midsize rates to benefit the most which is why I bought the above. $NAT also a good option but already bid up much higher after hours.
Read 5 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
Oct 9, 2023
1/ Just like with the Russia/Ukraine conflict #tankers are likely to be the #1 beneficiary of renewed enforcement on Iran oil sanctions and associated changing trade patterns 🧵:

2/ The Biden Admin is in a tough spot. If Iran orchestrated the latest conflict in Israel, they will have to respond. How to do this without impacting oil prices? After all, turning a blind eye to existing sanctions has allowed Iran to increase exports by a huge ~500kb/d over the past year keeping a lid on prices.
Image
3/ Just like Russia/Ukraine, the strategic objective of the Biden admin will be to keep the oil flowing but limit the economic benefit gained from it by Russia/Iran as attempted with the price cap. Now that we know that price caps don’t work, what better way to do this than to drive up the cost to ship it?

Read 8 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
May 9, 2023
1/ Even if Biden succeeds at forgiving up to $20k of student loan debt and the Supreme court rules it as legal, it only eliminates $430B of the $1.6T of student loan balances currently in forbearance and scheduled to begin repayment by the end of August. Image
2/ Even though 71% of borrowers will still have a balance after $10k-$20k forgiveness or will not receive any forgiveness due to income, ALL eligible federal student loans currently remain in forbearance until this is resolved. Image
3/ Are those that know that they do not qualify or will have a remaining balance after forgiveness still making payments?

🚨🚨 NO 🚨🚨

Just 1.16% of borrowers continued making payments when 71% will still owe EVEN IF forgiveness goes through. Image
Read 9 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
Apr 28, 2023
I had previously speculated that China's impressive >10% growth rate in coal production was unsustainable.

YOY production growth continued to decelerate in March and is now being outstripped by power demand leading to a near doubling of imports YTD.

breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2023/…
In prior years which saw abnormally large % increases in coal production like 2011 and 2015, the following year tended to be flat to down. Meanwhile China just approved the most new coal fired power gen capacity since 2015. ImageImage
Similarly India, the world's second largest producer and consumer of coal, managed a highly unusual and completely unsustainable increase in coal production last year to keep up with demand: reuters.com/markets/commod…
Read 7 tweets

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