Thread by @ChayuDamsinghe

I'm going to be advocating for and explaining some contentious economic points in the days to come re #SriLankaEconomicCrisis and #IMFNow so to be open and clear, this is about what I'm trying to achieve, why I'm trying to achieve it, and what my principles here are.

(1/25)

What I'm trying to achieve here is simple.

Get as many people as possible aware of what's happening economically and what's needed to recover, and help as many people as possible, understand a pretty gatekept and unintuitive field: economics.

(2/25)

I'll be focusing on the crisis at hand to do this, and providing explanations, stories, narratives in order to improve this knowledge and understanding.

Because econ IS a complicated topic (and twitter has limits), these explanations are all oversimplifications

(3/25)

This means a lot of nuance, specifics, and even data will be left out.

I'm actively deciding what to keep in and keep out, and I'm inevitably going to make mistakes that lead to confusions and wrong understandings as well. Apologies for this.

(4/25)

That is why I'll go back and make additions, admit errors, and fix things I miss. That is also why it's very helpful when questions are asked, even on "dumb" questions - since it helps anyone who reads to understand better.

(5/25)

But why do this at all?

Sri Lanka is at an absolutely critical economic emergency. No one can deny that.

This is also leading to a lot of misinformation and pain and frankly, dumb stuff going on.

This worsens things for everyone.

(6/25)

We need to believe that Sri Lankans are capable of understanding econ if explained to them, and that the lack of understanding is a key reason why things get so bad.

It's easy for policymakers to push econ knowledge away, because it allows them to get away with so much

(7/25)

So I'm trying to help there. Help as many Sri Lankans learn the basics of the Sri Lankan economic story, in the hope that there is proper push for urgent reforms but also that there is better info for the future.

(8/25)

Right now, things are bad - that's undeniable.

Unfortunately, getting out of this will likely require another tough time - reforms.

This is going to be a tough sell for sure, but a necessary one.

(9/25)

Consider that right now, we're seeing powercuts, food and gas shortages, fuel shortages, medicine shortages, and some food shortages.

This is terrible. This affects all of us, but of course affects the poorest and most vulnerable most.

(10/25)

In this context, I believe the only realistic way forward for us to solve the immediate crisis and have it stay solved for the medium term, is IMF and associated reforms.

I see no realistic way around it that doesn't significantly worsen pain.

(11/25)

Remember, the current path continuing is catastrophic. We're talking about hospitals having no medicines at all, surgeries and procedures stopped, 24 hour powercuts, people fighting to find a scrap of food to eat

Even if the IMF was evil, nothing they can do is THIS bad

(12/25)

But I also don't believe the IMF is evil.

I believe that over the last few years, the IMF is far more open to, and commonly asks for welfare to continue or increase, especially to the poor.

(13/25)

I believe that the IMF's associated reforms work in the short term, and we have many examples of countries in deep debt crisis that got out of it with those policies.

But remember, its the policies that matter. The IMF just adds credibility. Credibility we sorely need.

(14/25)

Do I have a blanket belief in everything the IMF could say? Of course not.

Free healthcare and education should be non negotiables.

I also don't believe mass privatisations will help or even be possible.

(15/25)

But I do broadly believe in capitalism and free market reforms, especially over communism - simply on historical record.

I also believe that if not for humans' natural tendency to commerce, we wouldn't have most technological innovations we have today.

(16/25)

It's not that these are perfect, but they seem to me to be the least worst system we got, especially considering humans will greed up any system we get.

Right now, IMF action is also needed because we live in a globalised, capitalised world. We have to work within it.

(17/25)

The easiest way to avoid the ills of free markets (exploitation and inequality), is to have a strong welfare system, especially aimed at the poor.

I believe that is not just desirable, but also possible. We must fight for that, IMF or not.

(18/25)

Moving forward, I'm going to get criticised by 3 groups.

1. Those who advocated for the mess of policies that got us here
2. Some academics
3. Common people who haven't been given the opportunity to learn econ

I will do all I can to explain to the non-econs all I can.

(19/25)

Academics are a different question. I've found that some (not all, not even most) academics live their life in a theoretical bubble.

From inside this bubble, I'll get criticised because some fellow who never stepped outside a university room wrote some paper somewhere.

(20/25)

Thing is, all the papers in the world aren't going to erase the fact that right now, we're in absolute terrible economic straits and a certain set of policies led us here

Theory, ideology is all nice. But it has no place in the real world. Only actions and solutions do

(21/25)

I'm glad that many academics have sense and are acting pragmatically.

But for those asking for years of powercuts, is not a solution, and I have to consider you having zero understanding of the world if you think that's possible.

And advocating for this is dangerous.

(22/25)

For those that advocated for policy that got us here, I have no respect unless they acknowledge their policy led to this, and they were mistaken.

In my eyes, they are equally responsible for this catastrophe as the leaders that listened to them.

(23/25)

We can use their words to try and show the fallacy in what they're saying to as many people as possible, but there's no point in engaging with them beyond that, since it it clear they are not in it beyond their position.

(24/25)

This thread was heavy and combative, yes. I wish I could've made it kinder. I will try to do so in the future.

For now, this will stay up. Keep asking me questions, let's do our best to address as much as possible while we can.

One day, SL will be better. Until then.

(25/25)