Now, Sri Lanka needs a lot of "nails" of course. Statistics suggests ANL produces 11m units (majority of local production) instead of allowing imports.
But imports are bad right?
Not necessarily.
(2/8)
The average global cost of importing a "nail" (exc duties) is ~750 LKR per unit. ANL's production, if imported would be ~8bn.
But the average retail price that ANL sells their "nails" at is ~1800 LKR for total costs of ~20bn.
That's a ~12bn LKR difference every year.
(3/8)
What could this 12bn be used for if we imported all the "nails" ANL makes?
We could upskill all (~10k) the "nail" factory workers to make better "nails" later. We could build schools. We could train hundreds of IT technicians that bring us dollars.
Every. Single. Year.
(4/8)
But that would mean ANL and it's owner, who is called Mr. Dishonest, don't get so many profits. So what does Mr. Dishonest do?
He goes to the government, forces them to raise taxes on imported "nails", has import licenses and all sorts of nonsense to stop imports.
(5/8)
Now, Mr. Dishonest isn't doing this just with ANL, he's been doing this for so many other businesses he owns. But let's focus on ANL.
Sri Lankan consumers have been spending an extra 12 bn LKR every year to keep Mr. Dishonest richer. And losing out in the process.
(6/8)
The Rajapaksas have been a part of this. They allowed this, they encouraged this, they supported their friends over the people.
This is what corruption in Sri Lanka looks like. It is terrible because it's subtle and you can't "bring back" the stolen money anymore.
(7/8)
Everyone must realise what actually happens in Sri Lanka. It is only with proper knowledge that we can actually vote in proper policies (through leaders).
I'm going to be advocating for and explaining some contentious economic points in the days to come re #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and #IMFNow so to be open and clear, this is about what I'm trying to achieve, why I'm trying to achieve it, and what my principles here are.
(1/25)
What I'm trying to achieve here is simple.
Get as many people as possible aware of what's happening economically and what's needed to recover, and help as many people as possible, understand a pretty gatekept and unintuitive field: economics.
(2/25)
I'll be focusing on the crisis at hand to do this, and providing explanations, stories, narratives in order to improve this knowledge and understanding.
Because econ IS a complicated topic (and twitter has limits), these explanations are all oversimplifications
Let's set out our characters. Rehan represents all rich people in Sri Lanka. Pasan represents all poor people in Sri Lanka. CEB, CPC, banks, and Central Government remain players.
Let's see how Pasan gets screwed over by the rest.
(2/20)
In 2021, at different points, CPC made Rs. 10-50 losses per litre of fuel. Every single litre. So that's a massive loss.
Along with other losses, comes to around 83 billion rupees of a loss in 2021
What will happen if we don't take immediate economic action
No rate hikes=LKR falls, imports are harder, powercuts grow
No IMF=Delays international credibility, no bilateral/multilateral support
No debt suspension=Lose whatever USD we have
What will happen if we don't take short term economic action
No CB overhaul=no international acceptance
No debt restruturing=never regain int confidence
No electricity/fuel price adjustments=CEB/CPC goes bust and no have power for a while
What will happen if we don't take medium term economic action
No tax reform (raise tax/remove protection for oligarchs)=money printing+corruption increases
No privatization=more borrowing needed
No cash transfers to poor=people dying
Before 2019, SL's annual gov revenue exceeded expenses similar to how if someone with a 130k salary, had 140k expenses and 60k in loan payments.
(1/25)
So this fellow (let's assume it's a guy), is short about 70k each month. He has to borrow it, 70k every single month. Obviously, that's stupid and not sustainable - because that means the 60k in payments he has, keeps growing each month.
So what does he do?
(2/25)
Does he find a second job to supplement his income (increase taxes)? Does he work harder to try and get a promotion (increase productivity)? Does he look at his expenses and realise, maybe I shouldn't be buying fancy cars (expressways) and phones (lotus towers)?