Long range forecasts show some unusual early season #Cyclone activity over the coming 16 days in the West Pacific and Bay of Bengal.
In particular a storm is shown developing in the Bay of Bengal - traversing the BoB before reversing direction and heading back due East.
In particular a storm is shown developing in the Bay of Bengal - traversing the BoB before reversing direction and heading back due East.
The impact of this reversal is remarkable and has potentially positive results in relation to two cyclones which are shown here spinning up on either side of the Phillipines. At the end of this 16-day animation you can see them suddenly reversing direction and heading NE.
The cause of this unusual activity appears to be related to high temperatures/high pressure over the Arabian Sea. In this Water Vapour Transport animation you can see the forecast reversal of wind/water vapour direction taking place over Southern India 12-13 April.
This animation shows the period when the storm is forecast to reverse direction - with wind lines and 850hpa temperature anomaly - i,e. deviation from normal temperatures at around 1.5km up. The hot air is a symptom of whatever is pushing the storm back.
To complete the picture for those who are curious about this phenomena, here's the corresponding South Indian Ocean IWVT plot there is a low pressure system directly south of India which seems to play a role. Also shown a strong flow of water vapour heading for East Africa.
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