Disclaimer first, especially since political content. Politics is not my expertise, so take THAT aspect with a grain of salt. Will do my best to keep this analysis economic. But still personal opinion
Jul 9 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
A small thing on Steven Hanke and his push for a currency board.
He works for the Cato Institute, a free-market think tank pushing for right-wing policy. That's fine, people can have views. But important to be AWARE of this bias.
Here are a few extracts from Hanke:
"A Dollarization Mission for Secretary Pompeo"
"If Secretary Pompeo wants to make life even more difficult for Beijing’s renminbi promoters, he should grab the mantle and start promoting the use of the U.S. dollar. "
Jun 27 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Why is there no fuel in Sri Lanka?
Main reason - no USD to pay for it.
Then why is there no USD?
Let me try and explain, and thereby give some hope on how we can get out of this sooner than later.
Our main source of outflows have been 3 - imports and 4 - debt repayments.
So increase 1 and 2, reduce 3 and 4. Simple, right?
May 19 • 25 tweets • 9 min read
Coming back after a few days off Twitter, thought I'd try and explain in a (hopefully) easy + visual way why, despite things being really tough right now, there's space for hope - even if it doesn't feel like it
Disclaimer - personal opinion of course, and this framework is a complete oversimplification, but hopefully this can serve as a useful introduction into why there's space for hope
May 13 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
A lot of conversation on RW as PM and what it means politically, but a quick thread on what I think a GR-Prez/RW-PM led (mostly) SLPP government means economically
What's happening in Rambukkana, and anything else that follows, is catastrophic. We can't forget the criminal economic policies that led to this or allow those who advocated for those to be the good guys.
Even in 2018, Sri Lanka was facing a long term debt issue. It was tough, it was going to be damn difficult to get through. Realistically, the only option we had to pay our debt and keep our reserves, was more debt.
So we started that.
Apr 18 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
A quick thread on how government expenditure is almost always paid for the people - in 1 of 3 ways
Our tax revenue before 2019 was about 11-12% of GDP. After the tax cuts, this came down to around 8%. Both in comparison to around 12-14% in non-debt expenditure (about 16% in 2019 due to election goodies)