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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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Apr 4 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
What was Invest #99p is now Cyclone #23p and ought to really have a name by now.

As you can see here the track model spaghetti it’s remnant are likely to being #extremeweather to NZ

THREAD on this system attached. There is more to this than just a late season cyclone.
An updated satellite presentation of storm #23p from @zoom_earth looking very cyclone like. Officially it’s still a depression from what I can see.

For NZ the issue is not cyclone winds but the atmospheric water it is generating and its capacity to drag over NZ.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Apr 4
Dear @TwitterSafety I don’t know whether this is real or not, but I do know it is suddenly being shared by a known TPLF disinformation account as news is breaking about mass graves being found in Welkaite (aka Western Tigray).
One of the replies says this is a video of military training which seems possible, but the video cold literally he from anywhere, and when it comes to misusing images and videos of atrocities, starving children and dead bodies TPLF’s disinformation army are the experts.
I appreciate @TwitterSafety that you are currently focussed Ukraine but it’s worth noting that the death toll in the Ethiopian war started by the TPLF on U.S. election night last year - civilian and military - is much higher than that yet experienced in Ukraine.
Read 9 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Apr 3
Europe is experiencing some wild weather, including Ukraine which has had a fair bit of rain & snow over the past 48 hours. This animation very clearly shows the incoming cold northerly winds colliding with tropical atmospheric rivers delivering snow from France to Belarus.
This animation zooms in on Ukraine which does not currently have functioning weather radar - so the rain/snow appears to stop at the Western border.
These animations show the rain activity - via @meteoblue over the same 24 hour period.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Apr 3
Long range forecasts show some unusual early season #Cyclone activity over the coming 16 days in the West Pacific and Bay of Bengal.

In particular a storm is shown developing in the Bay of Bengal - traversing the BoB before reversing direction and heading back due East.
The impact of this reversal is remarkable and has potentially positive results in relation to two cyclones which are shown here spinning up on either side of the Phillipines. At the end of this 16-day animation you can see them suddenly reversing direction and heading NE.
The cause of this unusual activity appears to be related to high temperatures/high pressure over the Arabian Sea. In this Water Vapour Transport animation you can see the forecast reversal of wind/water vapour direction taking place over Southern India 12-13 April.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Apr 3
With development underway of another potential cyclone near New Caledonia, NZ may get yet another #ExtremeWeather tropical driven weather event this cyclone season.

This animation shows a 10 day rain forecast with the impact of the potential storm arriving at the end on 13/4.
Here's a 24 satellite loop of the storm in question (currently Invest #99p) which has been meandering north of New Caledonia, and becoming increasingly organised.
Another view of the storm this time of IR satellite imagery which shows convective bands developing around the rotation.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Apr 1
After a lengthy period of relative quiet @wdavison10 has popped up in a new and truly terrible #HoldYourFire podcast on the conflict in Northern Ethiopia hosted the usually insightful @atwoodr, one which reflects very poorly on @CrisisGroup.
The podcast comes just 2 days after TPLF conducted an online campaign against @CrisisGroup’s @Meron_El issuing an open letter to raise their grievances.
Whilst we can’t necessarily connect these two events, the podcast is not up to @atwoodr’s usual standards and is a bit loose and stream of consciousness at times.

It’s also incendiary in the context of current domestic politics in Ethiopia. An odd approach to peace building.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Apr 1
@CrisisGroup needs to get rid of @wdavison10. New podcast just dropped full of TPLF propaganda.

I can’t even. #AfarAttackDefensive #ShireArmsFlights #TigrayBlockade all the talking points.

podcasts.apple.com/fr/podcast/hol…
It even begins with an intro which misses out the TPLF attack on the #NorthernCommand which started the war calls from Davison for #WesternTigray to be returned.

If @EroComfort wants to be taken seriously @WillDavison10 and his baggage needs to removed from the theatre.
What @CrisisGroup needs to understand is that Will’s reckons are not even close to fair and balanced. Haven’t been for months, and perhaps that’s the reason they haven’t published anything for months.
Read 16 tweets

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