Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 3 5 tweets 1 min read
#Ukraine_Russia: The two sides made significant progress in the negotiations. All aspects concern Ukraine and will lead to a ceasefire that both Ukraine and Russia want, albeit for different reasons. For the former, the destruction and the economic and human costs ⤵️
(loss of active population, humanitarian crisis, etc.) will end, while for the latter new sanctions will be launched that harm the economy, the personal interests of the elites and stability. of the regime, These are the aspects that supposedly were agreed upon provisionally⤵️
and detail the concessions made by Ukraine: 1) status of neutrality or non-member of NATO; 2) non-nuclear status; 2) prohibition of foreign military bases; 3) no deployment of foreign troops; 4) non-deployment of offensive attack missile weapons; 5) refusal to develop and ⤵️
produce weapons of mass destruction; 6) refusal to conduct exercises with the participation of foreign troops; 7) establishment of a system of international security guarantees on the neutrality of Ukraine. The two aspects on which no agreement was reached is the status of ⤵️
Crimea and the breakaway regions in the Donbas region. For the deal to work, Crimea and Donbas could be frozen, which will favour only Russia but will also allow the current war to stop (and prevent the refugee crisis in Europe, the food crisis etc.).

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More from @DionisCenusa

Apr 5
#Russia_Sanctions: The EU presented the 5th package of sanctions that has 6 pillars:
1) coal import ban (worth €4 billion per year);
2) exclusion from the EU market share of four key Russian banks, including VTB (23% market share in the Russian banking sector);⤵️
3) ban on Russian ships entering EU ports (exemption of essential elements: agricultural products, food, humanitarian aid, energy resources); and ban on Russian and Belarusian road transport operators;⤵️
4) export bans (worth €10 billion) on quantum computers, advanced semiconductors, sensitive machinery and transport equipment;
5) new import bans (worth €5.5 billion) on wood products, cement, seafood and spirits; and close the loopholes between Russia and Belarus;⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Apr 5
#Russia_Sanctions: The EU will adopt tomorrow the fifth sanctions package combining trade, financial and individual sanctions. The following actions are considered: 1) prohibit the supply of semiconductors, high-tech equipment and LNG production equipment to Russia;⤵️
2) ban Russian imports of wood, cement, rubber, chemicals, "high-end food products" (including caviar), and spirits (vodka); 3) block all transactions with VTB Bank and three other (unnamed) Russian banks; 4) new individual sanctions to the oligarchs and their relatives;⤵️
5) prohibit the entry of Russian trucks and ships. The ban on importing energy is off the table. The chief of EU diplomacy Borrell points the finger at the ⤵️wsj.com/articles/europ…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 4
#Russia_Sanctions: Germany and others demanded that Russia fulfill the gas contract in terms of currency of payment. That means that most of the EU states want to save the contractual provisions on gas supply not the viceversa. Consequently, an EU ban on energy imports⤵️
from Russia is unlikely (at least until the end of 2022, when some hope the war to be over and the need to cut off the energy imports to disappear). The EU's sanctions package, fueled by the evidence of atrocities of Russian army in Ukraine, may include a ban on the use of⤵️
European ports (except for the supply of agri-food, nobody wants a food crisis) and the disconnection of SWIFT for Sberbank and other smaller banks (not for Gazprom Bank, which is still important for the payment of gas).⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
#Russia_Sanctions: The new sanctions are justifiable and unavoidable. The question is whether they will affect energy imports from Russia or not. Also, will the new sanctions stop the war before the socio-economic consequences turn against the EU states? I see that Putin is⤵️
betting and willing that the EU states cut down the Russian oil and gas imports. Russia will lose revenue, but knowing Putin's cynicism, he is likely to expect the effects on Europeans to be harsher, even to the extent that they will start anti-government protests.⤵️
The perverse scenarios in Putin's head could even contemplate that with Europe destabilized, he could do whatever he wanted in Ukraine. Sanctions are necessary and should be applied,⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
#Russia_War: The evidence of Bucha is enough to invoke that Russian forces committed war crime by targeting civilians. Genocide apparently does not apply as the crimes were not committed by military forces originating from the territory where the killing takes place. Russian⤵️
forces are an aggressor who killed Ukrainian civilians. The Genocide Convention specifies two main elements: 1) A mental element: the "intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such"; 2) A physical element, with five acts:⤵️
a) Killing members of the group (ethnic, religious etc.); b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; d) Imposing measures⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
#Russia_Sanctions: Polish PM Morawiecki expressed doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia "because the ruble has recovered." Here I see a certain misunderstanding of the meaning of sanctions. They were applied in the quest to change Russia's behaviour with ⤵️
the ultimate goal of ending the war. The main purpose of the sanctions was not to damage the ruble or the Russian economy, which are secondary effects of the sanctions. Russia's resilience in the face of sanctions has several aspects. The most important is the circumstances ⤵️
in which Moscow chose to start the war. I have written about it several times. Were it not for the energy crisis that has lasted since last year (when the military buildup began), coupled with Europe's long-term dependence on Russian energy resources, the war might not have ⤵️
Read 7 tweets

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