Thread by @theprivacysmurf

Here's the final thread for twitter on the Q2 Forecast. Yesterday I released the #BTC cycle projection. Today will be the projections for the total #crypto market cap, the CBBI, and the 10 Year Bonds. He was yesterday's tweet for a refresher.

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https://twitter.com/theprivacysmurf/status/1510486127957856258

The projections for the total #crypto market similarly reflect peaking prices from mid-June to mid-July however past cycles have shown the weekly cycle will extend beyond the daily suggesting potentially July for the final bullish push in the market.

Now I'll move on to analysis not dictated by price. Using diverse datasets helps create a complete picture and inspires confidence in the analysis.

Let's look at the CBBI which is an "index that utilizes... 10 metrics to help... understand what stage of the... bull run and bear market cycles we are in... (CBBI) is time-independent and price-independent... indicates whether... we are approaching the top/bottom of a... cycle."

You can read more about it here. It's a very interesting tool as are the components that make up the index. They are all well-documented and trusted indicators in the space. colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/

The CBBI projections also suggest peaking behavior in June through July.

Finally, we'll move to a non-crypto asset. Bonds. This asset class is typically negatively correlated to crypto/stocks. They are considered risk-off ("safe") assets and will traditionally increase value as risky assets fall in value.

There's a discussion to be had on, let's say, the dwindling utility of bonds and their yield which could weaken the inverse relationship with #BTC in the future but until I have data to support that I'd still consider it speculation and disregard that notion.

Projections on the #10YRBond prices that negatively correlate to #BTC show the potential of a retracement coming up in mid-April and the peak still coincides with a June timeframe.

In summary, there are bullish technical signals currently that support the idea of a new bullish trend. This analysis is telling me to watch for signals on timeframes 12hrs and up for bearish indications in June to July to signal the next potential market shift to bearishness.

As with any forecasting model, price action can invalidate this and I will present that data when/if it arises. Remember, none of this is projecting any specific price of a peak. It is providing a possible timing for a peak.

I don't dabble in price predictions. They don't matter to me. I will take what the market gives. The market doesn't care what price I think will happen or the price I want.

I noticed that @woonomic is discontinuing his newsletter for many good reasons. One I disagree with though is the potential inability to forecast the maturing crypto market. I intend to show that is an inaccurate statement.

As I've documented in past tweets the methods have proven themselves each quarter since last summer, especially during the fall from the peak in November that was largely unseen by many high-level analysts.

I write a free newsletter post each Sunday. I hope you all follow me there.

The private side of the newsletter with posts during the week will provide a more comprehensive picture of the Q2 Forecast but will largely represent this same outlook.
zenalytics.substack.com

Please help me share the forecast. I encourage any and all commentary, questions, and criticism. Thanks for your time.

https://twitter.com/theprivacysmurf/status/1510863608418213894